Analysis and forecast of the financial condition of the enterprise. Forecast analysis of the financial condition of the organization. Review of basic forecasting methods

Introduction

The purpose of financial analysis economic activity of an enterprise is to assess its current financial condition, as well as determine in what areas it is necessary to work to improve this condition. At the same time, it is desirable to have such a state of financial resources in which the enterprise, freely maneuvering funds, is able, through their effective use, to ensure the uninterrupted process of production and sales of products, as well as the costs of its expansion and renewal. Thus, the internal users of financial information in relation to a given enterprise are the enterprise management employees, on whom its future financial condition depends.

At the same time, financial condition is the most important characteristic economic activity enterprises in external environment. It determines the competitiveness of the enterprise, its potential in business cooperation, assesses the extent to which the economic interests of the enterprise itself and its partners in financial and other relations are guaranteed. Therefore, we can assume that the second main task of the analysis is to show the state of the enterprise for external consumers, the number of which increases significantly with the development of market relations. External users of financial information can be divided into two large groups:

persons and organizations that have a direct financial interest - founders, shareholders, potential investors, suppliers and buyers of products (services), various creditors, employees of the enterprise, as well as the state, primarily represented by the tax authorities. So, in particular, the financial condition of an enterprise is the main criterion for banks when deciding the feasibility or inexpediency of issuing a loan to it, and if this issue is resolved positively, at what interest and for what period;

users who have an indirect (mediated) financial interest - auditing and consulting firms, authorities government controlled, various financial institutions (exchanges, associations, etc.), legislative and statistical bodies, press and news agencies.

All these users of financial statements set themselves the task of analyzing the state of the enterprise and, on its basis, drawing conclusions about the directions of their activities in relation to the enterprise in the short or long term. Thus, in the overwhelming majority of cases, these will be conclusions about their actions in relation to this enterprise in the future, and therefore for all these persons the future (forecast) financial condition of the enterprise will be of greatest interest. This explains the extreme importance of the task of determining the forecast financial condition of an enterprise and the relevance of issues related to the development of new and improvement of existing methods for such forecasting.

The relevance of the tasks associated with forecasting the financial condition of an enterprise is reflected in one of the definitions of financial analysis used, according to which financial analysis is a process based on the study of data on the financial condition of an enterprise and the results of its activities in the past in order to assess future conditions and performance results. Thus, main task financial analysis is to reduce the inevitable uncertainty associated with making future-oriented economic decisions. With this approach, financial analysis can be used as a tool for justifying short- and long-term economic decisions and the feasibility of investments; as a means of assessing the skill and quality of management; as a way to predict future financial results. Financial forecasting can significantly improve enterprise management by ensuring the coordination of all factors of production and sales, the interconnection of the activities of all departments, and the distribution of responsibilities.

The degree of correspondence of the conclusions made during the analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise to reality is largely determined by the quality of the information support of the analysis. Despite a lot of criticism of accounting reporting in our country, entities external to the enterprise, as a rule, do not have any other information. These persons use published information and do not have access to the internal information base of the enterprise.

Classification of forecasting methods

In economically developed countries, the use of formalized financial management models is becoming increasingly widespread. The degree of formalization is directly dependent on the size of the enterprise: the larger the company, the more its management can and should use formalized approaches in financial policy. Western scientific literature notes that about 50% of large firms and about 18% of small and medium-sized firms prefer to focus on formalized quantitative methods in managing financial resources and analyzing the financial condition of an enterprise. Below is a classification of quantitative methods for forecasting the financial condition of an enterprise.

The starting point of any of the methods is the recognition of the fact of some continuity (or certain stability) of changes in indicators of financial and economic activity from one reporting period to another. Therefore, in general, a long-term analysis of the financial condition of an enterprise is a study of its financial and economic activities in order to determine the financial condition of this enterprise in the future.

The list of predicted indicators may vary significantly. This set of values ​​can be taken as the first criterion for classifying methods. So, according to the set of predicted indicators, forecasting methods can be divided into:

Methods in which one or more individual indicators are predicted that are of greatest interest and significance to the analyst, for example, sales revenue, profit, cost of production, etc.

Methods in which forecast reporting forms are constructed entirely in the standard or enlarged nomenclature of articles. Based on the analysis of data from past periods, each item (enlarged item) of the balance sheet and report is predicted and financial results. The huge advantage of the methods of this group is that the resulting reports allow a comprehensive analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise. The analyst receives maximum information that he can use for various purposes, for example, to determine acceptable growth rates production activities, to calculate the required amount of additional financial resources from external sources, calculate any financial ratios, etc.

Methods for forecasting reporting, in turn, are divided into methods in which each item is predicted separately based on its individual dynamics, and methods that take into account the existing relationship between individual items, both within one reporting form and from different forms. Indeed, various reporting lines should change dynamically in a consistent manner, since they characterize the same economic system.

Depending on the type of model used, all forecasting methods can be divided into three large groups (see Figure 1):

Expert assessment methods, which involve a multi-stage survey of experts according to special schemes and processing of the results obtained using economic statistics tools. These are the simplest and most popular methods, the history of which goes back more than one thousand years. The application of these methods in practice usually involves using the experience and knowledge of trade, financial, and production managers of the enterprise. This usually ensures that the decision is made in the easiest and fastest way. The disadvantage is the reduction or complete absence of personal responsibility for the forecast made. Expert assessments are used not only to predict the values ​​of indicators, but also in analytical work, for example, to develop weighting coefficients, threshold values ​​of controlled indicators, etc.

Stochastic methods, suggesting the probabilistic nature of both the forecast and the relationship between the studied indicators. The likelihood of obtaining an accurate forecast increases with the number of empirical data. These methods occupy a leading position in terms of formalized forecasting and vary significantly in the complexity of the algorithms used. The simplest example is to study trends in sales volumes by analyzing the growth rates of sales indicators. Forecasting results obtained by statistical methods are subject to the influence of random fluctuations in data, which can sometimes lead to serious miscalculations.

Rice. 1. Classification of methods for forecasting the financial condition of an enterprise

Stochastic methods can be divided into three typical groups, which will be named below. The choice of a method for forecasting a particular group depends on many factors, including the available source data.

The first situation is availability of time series- occurs most often in practice: a financial manager or analyst has at his disposal data on the dynamics of an indicator, on the basis of which it is necessary to build an acceptable forecast. In other words, we're talking about about identifying a trend. This can be done in various ways, the main ones being simple dynamic analysis and analysis using autoregressive dependencies.

Second situation - presence of spatial aggregate- occurs if for some reason there is no statistical data on the indicator or there is reason to believe that its value is determined by the influence of certain factors. In this case, multivariate regression analysis can be used, which is an extension of simple dynamic analysis to a multivariate case.

Third situation - the presence of a space-time complex- occurs when: a) the time series are not long enough to construct statistically significant forecasts; b) the analyst intends to take into account in the forecast the influence of factors that differ in economic nature and their dynamics. The initial data are matrixes of indicators, each of which represents the values ​​of the same indicators for different periods or for different consecutive dates.

Deterministic Methods, which assume the presence of functional or strictly determined connections, when each value of a factor characteristic corresponds to a well-defined non-random value of the resultant characteristic. As an example, we can cite the dependencies implemented within the framework of the well-known factor analysis model of the DuPont company. Using this model and substituting into it the forecast values ​​of various factors, such as sales revenue, asset turnover, degree of financial dependence and others, you can calculate the forecast value of one of the main performance indicators - the return on equity ratio.

Another very clear example is the form of a profit and loss statement, which is a tabular implementation of a strictly determined factor model that connects the resulting attribute (profit) with factors (sales income, level of costs, level of tax rates, etc.).

Here we cannot fail to mention another group of methods based on the construction of dynamic enterprise simulation models. Such models include data on planned purchases of materials and components, production and sales volumes, cost structure, investment activity of the enterprise, tax environment, etc. Processing this information within the framework of a unified financial model allows us to assess the projected financial condition of the company with a very high degree of accuracy. In reality, this kind of model can only be built using personal computers, which allow one to quickly perform a huge amount of necessary calculations. However, these methods are not the subject of this work, since they should be based on a much broader Information Support than the financial statements of the enterprise, which makes it impossible for them to be used by external analysts.

Formalized models for forecasting the financial condition of an enterprise are criticized on two main points: (a) during modeling, several forecast options can, and in fact should, be developed, and it is impossible to determine which one is better using formalized criteria; (b) any financial model only expresses in a simplified way the relationships between economic indicators. In fact, both theses hardly have a negative connotation; they merely point out to the analyst the limitations of any forecasting method that must be kept in mind when using the forecast results.

Review of basic forecasting methods

Simple dynamic analysis

Each time series value can consist of the following components: trend, cyclical, seasonal and random fluctuations. The simple dynamic analysis method is used to determine the trend of an existing time series. This component can be considered as the general direction of changes in the values ​​of the series or the main tendency of the series. Fluctuations around a trend line for periods longer than one year are called cyclical. Such fluctuations in financial and economic indicators often correspond to business cycles: slump, recovery, boom and stagnation. Seasonal fluctuations are periodic changes in the values ​​of a series throughout the year. They can be isolated after analyzing the trend and cyclical fluctuations. Finally, random fluctuations are identified by detrending, cyclical and seasonal fluctuations for a given value. The value remaining after this is the random deviation that must be taken into account when determining the likely accuracy of the adopted forecasting model.

The simple dynamic analysis method is based on the premise that the predicted indicator ( Y) changes directly (inversely) proportionally over time. Therefore, to determine the forecast values ​​of the indicator Y For example, the following relationship is built:

Where t- serial number of the period.

Regression equation parameters ( a, b) are usually found using the least squares method. There are also other adequacy criteria (loss functions), for example, the least modulus method or the minimax method. Substituting the required value into formula (1) t, the required forecast can be calculated.

Autoregressive dependencies

This method is based on a fairly obvious premise that economic processes have a certain specificity. They differ, firstly, in their interdependence and, secondly, in a certain inertia. The latter means that the value of almost any economic indicator at a point in time t depends in a certain way on the state of this indicator in previous periods (in this case we abstract from the influence of other factors), i.e. the values ​​of the forecasted indicator in past periods should be considered as factor characteristics. The autoregressive equation in its most general form has the form:

Where Y t- predicted value of the indicator Y at a point in time t;
Y t-i - indicator value Y at a point in time (t-i);
A i - i-regression coefficient.

Sufficiently accurate forecast values ​​can be obtained already with k= 1. In practice, a modification of equation (2) is also often used, introducing the time period into it as a factor t, that is, combining methods of autoregression and simple dynamic analysis. In this case, the regression equation will look like:

where j is the length of the indicator dynamics series Y, decreased by one.

To characterize the adequacy of the autoregressive equation, you can use the value of the average relative linear deviation:

Where Y * i - calculated value of the indicator Y at a point in time i;
Y i- actual value of the indicator Y at a point in time i.

If e< 0,15 , считается, что уравнение авторегрессии может использоваться при определении тренда временного ряда экономического показателя в прогнозных целях. Ввиду простоты расчета критерий e достаточно часто применяется при построении регрессионных моделей.

Multivariate regression analysis

The method is used to build a forecast of any indicator, taking into account existing relationships between it and other indicators. First, as a result of qualitative analysis, k factors (X 1 , X 2 ,..., X k ) influencing, according to the analyst, the change in the forecasted indicator Y, and most often a linear regression relationship of the type

Where A i - regression coefficients, i = 1,2,...,k.

Regression coefficient values (A 0 , A 1 , A 2 ,..., A k ) are determined by complex mathematical calculations, usually carried out using standard statistical computer programs.

The determining factor when using this method is to find correct set interrelated characteristics, the direction of the cause-and-effect relationship between them and the type of this connection, which is not always linear. The influence of these elements on the accuracy of the forecast will be discussed below.

Forecasting based on proportional dependencies

The basis for the development of the method of proportional dependencies of indicators was two main characteristics of any economic system - interconnection and inertia.

One of the obvious features of the current commercial organization as a system is the naturally coordinated interaction of its individual elements (both qualitative and quantifiable). This means that many indicators, even without being interconnected by formalized algorithms, nevertheless change in dynamics in a consistent manner. It is obvious that if a certain system is in a state of equilibrium, then its individual elements cannot act chaotically, at least the variability of actions has certain limitations.

The second characteristic - inertia - when applied to the company's activities is also quite obvious. Its meaning is that in a stable operating company with established technological processes and commercial connections there cannot be sharp “spikes” in relation to key quantitative characteristics. So, if the share of production costs in total revenue amounted to 70% in the reporting period, as a rule, there is no reason to believe that in the next period the value of this indicator will change significantly.

The method of proportional dependencies of indicators is based on the thesis that it is possible to identify a certain indicator that is the most important from the point of view of the characteristics of the company’s activities, which, thanks to this property, could be used as a base for determining the forecast values ​​of other indicators in the sense that they are “linked” to the basic indicator using simple proportional relationships. The base indicator most often used is either sales revenue or the cost of products sold (manufactured).

The sequence of procedures for this method is as follows:

Baseline is identified B(for example, sales revenue).

Derived indicators are identified, the forecasting of which is of interest (in particular, these may include indicators of financial statements in a particular nomenclature of items, since it is the statements that represent a formalized model that gives a fairly objective idea of ​​the economic potential of the company). As a rule, the need and expediency of isolating a particular derivative indicator are determined by its significance in reporting.

For each derived indicator P the type of its dependence on the base indicator is established: P=f(B). Most often, the linear form of this dependence is chosen.

When developing forecast reporting, first of all, a forecast version of the profit and loss account is drawn up, since in this case profit is calculated, which is one of the initial indicators for the balance sheet being developed.

When forecasting a balance sheet, first of all, the expected values ​​of its active items are calculated. As for passive items, work with them is completed using the method of balancing indicators, namely, the need for external sources of financing is most often identified.

The actual forecasting is carried out during simulation, when the calculations vary the rate of change in the base indicator and independent factors, and its result is the construction of several options for forecast reporting. The selection of the best of them and subsequent use as a guide is made using informal criteria.

Balance model for forecasting the economic potential of an enterprise

The essence of this method is clear from its name. The balance sheet of an enterprise can be described by various balance sheet equations that reflect the relationship between the various assets and liabilities of the enterprise. The simplest of these is the basic balance equation, which has the form:

Where A- assets, E- equity, L- obligations of the enterprise.

The left side of the equation reflects the material and financial resources of the enterprise, the right side - the sources of their formation. The predicted change in resource potential must be accompanied by: a) an inevitable corresponding change in the sources of funds; b) possible changes in their ratio. Since model (7) is additive, the same relationship will exist between growth indicators:

In practice, forecasting is carried out by using more complex balance equations and combining this method with other forecasting methods.

Analytical reporting forms

Carrying out analysis directly based on Russian financial statements is a rather labor-intensive task, since it is too a large number of calculated indicators do not allow us to identify the main trends in the financial condition of the organization. It seems even more ineffective to forecast the forms of financial statements in their standard nomenclature of items. In this regard, there is a need, before carrying out the analysis, to condense the original reporting forms by aggregating balance sheet items that are homogeneous in composition to obtain a comparative analytical balance sheet (net balance sheet), as well as an analytical profit and loss statement.

In addition, Russian reporting does not satisfy the requirement of temporal comparability of data, since the structure of reporting forms has changed several times. This reporting requirement is extremely important, since all analytical indicators calculated from its data will be useless if it is not possible to compare them over time. And, of course, in this case it will be impossible to predict the financial condition of the enterprise even in the near future. In light of the above, it becomes clear that analysis and forecasting based on Russian financial statements become possible only after bringing data for different years to some unified analytical form. At the same time, the transformation of the original forms of financial statements into analytical forms of a single type can be considered as a necessary first step of the preliminary stage preceding the analysis and forecasting of the financial condition of the enterprise .

The structure of analytical reporting forms, the degree of aggregation of articles and the list of procedures for its formation are determined by the analyst and depend on the goals of the analysis. It should be kept in mind that the level of data aggregation determines the degree of analytical reporting. Moreover, the relationship here is inversely proportional: the higher the level of aggregation, the less suitable the reporting forms are for analysis.

The structure of the analytical reporting forms used in the combined forecasting method described below is given in Appendix 1. When transformed into a comparative analytical balance sheet, the original balance sheet was consolidated, i.e. presented in the form of an aggregated comparative analytical balance sheet, in which information from individual homogeneous balance sheet items is combined into groups. The basis for grouping asset balance sheet items was the degree of their liquidity and material form, for liabilities - attribution to own and borrowed sources of property formation, and within the latter - the urgency of return.

The first line of the analytical balance sheet asset is the line “Non-current assets”, obtained as a result of the first section of the balance sheet. The second part - "Current assets" consists of articles in the "Current assets" section of the balance sheet, grouped according to the degree of their liquidity into three groups: the most liquid assets, quickly realizable assets and slow-realizable assets. Slow-moving assets, in turn, are divided into inventories and other slow-selling assets. The liability of the analytical balance sheet consists, firstly, of equity capital, defined as the total of the fourth section of the balance sheet “Capital and reserves”. In addition, the liability side of the balance sheet includes loans and borrowings, divided into short-term (repayable within 12 months) and long-term (repayable in more than 12 months). At the same time, other long-term liabilities were also reflected in the line “Long-term loans and borrowings”. The last line of the analytical balance sheet “Accounts payable” contains the amounts of accounts payable and other short-term liabilities from the original Form No. 1.

The analytical profit and loss report used in this work consists of two lines - “Revenue from sales” and “Net profit”. These are the first and last lines from Form No. 2 of the financial statements. Thus, the analytical report includes only the initial factor (revenue) and the resulting indicator (net profit), in contrast to the accounting report, which contains all the intermediate factors that influence the determination of the result.

Let us emphasize once again that the type of analytical reporting used was not chosen by chance, but was determined by the need, on the one hand, to be able to fully calculate from its data all the main indicators of the financial condition of the enterprise, and on the other, to effectively use these forms in forecast calculations using a combined method.

When carrying out calculations, analytical reporting forms were obtained from accounting forms using a personal computer. For these purposes it was used software Audit Expert of Pro-Invest-IT company. The scenario approach implemented in this product made it possible to automatically reduce data for various periods to the single analytical form described above. Also, using Audit Expert, based on the received analytical reporting forms, a system of indicators characterizing the financial condition of the enterprise was calculated, namely indicators of liquidity and solvency, sustainability, profitability and business activity of the enterprise.

Combined method

It is no coincidence that the forecasting methods described in the previous paragraphs are called basic methods. They are the basis of any models financial forecasting, however, are rarely used in practice in their pure form. In most cases, some kind of combined method is used, combining the techniques and algorithms of several of the basic ones. This is due to the presence of disadvantages and limitations in each individual basic method, which are neutralized when they are used comprehensively. Basic methods as part of combined ones complement each other. Often one of them is considered as a tool for additional control of results obtained by other methods.

The combined method studied in this work, according to the above classification, belongs to methods that predict reporting forms (in the enlarged nomenclature of articles). Forecasting takes into account not only the individual dynamics of items, but also the relationship between individual items both within one reporting form and between different forms. Figure 1 shows the connection of this method with the basic ones. As a result of forecasting, a balance sheet and a profit and loss statement for the coming period are obtained in the enlarged nomenclature of items described in the previous paragraph and given in Appendix 1.

VA - non-current assets; TA - current assets; SK - equity capital; KZ - the amount of accounts payable; T TA - duration of turnover of current assets; T KZ - average repayment period of accounts payable; B - sales revenue; P - profit remaining at the disposal of the organization; n - last reporting period; n+1 - forecast period.

The preparation of forecast reports begins with determining the expected amount of equity capital. Authorized, additional and reserve capital usually change rarely (unless another issue of shares is planned in the forecast period), so they can be included in the forecast balance sheet in the same amount as in the last reporting balance sheet. Thus, the main element due to which the amount of equity capital changes is the profit remaining at the disposal of the organization. The amount of profit can be calculated using the method of proportional dependencies, based on the value of the return on sales ratio R P in the future period, which is equal to the ratio of profit to sales revenue:

R P = P / V (9)

The forecast value of this indicator, as well as sales revenue, are determined by the autoregression method based on their individual dynamics in previous periods. It should be noted here that a much more reliable forecast of sales revenue can be obtained by expert assessments of enterprise specialists, based on past sales volumes, market conditions, production capacities, pricing policy etc. However, such assessments, as a rule, are not available to an external analyst who has only the public reporting of the enterprise at his disposal. So, the amount of equity capital in the future period is determined as its value in the last reporting period, increased by the amount of projected profit (deterministic factor method):

P SOK = SK - VA (11)

Equation (11) is a special case of the balance sheet equation, since it reflects the equality between equity capital, as a source of funds, and the types of assets for the formation of which it is directed. Thus, in fact, the balance sheet forecasting method is used here. The value of non-current assets in the forecast period is determined using the autoregression method.

The next step will be to determine the amount of accounts payable in the forecast period KZ n+1, which is associated with the value of P SOC. Indeed, accounts payable is a loan from suppliers to the enterprise and, therefore, should be considered as a source of financing. Due to the gap in the timing of repayment of accounts payable and working capital turnover, there is a need for additional financing, that is, P SOC. Let us determine the type of relationship between the values ​​of short circuit and P SOC.

If borrowed funds in the form of accounts payable are provided for a period shorter than the duration of the production and commercial cycle, then payments on obligations can only be made if the enterprise has sufficient working capital. The amount of need for this source of financing is determined by the time between the end of the use of supplier credit and the end of the production and commercial cycle (the period of turnover of current assets) (T TA - T KZ), as well as the amount of upcoming payments per unit of time P/D:

P SOK = (T TA - T KZ)*P / D (12)

On the other hand, for accounts payable turnover, by definition we have:

About short circuit = P / short circuit (13),

where P is the amount of payments to creditors.

Then the average debt repayment period will be equal to:

T KZ = D / About KZ = KZ * D / P (14),

Excluding the value P / D from formulas (12) and (14), we have:

P SOK = SC n+1 *(T TA - T SC)/ T SC (15)

Thus, the need for own working capital is determined by the amount of accounts payable, the duration of the turnover of capital invested in current assets, as well as the repayment period of accounts payable. The value of P SOC decreases as the turnover period of current assets decreases. In the case when T TA< Т КЗ, выражение в скобках формулы дает отрицательный результат, что означает отсутствие потребности в собственном капитале для формирования working capital. In this case, all current liabilities are represented only by debt to creditors.

From formula (15) for the amount of accounts payable we obtain:

SC n+1 = P SOK * T SC / (T TA - T SC) (16)

The value calculated using this formula will be the maximum possible amount of accounts payable, calculated on the assumption that the entire financing needs of the enterprise are satisfied from its own capital. Thus, the amount of accounts payable is predicted by the deterministic factor method using functional dependence (16). The value of P SOC included in formula (16) was determined by us earlier. The duration of the turnover of current assets in the forecast period T TA is determined by the autoregression method, which allows us to highlight the main trend in changes in this indicator in the enterprise. To determine the repayment period for accounts payable T KZ, we assume that in the coming period the nature of settlements with suppliers will not change. Then we can set the value of TKZ in the forecast period equal to its value in the last reporting period:

T short circuit (n+1) = T short circuit (n) (17)

Before determining the final amount of accounts payable for inclusion in the forecast balance, it is necessary to calculate the value of current assets TA(n+1). To do this, we will use the value of the turnover duration of current assets T TA, already calculated above. For turnover of current assets, by definition, we have:

About TA = B /<ТА> (18),

Where<ТА>denotes the average value of current assets for the reporting period.

Then the duration of turnover of current assets will be equal to:

T TA = D/ About TA =<ТА>*D/V (19),

where D is the duration of the reporting period.

On the other side:

<ТА>= (TA(n) + TA(n+1))/2 (20)

From (19) and (20) we have:

TA(n+1) = 2* B*T TA / D - TA(n) (21)

Substituting the values ​​already known to us into the right side of formula (21), we will determine the predicted value of current assets TA(n+1) (deterministic method).

So, for the final construction of forecast reporting forms in the enlarged nomenclature of items, we just need to determine the amounts of accounts payable and loans in the balance sheet liabilities. This is done according to the following scheme. We determine the value of the balance sheet currency as the sum of the values ​​of current and non-current assets. Then we consider the maximum amount of accounts payable KZ n+1, determined earlier by formula (16). Depending on its value, forecasting ends in one of two options:

If the sum of the accounts payable n+1 and the amount of equity capital exceeds the balance sheet currency, then the amount of accounts payable is reduced and taken equal to the difference between the balance sheet currency and the amount of equity capital. In this case, the company has enough of its own sources of financing, so in the line “Credits and borrowings” we put zero. Here we again use the basic balance sheet method of linking indicators, which is integral part the described combined method.

If own sources are not enough to satisfy the need for financing (the sum of the short term balance n+1 and the amount of equity capital is less than the balance sheet currency), then repayment of obligations to creditors is possible only if additional financial resources are attracted - bank loans. This will affect the duration of the production and commercial cycle. The turnover of funds will slow down due to rising costs, which will now include bank interest for using the loan. This will lead to an increase in the gap between the turnover period of current assets and the period for repayment of accounts payable. Consequently, the total need for PF financing, represented by equity capital and bank loans, will increase. In work (8) it is shown that the value of PF can be determined by the formula:

P F = TA*(T TA - T KZ) / TA (22)

The value of the line “Credits and borrowings” is defined as the difference between the total need for financing P F and the amount of own working capital already calculated by us using formula (11) in the forecast period P SOC. The line “Accounts payable and other liabilities” reflects the amount that brings the total liabilities of the balance sheet to the value of the balance sheet currency determined by active items (balance sheet method).

The combined method studied in this work is one of many fundamentally possible for constructing forecast reporting forms. Obviously, conclusions regarding the comparison of various financial forecasting methods should be made based on a comparison of the accuracy of the resulting forecasts. Theoretical issues related to determining the accuracy of predictive models are discussed in the next paragraph.

Forecast accuracy

The main criteria for assessing the effectiveness of the model used in forecasting are the accuracy of the forecast and the completeness of the presentation of the future financial state of the enterprise. From the point of view of completeness, the best methods are those that allow you to construct forecast reporting forms. In this case, the future state of the enterprise can be analyzed in no less detail than its current position. The issue of forecast accuracy is somewhat more complex and requires closer attention. Forecast accuracy or error is the difference between the predicted and actual values. In each specific model, this value depends on a number of factors.

Historical data used in developing a forecasting model is extremely important. Ideally, it is desirable to have a large amount of data over a significant period of time. In addition, the data used must be “typical” in terms of the situation. Stochastic forecasting methods that use the apparatus of mathematical statistics impose very specific requirements on historical data, if these requirements are not met, the forecasting accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Data must be reliable, comparable, representative enough to demonstrate patterns, homogeneous and stable.

The accuracy of the forecast clearly depends on the correct choice of the forecasting method in a particular case. However, this does not mean that only one model is applicable in each case. It is possible that in some cases several different models will produce relatively reliable estimates. The main element in any forecasting model is the trend or line of the main tendency of the series. Most models assume that the trend is linear, but this assumption is not always consistent and can negatively affect the accuracy of the forecast. The accuracy of the forecast is also affected by the method used to separate seasonal fluctuations from the trend - addition or multiplication. When using regression methods, it is extremely important to correctly identify cause-and-effect relationships between various factors and incorporate these relationships into the model.

It is important to remember that errors in forecasting reporting lines and errors in determining performance indicators (financial ratios) based on them in most cases do not coincide. Indeed, let some coefficient F be defined as follows:

F = (x + y) / z (23),

where x, y, z are some lines of the accounting or analytical balance sheet.

This is a fairly typical look for financial indicators. And let the absolute row forecast errors be dx, dy, dz, respectively. Then the absolute forecast error F will be equal to:

That is, if, for example, the forecast accuracy of each of the lines x, y and z was 10%, then, putting x=y, from formula (25) we obtain the accuracy of determining F:

Thus, the accuracy of the forecast of financial ratios in methods based on the construction of forecast reporting is always lower than the accuracy with which the forecast values ​​of the reporting lines themselves are determined. Therefore, if the analyst, as it should be, has certain requirements for the accuracy of determining financial ratios, then a method should be chosen that provides even higher accuracy of the forecast of reporting lines.

Before a model can be used to make actual forecasts, it must be tested for objectivity to ensure the accuracy of the forecasts. This can be achieved in two different ways:

The results obtained from the model are compared with actual values ​​over a period of time when they appear. The disadvantage of this approach is that testing the “impartiality” of the model can take a long time, since the model can only be truly tested over a long period of time.

The model is built based on a truncated set of available historical data. The remaining data can be used for comparison with the forecasts obtained using this model. This kind of test is more realistic, since it actually simulates the forecast situation. The disadvantage of this method is that the most recent, and therefore the most significant, indicators are excluded from the process of forming the initial model.

In light of the above regarding model validation, it becomes clear that in order to reduce the expected errors, changes will have to be made to the existing model. Such changes are made throughout the entire period of application of the model in real life. Continuous modification is possible with respect to trend, seasonal and cyclical fluctuations, and any cause-and-effect relationship used. These changes are then verified using the methods already described. Thus, the process of developing a model includes several stages: data collection, development of the initial model, verification, refinement - and again all over again based on the continuous collection of additional data in order to ensure the reliability of the model as a source of forecast information about the financial position of the enterprise.

When developing any of the forecasting models, it is assumed that the situation in the future will not differ much from the present. In other words, all relevant factors are assumed to be either included in the forecasting model or to remain constant over the entire time period over which it is used. However, a model is always a coarsening of the real situation by selecting from an infinite number of operating factors a limited number of those that are considered the most important based on the specific goals of the analysis. The accuracy and efficiency of the constructed model will directly depend on the accuracy of the validity of such selection. When using a model for forecasting, one should remember the existence of factors that are not consciously or unconsciously included in it, which nevertheless influence the state of the enterprise in the future.

Literature

About accounting. the federal law Russian Federation dated November 21, 1996 No. 129-FZ (as amended by Federal Law dated July 23, 1998 No. 123-FZ).

On the annual financial statements of organizations. Order of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation of November 12, 1996 No. 97.

Regulations on accounting"Accounting statements of an organization" (PBU 4/99). Order of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation dated July 6, 1999 No. 43n.

M.I. Bakanov, A.D. Sheremet "Theory economic analysis". Moscow, "Finance and Statistics", 1998.

V.V. Kovalev "Introduction to financial management". Moscow, "Finance and Statistics", 1999.

V.V. Kovalev " The financial analysis". Moscow, "Finance and Statistics", 1999.

A.I. Kovalev, V.P. Privalov "Analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise." Moscow, "Center for Economics and Marketing", 1997

L.V. Dontsova, N.A. Nikiforova "Comprehensive analysis of financial statements." Moscow, "Business and Service", 1999

O.V.Efimova "Financial analysis". Moscow, "Accounting", 1998

V.G. Artemenko, M.V. Bellendir "Financial analysis". Moscow, "DIS", 1997

R. Thomas "Quantitative methods for analyzing economic activity." Moscow, "Business and Service", 1999

A.M. Dubrov, V.S. Mkhitaryan, L.I. Troshin "Multivariate statistical methods." Moscow, "Finance and Statistics", 1998

Appendix 1. Analytical reporting forms

Analytical balance

Analytical profit and loss report

Send your good work in the knowledge base is simple. Use the form below

Students, graduate students, young scientists who use the knowledge base in their studies and work will be very grateful to you.

Introduction

1. Analysis of the financial condition of an economic entity

2.1 Analysis and models for assessing the property status of an enterprise

3. Assessment of the general financial condition of the enterprise using the example of Cameo LLC

3.3 Assessment of production activities

3.4 Business activity assessment

3.5 Financial stability assessment

Conclusion

List of used literature

Introduction

One of the purposes of financial analysis is to assess the financial condition of an enterprise. Since the financial condition of an enterprise is characterized by a set of indicators that reflect the process of formation and use of its financial resources, in a market economy it reflects the final results of the enterprise’s activities. Financial analysis is an indispensable element of both financial management at an enterprise and its economic relationships with partners, with the financial and credit system, with tax authorities, etc. This shows the importance of assessing the financial condition of an enterprise. And that this problem is the most pressing in our country, during the transition to a developed market economy, is obvious and indisputable.

The tasks posed in this work coincide with the tasks of financial analysis:

Identification of changes in indicators of the financial condition of the enterprise;

Identification of facts affecting the financial condition of the enterprise;

Assessment of quantitative and qualitative changes in the financial position of the enterprise;

Assessment of the financial position of the enterprise as of a certain date;

Determination of trends in changes in the financial condition of the enterprise.

The purpose of this work is to conduct a general assessment of the financial condition of a particular enterprise (in this case, Cameo LLC). Also give an assessment not only from a quantitative side, but also from an analytical point of view, i.e. characterize those quantitative changes that will be identified when making calculations for the period 2006-2007.

1.Analysis of the financial condition of a business entity

1.1 Concept, meaning of the financial condition of the enterprise

The financial condition of an enterprise (FSP) refers to the ability of an enterprise to finance its activities. It is characterized by the provision of financial resources necessary for the normal functioning of the enterprise, the feasibility of their placement and efficiency of use, financial relationships with other legal and individuals, solvency and financial stability.

Analysis of the financial condition of an enterprise is based on indicators characterizing the degree of liquidity of the enterprise, its business activity, the effectiveness of managing sources of funds, profitability and market activity of the company.

FSP can be stable, unstable and crisis. The ability of an enterprise to make payments on time and to finance its activities on an expanded basis indicates its good financial condition. FSP depends on the results of its production, commercial and financial activities. If production and financial plans are successfully implemented, then this has a positive effect on the FSP, and, conversely, as a result of failure to fulfill the plan for the production and sale of products, its cost increases, revenue and the amount of profit decrease, therefore, the FSP and its solvency deteriorate.

A stable financial position, in turn, has a positive impact on the implementation production plans and providing production needs with the necessary resources. Therefore, financial activities as component economic activity is aimed at ensuring the systematic receipt and expenditure of monetary resources, implementing accounting discipline, achieving rational proportions of equity and borrowed capital and its most efficient use. The main goal of financial activity is to decide where, when and how to use financial resources for the effective development of production and maximum profit.

To survive in a market economy and prevent an enterprise from going bankrupt, you need to know well how to manage finances, what the capital structure should be in terms of composition and sources of education, what share should be taken by own and borrowed funds. You should also know such concepts of a market economy as business activity, liquidity, solvency, creditworthiness of an enterprise, profitability threshold, margin of financial stability (safety zone), degree of risk, the effect of financial leverage and others, as well as the methodology for their analysis. The main sources of information for the analysis of FSP are the reporting balance sheet (Form No. 1), profit and loss statement (Form No. 2), capital flow statement (Form No. 3) and other reporting forms, primary and analytical accounting data, which decipher and detail individual balance sheet items.

1.2 Goals and objectives of financial analysis of an enterprise

Financial analysis in the financial management system of an enterprise in the most general view is a way of accumulating, transforming and using financial information with the purpose of:

Assess the current and future property and financial condition of the enterprise;

Assess the possible and appropriate pace of development of the enterprise from the standpoint of their financial support;

Identify available sources of funds and assess the possibility and feasibility of their mobilization;

Predict the position of the enterprise in the capital market.

The purpose of this analysis is to determine whether profitable investment funds to ensure maximum profit and eliminate the risk of loss.

The purpose of the analysis is not only to establish and evaluate the FSP, but also to constantly carry out work aimed at improving it. Analysis of the FSP shows in which areas this work should be carried out and makes it possible to identify the most important aspects and weakest positions in the FSP. In accordance with this, the results of the analysis answer the question of what are the most important ways to improve the FSP in a specific period of its activity. But the main goal of the analysis is to promptly identify and eliminate shortcomings in financial activities and find reserves for improving the financial support system and its solvency. To assess the stability of the FSP, a whole system of indicators characterizing changes is used:

capital structure of the enterprise according to its allocation to sources of education;

efficiency and intensity of its use;

solvency and creditworthiness of the enterprise;

reserve of its financial stability.

As part of financial analysis, the following tasks are solved:

Firstly, the degree of balance between the movement of material and financial resources is revealed, the flows of equity and borrowed capital are assessed in the process of economic circulation, aimed at extracting maximum or optimal profit, increasing financial stability, etc.;

Secondly, the correct use is assessed Money to maintain an efficient capital structure;

Thirdly, it becomes possible to control the correctness of the organization’s financial flows, compliance with norms and standards for the expenditure of financial and material resources, feasibility of costs.

The components of diagnosing the financial condition of an enterprise are:

Collection and analytical processing of initial information for the period being assessed;

Justification of the system of indicators used and their classification;

Determining the type of financial stability of the enterprise.

Financial analysis is an essential element of financial management and auditing.

1.3 Methodology for analyzing financial condition

The methodology for analyzing the financial condition of an enterprise should consist of three large interconnected blocks:

Analysis of the economic potential of an economic entity, which includes an analysis of the property status: the composition and dynamics of the enterprise’s property and the sources of its formation (construction of an analytical balance sheet, vertical balance sheet analysis, horizontal analysis, study of qualitative changes in the property status);

Analysis of the financial position of an enterprise based on financial ratios, including assessment of performance (business activity and profitability), financial stability, liquidity, solvency and creditworthiness of the enterprise;

Development of possible prospects for the development of the enterprise.

Exist various ways conducting financial analysis (methods of reading financial statements), among which the most important are: 1. Horizontal analysis. 2.Vertical analysis. 3.Analysis of financial ratios. 4.Trend analysis. 5. Comparative analysis. 6.Factor analysis.

2. Methodology for assessing and analyzing the financial condition of an enterprise

2.1 Analysis and models for assessing property status

The financial condition of an enterprise is characterized by the effective placement and use of funds (assets), their sufficiency for current and future economic activities and the sources of their formation (equity capital and liabilities, i.e. liabilities). Therefore, a preliminary assessment of the financial position of the enterprise is carried out on the basis of information presented in the balance sheet of the enterprise and its annexes.

At this stage of analysis, an initial idea of ​​the activities of an economic entity is formed, changes in the composition of the enterprise’s property and their sources are identified, and relationships between indicators are established.

For a general assessment of the dynamics of the financial condition of an enterprise, balance sheet items should be grouped into separate specific groups based on liquidity (asset items) and maturity of liabilities (liability items). Based on the aggregated balance sheet, the structure of the enterprise's property is analyzed.

When analyzing the comparative balance sheet, it is necessary to pay attention to the change in the share of the amount of own working capital in the value of the property, to the ratio of the growth rates of equity and borrowed capital, as well as to the ratio of the growth rates of receivables and payables. A study of the structure of the balance sheet liability allows us to establish one of the possible reasons for the financial instability (sustainability) of the organization. For example, increasing the share of own funds from any source helps to strengthen the financial stability of the organization. At the same time, the presence of retained earnings can be considered as a source of replenishment of working capital and reduction of the level of short-term accounts payable.

In order to draw accurate conclusions about the reasons for changes in this proportion in the structure of assets, it is necessary to conduct a more detailed analysis of the sections and individual items of the balance sheet asset, in particular, to assess the state of the organization’s production potential, the efficiency of use of fixed assets and intangible assets, the turnover rate of current assets and etc.

In addition, a detailed analysis of the composition and movement of assets can be carried out using data from the appendix to the balance sheet (form No. 5).

The presence of intangible assets in the organization's assets (lines 110-112) indirectly characterizes the strategy chosen by the organization as innovative, since it invests in patents, licenses, and other intellectual property.

When studying the structure of inventories, it is advisable to focus on identifying trends in changes in such elements of current assets as raw materials, supplies and other similar assets, costs in work in progress, finished goods and goods for resale, and shipped goods.

An increase in the share of industrial inventories may indicate:

Increasing the production potential of the organization;

The desire, through investments in inventories, to protect the organization’s monetary assets from depreciation under the influence of inflation;

The irrationality of the chosen economic strategy, as a result of which a significant part of current assets is immobilized in inventories, whose liquidity may be low.

The stability of the financial position of an enterprise largely depends on the feasibility and correctness of investing financial resources in assets. During the operation of the enterprise, both the size of assets and their structure undergo constant changes. The most general idea of ​​the qualitative changes that have taken place in the structure of funds and their sources, as well as the dynamics of these changes, can be obtained using vertical and horizontal analysis of reporting.

Vertical analysis shows the structure of the enterprise's funds and their sources. The criteria for changes in the property status of the enterprise that have taken place and the degree of their progress are indicators such as the share of the active part of fixed assets in the active part, the shelf life coefficient, the share of quickly salable assets, the share of leased fixed assets, the share of receivables.

Indicators characterizing the property status of the enterprise are:

The sum of economic assets owned and disposed of by an enterprise (NBV) gives a generalized valuation of the size of the enterprise as a whole. This is an accounting assessment of assets listed on the balance sheet of an enterprise. The growth of this indicator indicates an increase in the property potential of the enterprise. When analyzing balance sheets in an assessment, this indicator is calculated by subtracting regulatory items from the balance sheet total.

NBV=TA-LS-TS-OD, (1)

where NBV is the amount of economic assets owned and disposed of by the enterprise;

TA - total assets on the balance sheet;

LS-losses;

TS—own shares in the portfolio;

OD-debt of the founders for contributions to the authorized capital.

The share of the active part of fixed assets () is calculated according to the data in the “Appendix to accounting analysis” (as well as the three subsequent indicators). According to regulatory documents, the active part of fixed assets means machinery, equipment and vehicles. The growth of this indicator in dynamics is regarded as a favorable trend.

Cost of the active part of the OS / cost of the OS (2)

The depreciation rate () characterizes the share of the cost of fixed assets written off as expenses in subsequent periods in the original (replacement) cost. Used in analysis as a characteristic of the state of fixed assets. Calculated using the formula:

Accumulated depreciation/initial (recovery) cost of OS (3)

Page 394 of the certificate for section 3, form No. 5/page 370, form No. 5 (4)

The renewal ratio () shows what portion of the fixed assets available at the end of the reporting period consists of new fixed assets.

Cost of received (new) OS for the period/cost

OS at the end of the period (5)

The disposal ratio () shows what part of the fixed assets with which the enterprise began operations in the reporting period was disposed of due to disrepair and other reasons.

Cost of retired (written off) fixed assets for the period/cost (6)

OS at the beginning of the period.

2.2 Analysis and models for assessing liquidity and solvency

The financial condition of an enterprise from a short-term perspective is assessed by indicators of liquidity and solvency, which in the most general form characterize whether it can timely and fully make payments on short-term obligations to counterparties.

The need to analyze balance sheet liquidity arises in market conditions due to increasing financial restrictions and the need to assess the solvency of an enterprise, that is, its ability to timely and fully pay all its obligations. Balance sheet liquidity is defined as the degree to which an enterprise's liabilities are covered by its assets, the period of transformation of which into cash corresponds to the period of repayment of liabilities. The less time it takes to this type assets acquired monetary form, the higher its liquidity.

Analysis of balance sheet liquidity consists of comparing funds for an asset, grouped by the degree of their liquidity and arranged in descending order of liquidity, with liabilities for a liability, grouped by their maturity dates and arranged in ascending order of maturity.

To determine the liquidity of the balance sheet, you should compare the results of the asset and liability groups. The balance is considered absolutely liquid if the following relationships exist:

A 1 P 1 , A 2 P 2 , A Z P Z , A 4 P 4 .

The fulfillment of the first three inequalities entails the fulfillment of the fourth inequality, therefore it is essential to compare the results of the first three groups for assets and liabilities. The fourth inequality is of a “balancing” nature; at the same time, it has a deep economic meaning, since its implementation indicates compliance with the minimum condition for financial stability - the presence of the enterprise’s own working capital.

In the case when one or more inequalities have a sign opposite to that fixed in optimal option, balance sheet liquidity differs to a greater or lesser extent from absolute. In this case, the lack of funds in one group of assets is compensated by their surplus in another group, although compensation in this case takes place only in value, since in a real payment situation less liquid assets cannot replace more liquid ones. Therefore, if one or more ratios do not correspond to absolute liquidity, then there is insufficient liquidity.

Table 1

Grouping of balance sheet items by degree of liquidity and maturity of liabilities

Comparison of the most liquid funds and quickly realizable assets with the most urgent obligations and short-term liabilities allows you to find out current liquidity. Comparison of slowly selling assets with long-term and medium-term liabilities reflects promising liquidity.

* current liquidity, which indicates the solvency (+) or insolvency (---) of the organization for the period of time closest to the moment in question:

TL=(A1 +A2) - (P1 +P2); (7)

* prospective liquidity is a forecast of solvency based on a comparison of future receipts and payments:

PL = A3 - PZ. (8)

Comparison of the results of the first group by asset and liability, i.e. A 1 and P 1 (terms up to 3 months), reflect the ratio of current payments and receipts.

Comparison of the results of the second group by asset and liability, i.e. A 2 and P 2 (terms from 3 to 6 months), shows a trend of increasing or decreasing current liquidity in the near future. A comparison of the totals for assets and liabilities for the third and fourth groups reflects the ratio of payments and receipts in the relatively distant future. The analysis carried out according to this scheme fairly fully represents the financial situation from the point of view of the possibilities of timely settlements.

Thus, the analysis of balance sheet liquidity comes down to checking whether the liabilities in the liabilities side of the balance sheet are covered by assets whose conversion period into cash is equal to the maturity period of the liabilities.

The general indicator of balance sheet liquidity should be used for a comprehensive assessment of the liquidity of the balance sheet as a whole. Using this indicator, changes in the financial situation in the organization are assessed from the point of view of liquidity. It shows the ratio of the sum of all liquid funds of the enterprise to the sum of all payment obligations (short-term, long-term and medium-term), provided that various groups of liquid funds and payment obligations are included in the specified amounts with weighting coefficients that take into account their significance from the point of view in terms of timing of receipt of funds and repayment of obligations. This indicator allows you to compare the balance sheets of an enterprise relating to different reporting periods, as well as the balance sheets various enterprises and find out which balance is more liquid.

Column = (line 290-line 230)/(line 610+line 620+line 660) form No. 1 (9)

The absolute liquidity ratio is equal to the ratio of the value of the most liquid assets to the sum of the most urgent obligations and short-term liabilities. The most liquid assets, as when grouping balance sheet items to analyze balance sheet liquidity, mean the enterprise's cash and short-term securities. Short-term liabilities of an enterprise, represented by the sum of the most urgent liabilities and short-term liabilities, include: accounts payable and other liabilities; loans not repaid on time; short-term loans and borrowed funds.

Cal = (line 260+line 250-line 252)/(line 610+line 620+line 660) form No. 1 (10)

The absolute liquidity ratio characterizes the solvency of the enterprise as of the balance sheet date.

To calculate the critical liquidity ratio (another name is the intermediate coverage ratio), accounts receivable and other assets are included in the numerator of the relative indicator. It reflects the projected payment capabilities of the enterprise, subject to timely settlements with debtors.

K sl=(line 240+line 250+line 260)/(line 610+line 620+line 660) form No. 1 (11)

The critical liquidity ratio characterizes the expected solvency of the enterprise for a period equal to the average duration of one turnover of receivables.

The level of the coverage ratio depends on the industry of production, the length of the production cycle, the structure of inventories and costs and a number of other factors.

The current liquidity ratio characterizes the expected solvency of the enterprise for a period equal to the average duration of one turnover of all current assets.

The current liquidity ratio allows you to determine the ratio of current assets to cover short-term liabilities. This is the main indicator of solvency. The normal value of this indicator is considered to be from 1 to 2.

table 2

Optimal values ​​of liquidity ratios

During the analysis, each of the coefficients given in Table 2 is calculated at the beginning and end of the period. If the actual value of the coefficient does not correspond to the normal limit, then it can be estimated by its dynamics (increase or decrease in value).

The signal indicator in which the financial condition is manifested is the solvency of the enterprise, which means its ability to timely and fully satisfy the payment requirements of suppliers of equipment and materials in accordance with business contracts, repay loans, pay staff, and make payments to the budget. The ability to repay debt obligations regularly and on time is ultimately determined by the company’s availability of funds, which depends on the extent to which the partners fulfill their obligations to the company. In addition, with a certain amount of sources of funds from the enterprise, the more money, the smaller the other asset elements. In the process of turnover of funds, money is either released or redirected as costs for replenishing non-current and current assets.

A deeper assessment of solvency is made using solvency ratios, which are relative values. One of the main indicators characterizing the solvency of an enterprise is the availability of its own working capital, which can be defined as the amount by which total amount working capital usually exceeds the amount of short-term liabilities.

A lack of own working capital can lead to bankruptcy of an enterprise, therefore changes in the amount of own working capital from one reporting period to another are analyzed with great attention.

The value of this indicator is determined by the equity ratio, which is calculated as the ratio of the difference between capital and reserves and the actual value of non-current assets to the actual value of current assets.

Since the concepts of solvency and liquidity of an enterprise are close in essence, the liquidity ratios discussed above also characterize the solvency of the analyzed enterprise.

If the current liquidity ratio at the end of the reporting period is less than 2, and the equity ratio at the end of the reporting period is less than 0.1, the analyzed enterprise is declared insolvent and the loss of solvency ratio is calculated for a period of 3 months.

Increasing the share of debt capital in the capital structure of an enterprise is considered risky. The enterprise is obliged to pay interest on loans on time and repay received loans in a timely manner. And this does not depend on the level of profit. The higher the ratio, the greater the enterprise's debt and the lower the assessment of the level of long-term solvency.

Creditworthiness, that is, the ability of an enterprise to repay loans on time, is assessed in general in the same way as solvency. It should be noted that creditworthiness is not only the ability of an enterprise to repay a loan, but also to pay interest on it. Therefore, to determine creditworthiness, a special system of indicators has been developed; for this, consider Table 3.

Table 3

Scheme for assessing the creditworthiness of an enterprise

1. The ratio of profit to net assets shows how effectively assets are used to create profit.

2. The ratio of profit to sales revenue. For this indicator, profit from sales is taken into account. This indicator is very important for assessing the possible increase in profits in the event of an increase in sales volume.

3. The ratio of sales volume to net assets. The growth of this indicator is favorable for the enterprise, but only on the condition that sales are not unprofitable.

4. The ratio of sales volume to the cost of fixed assets. This indicator evaluates the efficiency of use of buildings, structures, machinery, and equipment.

5. Ratio of sales revenue to net current assets.

Net current assets are the current assets minus the company's short-term debts. Shows the efficiency of using current assets. A high level of this indicator favorably characterizes the creditworthiness of the enterprise. 6. The ratio of sales proceeds to equity capital (capital and reserves). This is the turnover of your own sources of funds.

7. Ratio of sales revenue to inventories. The indicator gives an approximate determination of the period for which reserves are needed (for example, its value equal to 4:1 on the annual balance sheet indicates a three-month inventory turnover). A high level of the indicator indicates rapid inventory turnover.

8. Ratio of fixed assets to asset value.

9. Ratio of inventories to net current assets. This is an estimate of the level of working capital associated with production inventories, work in progress, finished products. An increase in the indicator may mean the accumulation of obsolete inventories or difficulties in marketing products.

10. Ratio of short-term debt to capital and reserves. If short-term debt is several times less than equity, then you can pay off all creditors in full.

11. Ratio of accounts receivable to sales revenue. This indicator gives an idea of ​​the average length of time it takes to collect money owed from customers. For example, a ratio of 1:4 means a three-month receivables maturity. Acceleration of accounts receivable turnover, i.e., a decrease in the indicator, can be considered as a sign of an increase in the creditworthiness of the enterprise, since customer debts are quickly converted into money.

12. Ratio of current assets to short-term debt. This indicator is the current ratio, which was discussed in detail above.

13. The ratio of liquid assets to short-term debt of the enterprise. Liquid assets refer to current assets minus inventories and other items that cannot be immediately converted into cash. This indicator is close in content to the general coverage ratio discussed above.

2.3 Analysis and models for assessing financial stability

An assessment of the financial condition of an organization will be incomplete without an analysis of financial stability. The task of financial stability analysis is to assess the size and structure of assets and liabilities. This is necessary to answer the questions: how independent is the organization from a financial point of view, is the level of this independence increasing or decreasing, and whether the state of its assets and liabilities meets the objectives of its financial and economic activities

In order for the solvency condition to be met, it is necessary that cash and settlement funds, as well as tangible current assets, cover short-term liabilities. It is necessary to determine which absolute indicators reflect the essence of financial stability. The answer has to do with the balance sheet model from which the analysis is based. In market conditions, this model looks like this:

OS + ZZ + DS + U = SS + DK + KK + S + R P, (12)

where are the conditionals

OS - fixed assets and investments;

ZZ - inventories and costs;

DS cash, short-term financial investments, settlements (accounts receivable) and other assets;

SS - sources of own funds;

CC - short-term loans and borrowed funds;

DC - long-term loans and borrowed funds;

C - loans not repaid and term;

R P - settlements (accounts payable) and other liabilities.

The ratio of the cost of material working capital and the values ​​of own and borrowed sources of their formation determines the stability of the financial condition of the enterprise. The provision of reserves and costs with sources of formation is the essence of financial stability, while solvency is its external manifestation.

The most general indicator of financial stability is the surplus or shortage of sources of funds for the formation of reserves and costs, obtained in the form of the difference in the value of sources of funds and the value of reserves and costs. This refers to the provision of certain types of sources (own, credit and other borrowed), since the sufficiency of the sum of all possible types of sources (including short-term accounts payable and other liabilities) is guaranteed by the identity of the totals of the asset and liability of the balance sheet.

To characterize the sources of reserves and costs, several indicators are used, reflecting different degrees of coverage different types sources:

Availability of own working capital, equal to the difference in the amount of sources of own funds and the amount of fixed assets and investments:

SOS = SS - OS - U (13)

Availability of own and long-term borrowed sources of formation of reserves and costs or operating capital obtained from the previous indicator by an increase in the amount of long-term loans and borrowed funds:

FC = (SS + DK) - OS - U (14)

The total value of the main sources of formation of inventories and costs, equal to the sum of the previous indicator and the value of short-term loans and borrowed funds (which in this case do not include loans that are not repaid on time):

VI = (SS + DK) + KK- OS - U (15)

Each of the given indicators of the availability of sources for the formation of reserves and costs should be reduced by the amount of immobilization of working capital. Immobilization may be hidden in the composition of both inventories and debtors and other assets, but determining its value is possible only within the framework of internal analysis based on accounting data. The criterion here should be low liquidity or complete non-liquidity of the detected doubtful amounts.

Since long-term loans and borrowed funds are used mainly for capital investments and for the acquisition of fixed assets, in fact the availability indicator (SOS) reflects the adjusted amount of own working capital. Therefore, the name “availability of own and long-term borrowed sources” only indicates the fact that the initial value of own working capital (SOC) is increased by the amount of long-term loans and borrowed funds.

Three indicators of the availability of sources for the formation of reserves and costs correspond to three indicators of the provision of reserves and costs with sources of their formation:

Excess (+) or shortage (-) of own working capital

± F S = SOS - ZZ (16)

Excess (+) or deficiency (-) of own and long-term borrowed sources of formation of reserves and costs

±F T = KF - ZZ (17)

Excess (+) or deficiency (-) of the total amount of the main sources for the formation of reserves and costs

±F O = VI - ZZ (18)

Calculation of three indicators of the provision of reserves and costs with sources of their formation allows us to classify financial situations according to the degree of their stability.

It is possible to distinguish four types of financial stability, which are reflected in Table 4:

Table 4

Indicators by type of financial stability

1) absolute stability of financial condition, which is rare and represents an extreme type of financial stability, i.e. three-component indicator of the type of financial situation: S = (1,1,1). It is given by the conditions

ZZ< СОС + КК; (19)

2) normal stability of the financial condition of the enterprise, guaranteeing its solvency, i.e. S = (0,1,1):

ZZ = SOS + KK ; (20)

3) an unstable financial condition associated with a violation of solvency, in which, nevertheless, it remains possible to restore balance by replenishing sources of own funds and increasing one’s own working capital, i.e. S = (0,0,1).

ZZ = SOS + KK + C°, (21)

where C° are sources that ease financial tension;

CC - bank loans against inventory items, taking into account the amounts offset by the bank when lending.

If the conditions are not met, then financial instability is considered abnormal and reflects a tendency towards a significant deterioration in financial condition.

4) a financial crisis in which the enterprise is on the verge of bankruptcy, since in this situation the company’s cash, short-term securities and receivables do not even cover its accounts payable and overdue loans, i.e. S = (0,0,0).

ZZ SOS + KK. (22)

Sustainability can be restored through reasonable reductions in inventory levels and costs.

An essential characteristic of the stability of the financial condition is the maneuverability coefficient, equal to the ratio of the enterprise's own working capital to the total amount of sources of own funds. It shows what part of the enterprise’s own funds is in mobile form, allowing relatively free maneuvering of these funds. A high ratio value positively characterizes the financial condition.

The agility coefficient is complemented by the stock ratio of own working capital. It is determined at the beginning and at the end of the reporting period as the ratio of the amount of own working capital to the amount of the enterprise's reserves.

One of the most important characteristics of the stability of the financial condition of an enterprise and its independence from borrowed sources of funds is the autonomy coefficient, equal to the share of sources of funds in the total balance sheet. The normal minimum value of the autonomy coefficient is estimated at 0.5. The normal limit Y 0.5 means that all the obligations of the enterprise can be covered by its own funds. Compliance with the restriction is important not only for the enterprise itself, but also for its creditors. An increase in the autonomy coefficient indicates an increase in the financial independence of the enterprise and a decrease in the risk of financial difficulties in the future. From the point of view of creditors, this trend increases the company’s guarantee of its obligations. The autonomy coefficient is determined at the beginning and at the end of the reporting period as the ratio of the amount of equity capital to the amount of the entire property of the enterprise.

The coefficient of financial dependence is the inverse indicator of the coefficient of concentration of equity capital (autonomy). The growth of this indicator in dynamics means an increase in the share of borrowed funds in the total amount of sources. If its value decreases to 1, this means that all financing is provided from own sources.

The financing ratio (the ratio of own and borrowed funds) gives the most general assessment of the financial stability of an enterprise. For example, its value at the level of 0.5 shows that for every ruble of own funds invested in the assets of the enterprise, there are 50 kopecks. borrowed sources. An increase in the indicator indicates an increase in the enterprise’s dependence on external financial sources, that is, in a certain sense, a decrease in its financial stability.

The financial stability coefficient is the ratio of the total value of own and long-term borrowed sources of funds with the total value of non-current and current assets. It shows what proportion of assets is financed from sustainable sources. In addition, it reflects the degree of independence (dependence) of the enterprise on short-term borrowed sources of coverage.

2.4 Analysis and models for assessing business activity

Traditionally, economic analysis deals with the comparison of actual data on the results of the production and economic activities of an enterprise with planned indicators, identifying and assessing deviations of the fact from the plan. Then the total amount of deviations was decomposed into individual amounts due to the influence of various factors. In a market economy, the most important measure of performance is efficiency. The most common performance characteristic is considered to be profit. Consideration of the essence of performance allows us to determine the main tasks of its analysis, which are to:

Determine the sufficiency of the achieved results for the market financial stability of the enterprise, reducing competitiveness;

To study the sources of occurrence and features of the impact of various factors on the performance;

Consider the main directions for further development of the analyzed object.

Business activity in the financial aspect is manifested in the speed of turnover of funds. Analysis of business activity consists of studying the levels and dynamics of various ratios - turnover indicators, and:

The size of the annual turnover depends on the speed of funds turnover;

The relative size of the conditional fixed costs: the faster the turnover, the less these costs per turnover;

The acceleration of turnover at one or another stage of the circulation of funds depends on how quickly the turnover occurs at other stages.

Quantitative assessment and analysis of business activity can be done in two directions:

Degree of plan implementation;

Resource efficiency level

To implement the first direction of analysis, it is necessary to take into account the comparative dynamics of the main indicators. So, the optimal ratio is:

Tpb > Tr > So > 100% (26) , where Tpb, Tr,

So - accordingly, the rate of change in profit, profitability, and advanced capital.

This dependency means that:

The economic potential of the enterprise increases;

Compared to the increase in economic potential, sales volume increases at a faster rate, i.e. enterprise resources are used more efficiently;

Profit is growing at a faster pace, which indicates a relative reduction in production and distribution costs.

The above ratio can be called the “golden rule of enterprise economics.” But deviations from this ideal dependence are possible, but they should not always be considered negative. Currently, this relationship is complicated by the distorting influence of inflation. / Sales revenue (line 010 f. No. 2). (23)

Accounts payable turnover (ACT) reflects the period from the moment the accounts payable arises until the moment they are repaid.

OKZ=[(line 621+622+623)*360]/ Cost of products sold (line 020 f. No. 2). (24)

Duration of inventory turnover (OZ) - characterizes the average storage and processing period:

OZ=[(line 210+220-215)*360]/ Cost of products sold (line 020 f. No. 2). (25)

Turnover period of finished products (FRP) - characterizes the average period of presence of finished products in warehouses

GGP=[(line 214)*360]/ Cost of products sold (line 020 form No. 2). (26)

Turnover of all current assets (TAC) characterizes the duration of the entire production and business cycle

OSR = [(line 290-230-244-252-246)*360]/ Sales revenue (line 010 f. No. 2) (27)

2.5 Analysis and models for assessing profitability

Return on capital indicators show how many rubles of profit are generated per 1 ruble. advanced (own) capital. When calculating, you can use the profit of the reporting period or net profit. Efficiency and economic expediency the functioning of the enterprise is measured by absolute and relative indicators, the calculation of which will be carried out based on net profit (“Profit and Loss Statement”) and data from the “Balance Sheet”:

Return on sales (sales) (RP) shows how much profit is per unit products sold.

RP = PP/VP, (28)

where VP is sales revenue (line 010 form No. 2)

The profitability of the production and economic activities of an organization as a whole is calculated as the ratio of profit before tax to the amount of total income (RPFD):

RPFD=PN/(VP+str.070+090+100+120 f.No.2) (29)

The overall profitability of the reporting period (OR) reflects the final efficiency of the organization’s activities, i.e. the amount of net profit per one ruble of income received (OR):

OR=CP/(VP+str.070+090+100+120f.No.2). (thirty)

Return on equity capital (ROE) allows you to determine the efficiency of using equity capital and compare it with the possible income from investing these funds in other securities.

RSK=PE/SK, (31)

where SK is equity capital.

3. General assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise using the example of Cameo LLC

3.1 general characteristics enterprises LLC "Kameya"

Limited Liability Company "Kameya" was formed in accordance with Articles of Association as amended on April 05, 2001, in order to carry out independent economic activities and make a profit. The company is a legal entity, owns separate property, accounted for on its separate balance sheet, can acquire and exercise property and personal non-property rights in its own name, bear responsibilities, and be a plaintiff and defendant in court. The founders of the company are citizens Vladimir Leonidovich Novoselov, Natalya Nasimovna Novoselov, Sergey Vladimirovich Novoselov, Nadezhda Valerievna Golubeva.

The authorized capital is formed from contributions of participants in the amount of 64,048 (sixty-four thousand forty-eight) rubles, and consists of nominal value shares of its participants.

Participants have the following shares:

Novoselov V.L. RUB 20,495.36 32%;

Novoselova N.N. RUB 19,214.40 thirty%;

Novoselov S.V. 20495.36 rub. 32%;

Golubeva N.V. 3842.88 rub. 6%.

Legal address of the company: 452680, Russia, Republic of Bashkortostan, Neftekamsk, st. Industrial, 7.

The supreme body of the company is the general meeting of the company's participants. The general meeting of company participants may be regular or extraordinary.

Management of the current activities of the company is carried out by the sole executive body of the company, accountable to general meeting members of the company, represented by General Director Novoselova V.L.

The main activity of Cameo LLC is the production and sale of garments for medical institutions. In addition to the main type of activity, the development and sale of new samples of sewing products (including the creation of design and technological documentation for the product and a prototype), wholesale and retail trade in industrial goods related to the main type of activity are provided.

LLC "Kameya" consists of the head enterprise and the Ufa branch "Kameya Plus", located in Ufa.

The structure of production and management is built on the principle of centralization and specialization of all structural divisions.

LLC "Kameya" is an enterprise with high production potential, the basis of which is a technical base equipped with modern production equipment, and highly qualified industrial and production personnel.

3.2 Assessment of liquidity and solvency

Financial condition is characterized by a system of indicators that reflect the availability, placement and use of financial resources. This is a characteristic of the competitiveness of an enterprise, the fulfillment of obligations to the state and other enterprises. The financial condition reflects all aspects of the enterprise's activities.

The main indicators on the basis of which the analysis of the company’s activities is carried out.

1. Overall coverage or current ratio. This indicator allows you to assess how the company copes with current obligations

This ratio must be greater than 2; if less, then the company cannot cope with current obligations.

2. Intermediate (term) liquidity ratio. It is determined. The value of this indicator should be above 0.5.

3. Absolute liquidity ratio.

The optimal value of this indicator ranges from 0.15 and above.

4. Ratio of equity and borrowed funds.

The value of this coefficient must be at least 0.7.

5. Sales profitability.

Table 5

Grouping by degree of decreasing liquidity and degree of urgency

Table 6

Main indicators of the financial condition of the enterprise for 2007

Similar documents

Theoretical aspects of assessing financial condition. Factors influencing changes in the financial condition of the enterprise. Legal regulation activities of the enterprise. Assessment of the solvency and liquidity of the enterprise. Forecasting sustainability.

graduate work, added 11/07/2008


The concept, meaning of analysis and information base for assessing the financial condition of an enterprise. Assessment of financial stability, profitability and business activity of an enterprise using the example of TAIF-NK PSC. Directions for improving the financial condition of the enterprise.

thesis, added 11/11/2010


thesis, added 10/06/2010


Goals and objectives of diagnosing the economic and financial condition of an enterprise. Analysis of balance sheet and capital structure, assessment of financial stability, liquidity, solvency and business activity. Assessment of financial results and profitability of the enterprise.

thesis, added 10/13/2011


Subject, goals, objectives and sources of analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise. Organizational and economic characteristics of the activities of Zhemchuzhina LLC. Assessment of the property position, analysis of liquidity and financial stability of the organization under study.

course work, added 11/22/2013


Analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise. General assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise. Analysis of property status. Analysis of financial stability. Liquidity analysis. Analysis of economic results. Performance analysis.

course work, added 10/15/2003


Characteristics of liquidity, solvency and financial stability as the main indicators of financial condition. Analysis of the property status of the enterprise Catering"Baraboo"; recommendations for improving its activities.

course work, added 08/22/2013


Concept, causes, signs and consequences of bankruptcy. Basic methods for determining the insolvency of an enterprise. Diagnostics of the financial condition of OJSC "Stroykom", assessment of its property status, liquidity and solvency.

course work, added 12/24/2013


The concept of financial stability of an enterprise. Methodology of financial analysis. General characteristics of the enterprise, assessment of its liquidity and creditworthiness. Estimating the probability of bankruptcy based on the Altman Z-score. Reserves for improving financial condition.

thesis, added 04/05/2012


a brief description of OJSC "Volzhskaya GTK" and assessment of technical and economic indicators of its activities. Analysis of financial stability, solvency, liquidity and business activity of the enterprise. Possible ways to improve his financial condition.

Ministry Agriculture RF

Buryat State Agricultural Academy

them. V.R. Filippova

Institute of Additional vocational education and innovation

Course work

By discipline:

Analysis of the financial and economic activities of the enterprise

Diagnostics and forecasting of the financial condition of the enterprise

Completed by: group student: 23-1-04

Starchukova O.V.

Ulan-Ude, 2013

Introduction

Chapter 1. Theoretical basis analysis and diagnostics of the financial and economic activities of the enterprise

1 Essence, concept of the financial condition of an enterprise

2 Methods of financial analysis

3 Methods for analyzing diagnostics and forecasting the financial condition of an enterprise

Chapter 2. Natural and economic conditions of the economy of JSC "Voskhod"

Chapter 3. Financial forecasting and diagnosis of bankruptcy

Conclusions and offers

References

Application

Introduction

Currently, Russia has moved to a new stage of the economy - market relations. Like nothing else, this economic reform affected the financial relations between the state and the enterprise. The macroeconomics has completely changed, which immediately affected the functioning of all types of farms. Enterprises whose main source of financing was government subsidies, very quickly found themselves on the verge of bankruptcy. The prospects for the development of ordinary enterprises now depended entirely on them.

With the advent of new economic relations, old concepts appeared in a new sense: competition, demand, supply, market conditions. The market is economic system and, like every system, a market economy has its own laws. Their reflection is economic analysis. The analysis tells us about the profitability of products, reserves for reducing costs, the importance of factors influencing the production process, makes us think about the structure of the production cycle, competition, solvency of the organization, allows us to “see” the business activity of the enterprise, market structure, economic development potential, and most importantly allows the management of the economic subject to make correct and timely decisions to improve the financial and economic activities of the organization.

Today, more and more importance is being given to forecasting various financial situations. One of the most striking branches of analysis is forecasting the financial condition of an organization.

The purpose of the course work is to use the example of Voskhod OJSC to diagnose shortcomings in the organization’s financial activities, as well as to develop solutions to eliminate them. A separate goal of the work is to consider various methods for diagnosing and forecasting the financial and economic activities of an enterprise and developing the most suitable one for modern stage market economy of the Russian Federation.

The goal sets the following tasks:

consideration of various methods for diagnosing and forecasting the financial activities of a farm;

identifying methods for diagnosing and forecasting the financial activities of an organization that is most suitable for the conditions of the Russian market.

Completing tasks involves determining the analysis methods to be used. The following methods are used in course work:

comparisons;

methods of horizontal and vertical analysis of balance assessment;

index method;

linear analytical alignment method;

1. Theoretical foundations of analysis and diagnostics of the financial and economic activities of an enterprise

1.1 Essence, concept of the financial condition of the enterprise

Results in any area of ​​business depend on the availability and efficient use of financial resources, which are equated to the “circulatory system” that ensures the life of the enterprise. Therefore, taking care of finances is the starting point and the end result of the activities of any business entity. In a market economy, these issues are of paramount importance.

Bringing to the forefront financial aspects activities of business entities, the increasing role of finance is a characteristic feature and trend throughout the world.

Professional management finance inevitably requires in-depth analysis, allowing a more accurate assessment of the uncertainty of the situation using modern quantitative research methods. In this regard, the priority and role of financial analysis are significantly increasing, the main content of which is a comprehensive systematic study of the financial condition of the enterprise and the factors of its formation in order to assess the degree of financial risks and predict the level of return on capital.

The introduction of a new Chart of Accounts, bringing the forms of accounting and reporting to greater compliance with the requirements of international standards necessitate the use of a new methodology for financial analysis that meets the conditions of a market economy. This technique is needed for an informed choice of a business partner, determining the degree of financial stability of the enterprise, assessing business activity and efficiency entrepreneurial activity. The main (and in some cases the only) source of information about the financial activities of a business partner is the financial statements, which have become public. The reporting of an enterprise in a market economy is based on a generalization of financial accounting data and is an information link connecting the enterprise with society and business partners - users of information about its activities.

The subjects of analysis are both directly and indirectly interested in the activities of the enterprise information users. The first group of users includes owners of enterprise funds, lenders (banks, etc.), suppliers, clients (buyers), tax authorities, enterprise personnel and management.

Each subject of analysis studies information based on their interests. Thus, owners need to determine the increase or decrease in the share of equity capital and evaluate the efficiency of the use of resources by the enterprise administration; to creditors and suppliers - the feasibility of extending the loan, credit conditions, loan repayment guarantees; potential owners and creditors - the profitability of investing their capital in the enterprise, etc.

The second group of users of financial information are the subjects of analysis, who, although not directly interested in the activities of the enterprise, must, by agreement, protect the interests of the first group of users. These are audit firms, consultants, stock exchanges, lawyers, the press, associations, trade unions.

In certain cases, to achieve the goals of financial analysis, it is not enough to use only financial statements. Certain user groups, such as management and auditors, have the opportunity to attract additional sources (production and financial accounting data). However, most often annual and quarterly reports are the only source of external financial analysis.

In the process of supply, production, sales and financial activities, a continuous process of capital circulation occurs, the structure of funds and sources of their formation, the availability and need for financial resources and, as a consequence, the financial condition of the enterprise, the external manifestation of which is solvency, change.

The financial condition can be stable, unstable (pre-crisis) and crisis. The ability of an enterprise to successfully operate and develop, to maintain a balance of its assets and liabilities in a changing internal and external environment, to constantly maintain its solvency and investment attractiveness within the acceptable level of risk indicates its stable financial condition, and vice versa.

If solvency is an external manifestation of the financial condition of an enterprise, then financial stability is its internal side, reflecting the balance of cash and commodity flows, income and expenses, means and sources of their formation.

To ensure financial stability, an enterprise must have a flexible capital structure and be able to organize its movement in such a way as to ensure a constant excess of income over expenses in order to maintain solvency and create conditions for normal functioning.

Almost all economic authors agree that the financial condition of an enterprise, its sustainability and stability depend on the results of its production, commercial and financial activities. If production and financial plans are successfully implemented, this has a positive effect on the financial position of the enterprise. And vice versa, as a result of underfulfillment of the plan for the production and sale of products, there is an increase in its cost, a decrease in revenue and the amount of profit and, as a consequence, a deterioration in the financial condition of the enterprise and its solvency. Consequently, a stable financial condition is the result of competent, skillful management of the entire complex of factors that determine the results of the financial and economic activities of an enterprise.

1.2 Financial analysis methods

The methodology for analyzing and diagnosing the financial and economic activities of an enterprise includes a set of specific methods (techniques) and ways of performing technical and economic analysis.

The methodology of financial analysis is most fully covered by T.B. Berdnikova. She identifies the following methods for analyzing the financial and economic activities of an enterprise:

Expert method(expert assessments) is used in cases where solving a given problem using parametric methods is impossible.

Expert analysis comes in many varieties. For example: the brainstorming method is based on the inclusion of experts in the active creative process. As a rule, an expert survey is conducted among employees, specialists, and managers. However, information obtained from sources external to the enterprise (competitors, subcontractors, suppliers and consumers, etc.) can be of great importance. This method is based on expert assessments and the use of computers.

Morphological methodrefers to promising methods that are widely used in practice. It allows you to systematize the resulting set of alternative solutions for all possible combinations of options and select from them first the acceptable ones, and then the most effective ones according to economic criteria. Search Sequence the best solution consists of the following: the exact formulation of the problem is specified; individual stages (phases) of work are determined; a list of possible methods and means for performing each stage is compiled; records are made of the stages and possible ways of their implementation in the form of a matrix model of the so-called “morphological box”; The elements of the “morphological box” are connected in a sequential chain and the resulting options for achieving the final goal are analyzed from the point of view of possibility and economic feasibility.

Rating methodis based on comparison with each other and arrangement in a certain order (ranking) of individual indicators for assessing the results of the financial and economic activities of the enterprise. It involves the compilation of ratings (ranked according to certain characteristics of the series) of indicators.

Factual methodbased on the study of all published, recorded facts characterizing the financial and economic condition of the enterprise.

Monitoring is a constant, systematic, detailed ongoing observation of the financial and economic condition of an enterprise.

The purpose of fundamental analysisand diagnostics of the financial and economic activities of an enterprise is to determine the internal value of its property complex as the overall result of technical and economic activities. Fundamental analysis is based on the following principle: any factor has a certain value, which has a specific impact on the final result of the financial and economic activities of the enterprise.

Technical analysisaims to perform a detailed, comprehensive analysis of the dynamics of individual parameters and indicators of the financial and economic activity of the enterprise. It is based on the construction of charts and graphs, the study of indicators and the factors that determine them.

Factor analysisis based on a multidimensional statistical study of a number of factors that have both a negative and positive impact on the results of the financial and economic activities of the enterprise. The purpose of this method is to identify the general, main factors that determine the main results of the financial and economic activities of the analyzed enterprise. There are constant and variable factors. Fixed factors include, for example, the required technology costs of raw materials, supplies, and electricity for the production of a certain type of product; variable factors may include wage costs and payment of auxiliary production costs.

Market analysisinvolves studying the current state of demand and supply of products (works, services) of the analyzed enterprise. It reflects the economic and production viability of a given enterprise, the efficiency of its financial and economic activities.

Mathematical analysisinvolves the use of mathematical techniques and methods for analyzing and diagnosing the financial and economic activities of an enterprise. The most commonly used calculations are arithmetic differences and percentages (simple and compound interest). Within the framework of mathematical analysis, the following are used:

differential analysis;

logarithmic;

integral analysis;

cluster analysis.

Of particular importance at present is the widely used discounting (an operation aimed at taking into account the inequality of costs and results relating to different periods of time).

Statistical analysis, which is the basis for diagnosing the financial and economic activities of an enterprise, includes:

analysis of average and relative values;

grouping;

graphical analysis;

index method;

correlation analysis;

regression analysis;

analysis of variance;

extrapolation analysis;

principal component method;

The main techniques (methods) for analyzing and diagnosing the financial and economic activities of an enterprise, most often used in practice, according to Berdnikova, are:

analysis production structure economic system; production processes, including analysis of the system of division and cooperation of labor of workers to carry out production processes and all economic activities;

analysis of the structure of the control system, management processes;

comprehensive analysis of production management using various technical means for collecting, processing, storing and transmitting information necessary for operational; making decisions, accounting and monitoring the progress of production.

Important elements of analyzing the activities of an enterprise are structuring, grouping and classification of individual elements, studying quantitative and qualitative characteristics, establishing criteria and assessing the efficiency of the enterprise.

1.3 Methods for analyzing diagnostics and forecasting the financial condition of an enterprise

The importance of analyzing the forecasting of the financial condition of an organization has always been given great importance. During Soviet Union forecasting was mainly macroeconomic in nature. The economic activities of enterprises were planned, on the basis of which a national scale forecast was made for a number of years to come. Forecasting the activities of an individual organization was carried out more as part of the implementation of the economic state plan-order, rather than to generate additional income. Even now, agricultural enterprises widely use the analysis of quarterly reports to calculate the provisional cost of production, expected revenue, and profit of the organization: Analysis of the financial condition of an agricultural enterprise is carried out monthly by studying the balance sheet, taking into account some of its features. As of October 1, enterprises after harvesting make calculations of the expected cost of production and financial results. This allows us to analyze the results of economic activity before the end of the year, eliminate some of the identified shortcomings, and reasonably draw up a production and financial plan for next year the actual cost of agricultural products in most industries is determined at the end of the year. The methodology for the current analysis of the state of financial and accounting discipline, the availability of own working capital, the implementation of the financial plan, accounts receivable and payable and the solvency of agricultural enterprises is basically the same as when analyzing the final balance sheet... Particular attention when analyzing quarterly balance sheets should be paid to the use of funds for intended purpose.

To date, many methods have been developed for forecasting and assessing the potential of an enterprise.

Among the many tools for analyzing the market position of an enterprise, one of the most visual is the development of a SWOT matrix. The essence of such an analysis is to assess the prospects for the financial and economic activities of the enterprise in two aspects. Speaking about the current situation of the enterprise, its advantages and disadvantages are determined, and a look at the future reveals opportunities for continuing further activities and threats to the successful implementation of plans. The results are summarized in a table, which provides visual material for planning further activities to overcome shortcomings and realize the market advantages of the enterprise, taking into account the identified opportunities and threats. The method was developed by American economists and is named after the first letters of the English words that form the main content of the analysis (Strength - advantage , Weakness - disadvantage, Opportunities - opportunity, Threat - threat).

The calculation of various indicators characterizing the diverse areas of the financial and economic activities of an organization most fully reflects the picture of the functioning of the organization at the reporting date. The dynamics of indicators allows us to make a subjective forecast of the farm’s activities for the next period.

An economist can form his opinion about an economic entity based on the results of the rating assessment. Diversity, heterogeneity and multidirectionality in changes in financial ratios often characterize a situation in which the value of some indicators improves and others deteriorate. Thus, considering each indicator separately, it is difficult to get an overall picture of the financial condition of the enterprise.

Particular difficulties arise when conducting comparative analysis with the results of other enterprises. A way out of this situation may be to use a methodology based on an integral rating assessment. The rating assessment should take into account all the most important indicators of both the production and financial activities of the enterprise. When selecting indicators, it is necessary to be guided by the rule that the growth of each of them should show an improvement in the performance of the enterprise; in this case, the number of indicators is not limited. For the rating assessment, several enterprises are taken, and their industry affiliation does not matter, since all indicators used for the assessment are relative. The significance of the rating increases due to the fact that the analyst uses data that is not a commercial secret, i.e. mainly by public reporting data.

Most forecasting techniques are based on past performance.

Large role in justification management decisions and profit maximization is played by marginal analysis, the methodology of which is based on studying the relationship between three groups of the most important economic indicators: costs, volume of production (sales) of products and profit - and predicting the value of each of these indicators at a given value of the others. This method of management calculations is also called break-even or income assistance analysis.

This methodology is based on the division of production and sales costs depending on changes in production volume into variable and constant and the use of the category of marginal income.

The marginal income of an enterprise is revenue minus variable costs. The contribution margin per unit of production is the difference between the price of that unit and its variable costs. It includes not only fixed costs, but also profits.

Marginal analysis allows you to study the dependence of profit on a small circle of the most important factors and on this basis manage the process of forming its value.

A very important indicator is the difference between the break-even (critical) sales volume and the planned (or actual) sales volume that can be achieved according to sales forecasts. This difference is called the financial stability margin, since it shows how much more goods the company can hope to sell in excess of the volume that ensures it achieves break-even. The smaller this stock, the more risky it is to undertake the production and sale of this product.

Break-even sales volume and the enterprise's safety zone are fundamental indicators when developing business plans, justifying management decisions, assessing the activities of enterprises, which every accountant, economist, and manager should be able to determine and analyze. The calculation of these indicators is based on the interaction “costs - sales volume - profit”. To determine their level, you can use graphical and analytical methods.

The analytical method of calculating the break-even sales volume and the enterprise safety zone is more convenient than the graphical one, since you do not need to draw a graph each time, which is quite labor-intensive. You can derive a number of formulas and use them to quickly calculate indicators.

Chapter 2. Natural and economic conditions of the economy of JSC "Voskhod"

OJSC "Voskhod" is a diversified agricultural enterprise with a highly developed crop and livestock sector. The total area of ​​the farm is 7497 hectares, of which the area of ​​agricultural land is 6758 hectares. The company employs 921 people.

Natural and climatic conditions and high-quality land resources make it possible to obtain good yields of grain and industrial crops, which in turn is the basis for the development of livestock farming.

In crop production, the main share is occupied by grain crops (winter wheat, barley, oats), followed by industrial crops (sugar beets, sunflower, soybeans). Forage crops play an important role, since the farm contains about 3,500 heads of cattle and up to 1,000 heads of pigs. The company partially processes grown products. For this purpose there is an oil mill, a mill, a sausage shop, and a bakery.

To sell processed products, the farm maintains a network retail outlets, both on the territory and outside it.

From 1920 to 1987, the farm existed as a specialized state enterprise for breeding purebred horses, “Voskhod Stud Farm” No. 33. For success in the development of pedigree horse breeding, the Voskhod stud farm was awarded the Order of the Red Banner of Labor in 1967. Economic reforms changed the conditions for running the farm. Since January 1988, the plant became self-sustaining, then it was corporatized. The entire land area of ​​the farm is distributed into equal shares between the shareholders of the OJSC, without the right to sell it to persons who are not shareholders of the farm; 51% of the shares belong to the state.

At the moment, horse breeding is still one of the core industries of the enterprise. However, recently the organization has increasingly focused on growing crops and organizing livestock farming.

The scale of the farm allows us to determine its resources, which are reflected in Table 1 (Appendix 1).

When characterizing the resources of the economy, we should pay attention to the fact that during the period we are studying, the number of employees and the land area of ​​the enterprise practically did not change, as did the organization’s costs for main production. However, it should be noted that the amount of costs for agricultural products increased by 46.4%, which amounted to 76,363 thousand rubles in 2012, and the annual salary of an enterprise employee increased by 70.2%. Increased by 11.6% average annual cost fixed assets, however, the size of production fixed assets of main activities decreased by 29.1%, i.e. by 18,041 thousand rubles, with a slight decrease in the energy capacity of the farm (by 4.1%), this indicates that the share of agricultural machinery in the fixed assets acquired by the organization recently is minimal.

A separate line should consider the increase in the amount of working capital of the economy per unit of fixed assets. This dynamic figure increased by 58.2% - undoubtedly a positive feature.

Analyzing the dynamics of the enterprise's animal population, it should be noted that there is an increase in the number of cattle (by 3.1%), pigs (by 0.8%) and a decrease in the number of horses (by 6.1%).

Table 2 (Note 2) will allow us to take a more specific look at the state of production of the enterprise. By studying the table indicators, we can say that the organization’s gross production has increased over the period under review. Thus, gross milk production increased by 2.4% (i.e. by 1146 c), live weight of cattle - by 3.1%, pigs - by 39.3% (i.e. by 246 c). The table shows that the main increase in production occurred in 2011, and in 2012 the production of milk and live weight of cattle decreased slightly. It should be assumed that the decrease in production in 2012 was caused by a spring flood, as a result of which one of the dairy farms was flooded.

Analyzing the gross harvest of the organization’s main crops, it should be noted that the dynamics of grain harvest increased by 39,728 c, i.e. by 22.4%, as well as sugar beets by 216,330 c, i.e. 2.4 times compared to the 2010 collection. However, it should also be noted that according to the results of the last three years, there has been a stable decrease in the gross harvest of corn for grain (by 94.1%, i.e. by 8239 c) and sunflower (by 28.2%, i.e. by 3178 c). However, given that these crops are not the main activity of the enterprise, it can be assumed that these reductions were planned by the organization, since the cultivation of these crops is carried out only to meet the internal needs of the enterprise. This assumption is confirmed by an analysis of the organization’s marketability levels. From Table 2 we see that the marketability levels of corn for grain, sugar beets and sunflowers are declining over time and in 2012 these figures were 37.1, 24.2 and 14.9%, i.e. the enterprise sells surplus products not used in its own production activities. The production of milk, and recently grain crops, is a priority for sales - in 2012, the farm sold 89.8 and 75.8% of these products, respectively. Moreover, the level of grain marketability during the period under review increased by 20.3 points. This is most likely due to improved efficiency in the use of the organization's land resources.

Speaking about the production activities of an enterprise, one cannot help but touch upon such concepts as yield and productivity. These categories are fundamental in obtaining the final quantity of products. The yield indicators of the main crops of the farm, as well as the productivity of the enterprise's livestock, are reflected in Table 3 (Note 3).

Looking at the data in the table, we can talk about the reasons that caused changes in the production indicators of the enterprise. Analyzing the data in Table 3, we see an increase in milk yield by 2.4% (by 104 kg) and an average daily increase in live weight of pigs by 38.2% (i.e. by 77.62 g). The average daily increase in live weight of cattle in 2012 compared to 2010 remained virtually unchanged. The table shows a noticeable increase in the yield of almost all crops. Thus, the organization’s grain yield increased by 20.8% and amounted to 67.3 c/ha in 2012, soybeans - by 41% (26.6 c/ha), sugar beets - by 85.9% (614.6 c/ha). ha). The only exception is corn, where the yield over the period we are considering decreased by 64.4% and amounted to 15.2 c/ha in 2012. Sunflower yields decreased slightly - by 1.9%.

Table 4 (Appendix 4) allows you to evaluate the results of the organization’s activities.

Looking at this table, it should be noted that the growth in gross output and cash revenue was significant in 2010 and insignificant in 2012. The gross output indicator for three years increased by 48.2% and amounted to 132,330 thousand rubles in 2012, including the indicators of gross output of crop production and livestock growing by 45.3 and 31.0%, respectively. By 33.2%, i.e. by 12,223 thousand rubles. Over the three-year period, the gross income of the enterprise also increased, and a significant increase also occurred in 2011 (by 11,524 thousand rubles). Accordingly, gross income from crop production (by 72.1%) and livestock production (by 40.5%) increased. The enterprise's cash revenue increased over three years by 32,494 thousand rubles, and it should be noted that the structural predominance in the total volume is revenue from crop products. As a result, we can say about an increase in profit from sales by 7641 thousand rubles. and profit of the reporting period of the enterprise by 4995 thousand rubles.

Table 5 (Appendix 5) allows you to analyze the efficiency of resource use. From this table it should be noted that almost all efficiency indicators increased during the period under review. Thus, the indicators of gross output, gross income and profit per average annual employee increased by 54.5, 33.5 and 20.1%, respectively, i.e. by 44.01, 13.36 and 5.48 thousand rubles. Indicators of the efficiency of land resource use behave similarly. Here, with an increase in gross output, gross income and profit of the enterprise, the size of agricultural land practically does not change. And therefore we see an increase in the considered indicators by 652.85, 187.63 and 78.63 thousand rubles, respectively. However, if the number of employees and the size of land did not change significantly during the period under review, the cost of fixed assets and the amount of expenses of the enterprise grew noticeably.

However, when studying the efficiency indicators for the use of fixed assets of the enterprise, it is necessary to note their increase by 34.9, 8.5 and 2.2 thousand rubles. respectively. Analyzing the return on costs, it should be noted that the amount of net profit of the enterprise per unit of cost over three years increased by 19.8%, i.e. by 5.1 thousand rubles, while gross income - by 33.2% (i.e. by 12.3 thousand rubles), gross output - by 48.1% (i.e. by 43.2 thousand rubles). Analyzing Table 5, you should pay attention to the decrease in cost recovery in 2012 compared to 2011. Undoubtedly, this is a negative feature, because the amount of profit per unit of cost for Last year decreased by 9.5%. In general, speaking about the efficiency of use of economic resources, it should be noted that during the period under review, an increase in indicators of the efficiency of use of labor, land and production resources of the enterprise. However, analyzing the cost recovery indicators, we see their decrease, which is a negative factor in the production activity of the enterprise.

Based on the data reviewed, it should be said that Voskhod OJSC is a medium-sized agricultural enterprise with a wide range of activities. Natural and climatic conditions and high-quality land resources make it possible to obtain good yields of grain and industrial crops, which in turn gives impetus to the development of livestock farming. Today, the financial condition of the economy can be assessed as unstable, because Recently, a slight decline in the production of the organization's main products has begun to be observed, while due to inflation and the lack of revaluation of fixed assets, information about the state of the economy is distorted. The decrease in cost recovery in 2012 is also an alarming factor in the organization’s activities.

At the moment, the management of the organization is reasonably faced with the question of the actual financial capabilities of the enterprise and the possibility of bankruptcy of the enterprise and its prevention.

capital solvency investment profitability

3. Forecasting financial condition and diagnosing bankruptcy

3.1 Financial forecasting

Forecasting the financial condition of an enterprise is based on a whole system of indicators that characterize the structure of sources of capital formation and its placement, the balance between assets and sources of their formation, the efficiency and intensity of the use of capital, the solvency and creditworthiness of the enterprise, its investment attractiveness, etc. For this purpose, the dynamics of each indicator are studied. In some cases, a projected income statement is prepared. We can trace the dynamics of profit and profitability of Voskhod OJSC by analyzing Table 6 (Appendix 6).

Analyzing Table 6, we see that the main part of the enterprise’s profit is profit from the main activities of the organization. After the introduction of the unified agricultural tax in 2012 (i.e., the practical abolition of all income tax benefits for agricultural enterprises), the share of net profit in the total balance sheet profit of the organization decreased by 8.15%. It should be noted that the growth rate of balance sheet profit remained virtually unchanged. This may indicate both the stability of growth of balance sheet profit, and may determine this growth by inflationary processes in the country. It is possible to determine the cause of growth by analyzing the profitability and efficiency of using enterprise resources. So we see that the level of product profitability in 2011 increased by 8.27%, then decreased in 2012 to 30.36%, thus increasing over the period under review by 5.02%.

A decrease in the levels of return on sales and total capital for the period under review indicates a decrease in the efficiency of use of the enterprise's property. Thus, return on sales for the period under review decreased by 7.2%, and return on total capital - by 5.2%.

As a negative point, we can consider the decrease in the enterprise’s profit in 2012 per employee, per ruble wages, per ruble of fixed assets, material costs, although over a three-year period the amount of profit per employee increased by 5.5 thousand rubles, per ruble of material costs - by 0.1 rubles.

The profit of an enterprise is the result of production activities and the process of selling the organization's products. Without analyzing the processes of production and sales of products, it is impossible to create a complete picture of the financial state of the economy, and, therefore, it is impossible to make a real forecast of the organization’s activities. The analysis of production and sales of products is reflected in Table 7 (Appendix 7).

Analyzing the indicators in Table 7, we can talk about a decrease in the growth rate of the enterprise’s gross output. During the analyzed period, the growth rate of gross output decreased by 111.8 points. Along with a decrease in the growth rate of the organization's sales volume by 28.5 points, this is an alarming factor in the production activity of the enterprise.

The level of capital productivity shows the amount of gross profit per ruble of the enterprise's fixed production assets. From the analysis of the indicators in Table 7, we see an increase in the efficiency of using the organization's fixed production assets. Over the three years under review, the level of capital productivity increased by 1.5 rubles.

A positive factor is the increase in average annual output per worker over the period under review. Over three years, the labor efficiency indicator increased by 46.9 thousand rubles. The reduction in material consumption can also be assessed positively. From the table we see a drop in the value of the indicator by 32.3 kopecks. in 2011 and its growth by 8.1 kopecks. in 2012, which resulted in a decrease of 24.2 kopecks over three years.

When forecasting the financial condition, a significant role is played by the relationship between the assets of the enterprise and the sources of their formation. The analysis of these indicators is given in Table 8 (Appendix 8).

An analysis of Table 8 indicates an increase in the organization’s own working capital for the period under review by 21,427 thousand rubles. - This is a positive aspect of the enterprise. However, a decrease in the share of equity capital in 2012 by 8.4% and, accordingly, an increase in the share of borrowed capital by the same amount indicates a decrease in the level of financial stability of the economy. Nevertheless, the positive aspects of the financial activity of the enterprise include an increase in the provision of the organization’s reserves with its own capital and an increase in the amount of accounts receivable per ruble of accounts payable. Thus, during the period under review, the value of the indicator of equity capital provision of the enterprise’s reserves increased by 26.2% and amounted to 119.5% in 2012, and the ratio of the enterprise’s receivables to accounts payable increased by 0.99 rubles. and amounted to 1.90 rubles in 2012.

An analysis of the enterprise's risks is of fundamental importance when forecasting the financial condition. The financial and production risks of the joint-stock company make it possible to analyze the data in Table 9 (Appendix 9).

The relationship between production volume, fixed and variable costs is expressed by the indicator of production (operating) leverage, the level of which determines the profit of the enterprise and its financial stability. When leveling up technical equipment there is an increase in the share fixed costs and level of production leverage. With the growth of the latter, the degree of risk of shortfall in revenue necessary to reimburse fixed costs increases.

The level of the financial leverage ratio shows how many times the growth rate of net profit exceeds the growth rate of gross profit. An increase in financial leverage is accompanied by an increase in the degree of financial risk associated with a possible lack of funds to pay interest on loans and borrowings. A slight change in gross profit and return on invested capital in conditions of high financial leverage can lead to a significant change in net profit, which is dangerous during a decline in production.

The effect of financial leverage shows how many units the amount of equity capital increases due to the attraction of borrowed funds into the turnover of the enterprise. A positive effect occurs in cases where the economic return on capital is higher than the loan interest rate. Under such conditions, it is beneficial to increase financial leverage, i.e. share of borrowed capital. In 2012, the enterprise we are considering attracted a significant amount of funds into circulation in the form of loans. Because the organization is agricultural, then in connection with the government program to support agricultural enterprises, the interest rate on the loan was 6%, which is significantly lower than the return on total capital (23.8%). This means that it is beneficial for a joint stock company to attract borrowed capital into circulation, thereby increasing the organization’s net profit. A negative phenomenon should be recognized as a decrease in the profitability of the total capital of the enterprise, which served to reduce the indicator of the effect of financial leverage for the period under review by 0.041 points.

Conclusions and offers

To summarize the above, it should be noted that the JSC Voskhod we are considering is currently a profitable enterprise. A slight decrease in the growth rate of balance sheet profit while simultaneously increasing its amount does not give cause for concern. In the sphere of production and sales of the organization's products, positive aspects include an increase in the profitability of the enterprise's products, the average annual output per employee of the organization, an increase in the level of capital productivity, and a decrease in material intensity indicators. At the same time, the decrease in the growth rate of gross output and sales volumes of the enterprise, as well as the decrease in the level of profitability of the organization’s total capital, makes one think.

The “advantages” of the financial activity of an enterprise include an increase in the amount of its own working capital, the percentage of recoupment of inventories with its own funds and an increase in accounts receivable per ruble of accounts payable.

An analysis of the organization’s risks showed that in the near future it would be beneficial for the joint-stock company to attract borrowed capital at an interest rate of no higher than 20%. The calculation of the production leverage ratio determined that at the moment the risk of the enterprise’s revenue not covering its fixed costs has decreased, which increases the financial stability of the organization. The dynamics of indicators of financial leverage and the effect of financial leverage determined the independence of the financial activities of the enterprise from the payment of interest on borrowed funds attracted into production. This undoubtedly indicates the stability of the organization’s financial activities in the future.

During the period under review, the enterprise's winter grain yield increased to 69.5 c/ha, sugar beet - to 614.6 c/ha, and soybeans - to 26.6 c/ha. The average daily increase in live weight of pigs increased to 281 g, milk yield per cow over the past year decreased by 433 kg, and amounted to 4475 kg in 2012, which is 103 kg more than in 2010.

Speaking about the results of the enterprise’s activities, it is worth noting the increase in the gross output of the economy, its gross income, revenue, and profit over the course of three years. So the amount of gross output for the period under consideration increased to 132,332 thousand rubles. (by 43,010 thousand rubles), gross income - up to 49,016 thousand rubles. (by 12,223 thousand rubles), cash revenue - up to 105,803 thousand rubles. (by 32,494 thousand rubles), net profit - up to 30,194 thousand rubles. (by 4995 thousand rubles)

Over the three years under review, the efficiency of using labor, land and production resources of the enterprise has increased. However, there was a decrease in cost recovery in 2012 compared to 2011, which is a negative factor in the production activities of the enterprise.

JSC "Voskhod" is an advanced agricultural enterprise with a developed accounting system. Accounting at the enterprise is decentralized: analytical accounting data is collected and partially processed by accounting departments at responsibility centers, and then in the form of production reports they are sent to the central accounting department, where synthetic accounting is maintained and reporting is prepared. The central accounting department is divided into the accounting department, archives, cash desk and operations department, where information is processed using a computer. Central accounting accounting is automated, which significantly speeds up the movement and processing of information.

The diagnosis of the bankruptcy of an open joint-stock company predetermined that the organization would not have a tendency toward insolvency in the near future.

increase the profitability of production through more complete use of the enterprise's production capacity, improving the quality and competitiveness of products, reducing its cost, rational use of material, labor and financial resources, reducing unproductive costs and losses.

increase the level of financial stability by restructuring the organization’s borrowed funds with an increase in long-term liabilities, as well as through the accumulation of retained earnings;

accelerate the turnover of enterprise funds due to better organization and technology of production, supply, sales and settlements, that is, reducing the time of production and circulation of products, works, services;

reduce the amount of overdue receivables and payables through timely payments and collections;

periodically conduct an analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise in order to timely identify deficiencies in the organization’s financial activities and promptly eliminate them;

carry out more intensive renewal of fixed assets through leasing, which does not require a full lump sum payment for the leased property and serves as one of the types of investment.

Bibliography

1.Federal Law of October 26, 2002 No. 127 Federal Law "On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)".

2.Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 498 of May 20, 2004 “On some measures to implement legislation on the insolvency (bankruptcy) of enterprises.”

.Order Federal Administration on insolvency (bankruptcy) cases dated August 12, 1994. No. 31-r (as amended on September 12, 1994)

.Anti-crisis management: Textbook. A manual for university students / ed. K.V. Baldina. - M.: Gardariki, 2010. - 271 p.

.Crisis management. Theory and practice for university students studying economics and management / ed. V.Ya. Zakharova. - 2nd ed., revised. and additional - M.: UNITY-DANA, 2009 - 304 p.

.Anti-crisis management / Edited by prof. Gryaznova A.G. - M.: Association of Authors and Publishers "TANDEM". EKMOS Publishing House, 2011. - 368 p.

.Bakanov M.I., Sheremet A.D. Theory of economic analysis: textbook, M.: Finance and Statistics, 2011. - 398 p.

.Bocharov, V.V. Modern financial management. - St. Petersburg: Peter, 2009. - 464 p.

.Vasilyeva, L.S. Financial analysis: textbook. for universities / L.S. Vasilyeva, M.V. Petrovskaya. - 4th ed., revised. and additional - M.: KnoRus, 2010. - 880 p.

.Voronina, V.M. Analysis of the net asset value of enterprise financial management. // Finance. - 2009. - No. 8. - P. 64-66.

.Vyvarets, A.D. Enterprise economy. - M.: UNITY - Dana. - 2009. - 543 p.

.Gradov A.P. Strategy and tactics of anti-crisis management of a company. - St. Petersburg. Specialist. literature - 2009. -510 p.

.Dontsova L.V. Analysis of financial statements: workshop / L.V. Dontsova, N.A. Nikiforova - 2nd ed., revised. - M.: Publishing house "Delo and Service", 2009. - 144 p.

.Zharkovskaya E.P., Brodsky B.E. Anti-crisis management: Textbook for universities / Zharkovskaya E.P., Brodsky B.E. - 4th ed., rev. - M.: Omega-L

.Zharkovskaya E.P., Brodsky B.E. Anti-crisis management: Textbook / E.P. Zharkovskaya, B.E. Brodsky. - M.: Omega-L, 2011. - 336 p.

.Kovalev V.V. The financial analysis. - M. Finance and Statistics, 2008

.Kovalev V.V. Analysis of financial condition and forecasting bankruptcy / Audit company / "Audit Azhur", - St. Petersburg, 2008. -164 p.

.Kovalev V.V. Course of financial calculations / V.V. Kovalev, V.A. Ulanov. - 3rd ed. add. - M.: Finance and Statistics, 2010. - 559 p.

.Kozlovskaya E.A., Kozlovsky V.A., Savrukov N.T. Financial support entrepreneurial activity. St. Petersburg "Polytechnic" -2009. - 220 s.

.Kondrakov N.P. Fundamentals of financial analysis, M. Glavbukh, 2008

.Korotkov E.M. Anti-crisis management: Textbook. 2nd ed., add. and processed / Ed. prof. EM. Korotkova. M.: INFRA-M, 2009 - 620 p.

.Koshkin V.I. and others. Anti-crisis management: 17-module program for managers "Managing the development of an organization", Module 11 - M.: INFRA-M, 2011. - 512 p.

..Kreinina M.N. Financial condition of the enterprise. Assessment methods, M.: ICC "Dis", 2011. - 538 p.

.Krioni A.E. The risk of bankruptcy of Russian small enterprises and methods of overcoming it // Management 2009, No. 1 - p. 94-96.

.Mazur I.I., Shapiro V.D. Restructuring of enterprises and companies, graduate School, 2011. - 338 p.

.Orekhov V.I., Baldin K.V., Orekhova T.R. Anti-crisis management: Training manual. - 2nd ed., rev. - M.: INFRA-M, 2009 - 540 p.

.Orekhov V.I., Baldin K.V., Gaponenko N.P.. Anti-crisis management: Textbook. - M.: IFRA - M, 2009. - 544 p.

.Fundamentals of anti-crisis management of enterprises: textbook. manual / ed. N.N. Kozhevnikova. - 4th ed., stereotype. - M.: Academy, 2010

.Pelikh A.S. Business plan. - M: Os-89, 2010. - 286 p.

.Pilipchuk V.V. Anti-crisis management: textbook. Benefit. Vladivostok: TIDOT DVGU, 2009. - 123 p.

.Polovtseva F.P. commercial activity: Textbook. - M.: INFRA

.Savitskaya G.V. Analysis of economic activities. - Eco-perspective

.Samorodsky V.A., Khlusova I.A. Crisis management. Textbooks and teaching aids for higher education students educational institutions. - M.: COLOSS, 2008. - 208 p.

.Semeney A. Problems of forecasting bankruptcy at domestic enterprises // People of Affairs XXI. - 2003. - No. 36 (March) - 16 p.

.Skamay L.G. Trubochkina M.I. Economic analysis of enterprise activity, M.: INFRA-M, 2009. - 332 p.

.Sosyenko L.S. Comprehensive economic analysis of economic activity. Textbook - M.; 2010. - 282 p.

.Theory and practice of crisis management: Textbook for universities / G.Z. Bazarov, S.G. Belyaev, L.P. Belykh and others; Ed. S.G. Belyaev and V.I. Koshkina. - M.: Law and Law, UNITY, 2011. - 469 p.

.Financial management in a crisis: the experience of small and medium-sized businesses / Shuklov, Lev Viktorovich. - M.: LIBROKOM, 2010. - 234 p.

.Sheremet A.D. Negashev E.V. Methods of financial analysis, M.: INFRA - M, 2009. - 428 p.

.Shermet A.D., Saifulin R.S. Methodology for financial analysis of an enterprise. - M.: INFRA-M, 2008. - 378 p.

Annex 1

Table 1

Resources of JSC "Voskhod"

Indicators2010.2011.2012.2012. by 2010 Average annual number of workers, people 92394592199,8 of which employed in agriculture 775793794102,5 Total land area, hectares 76277624749798,3 including area of ​​agricultural land 68436758675898,8 of which arable land 65426531654210 0.0Average annual cost of fixed production assets, thousand rubles 839108801893636111 ,6 of which production fixed assets of main activity 64033676364599271.8 Costs of main production, thousand rubles 994128674899460100.0 including for agricultural products 521606834076363146.4 Annual wages per 1 employee, rub. 133402018022698170.1 There are 100 rubles worth of working capital. main, rub. 52,267,582,6158,2 Livestock: - cattle 339034063494103,1 - pigs 843891850100,8 - horses 33331331394,0 Availability of energy capacities, l. p.35674350393421495.9

Appendix 2

table 2

Results of production activities

Indicators 2010 2011 2012 2012 to 2010 Gross production, centners - milk 480865398949232102.4 - live weight of cattle 354042253649103.1 - pigs 626790872139.3 Gross harvest of main crops, centners - grains and legumes1 77267165293216995122.4 - corn for grain 875627205175.9 - sugar beet 147488156730363818 2.4 times - sunflower 17543139831436581.9 Marketability level,% - milk 91,589,289.8X - live weight of cattle 102,777,977.4X - pigs 121,931 ,036.4Х - grains and legumes 55,561,375.8Х - corn for grain-142,137.1X - sugar beet 26,025,524.2X - sunflower 24,515,014.9X

Appendix 3

Table 3

Livestock productivity and yield of major crops

Indicators 2010 2011 2012 2012 to 2010 Milk yield per 1 cow, kg 437149084475102.4 Average daily increase in live weight, g - cattle 286340 286100.0 - pigs 203243281138.2 Yield, c/ha Grain and legumes55,751,567, 3120.8 Winter grains 55.651.769.5125.0 Corn for grain 42.714.915.235.6 Soya 18.89.326.6141.5 Sugar beets 330.7327.9614.6185.8 Sunflower 32.229.231.698.1

Appendix 4

Table 4

Financial results of activities, thousand rubles.

Indicators 2010 2011 2012 2012 to 2010 Gross production at current prices 89322115611132332148.2 including - crop production 457765148766527145.3 - livestock production 339604743144497131.0 Gross income 3 67934831749016133.2 including - crop production 158871905227349172.1 - livestock production 140202099919695140.5 Monetary revenue 7330992095105803144.3 including - crop production 387434134357714149.0 - livestock production 263093973035699135.7 Profit from sales of products 252312886332872130.3 Profit of the reporting period 25199291553019 4119.8

Appendix 5

Table 5

Resource efficiency

Indicators2010.2011.2012.2012. by 2010. Gross output thousand rubles received: - per 1 average annual employee. 96.8122.3140.8145.5 - per 100 hectares of agricultural land 1305.31710.71958.2150.0 - per 100 rubles. fixed assets, rub. 106.4131.4141.3132.8 - per 100 rub. costs, rub. 89.9133.3133.1148.1 Gross income received thousand rubles: - per 1 average annual employee 39.951.153.2133.5 - per 100 hectares of agricultural land 537.7715.0725.3134.9 - per 100 rubles. fixed assets, rub. 43,854,952,3119.4 - per 100 rubles. costs, rub. 37,055,749,3133.2 Profit received, thousand rubles: - per 1 average annual employee 27,330,932,8120.1 - per 100 hectares of agricultural land 368,2431,4446,8121.3 - per 100 rubles. fixed assets, rub. 30,033,132,2107.4 - per 100 rubles. costs, rub. 25,333,630,4119.8

Appendix 6

Table 6

Profit and profitability of the enterprise

Indicators 2010 2011 2012 Deviation (+,-) 2012 to 2010 Amount of balance sheet profit, thousand rubles 2523128863328727641 Growth rate of balance sheet profit, % 114.2114.4113.9-0.3 Share of profit from core activities, % 98,599,199,61,1 Share of net profit in the total balance sheet profit, % 99,910091,9-8,0 Costs per ruble of gross output, kopecks 1,10,80,8-0,3 Profitability level, % of production 25,333,630 ,45.1 sales (turnover) 154.7148.3147.5-7.2 total capital 29.027,723.8-5.2 Profit: per employee, thousand rubles 27.330.932.85.5 per ruble of wages, rub. 2.61 ,81.4-1.2 per ruble of material costs, rub. 0.40,70.50.1 per ruble of fixed assets, rub. 0.60,70.60

Appendix 7

Table 7

Production and sales of products

Indicators 2010 2011 2012 Deviation (+,-) 2012 to 2010 Gross output growth rate, % 2.7 times 129.41 14.5-111.8 Sales growth rate, % 143.4125 6114.9-28.5 Level of capital productivity, rub. 1.41.72.91.5 Average annual output per employee, thousand rubles 96.7122.3143.646.9 Total material intensity, kopecks 68.936.644.724.2

Appendix 8

Table 8

Correlation of assets and sources of their formation

Indicators 2010 2011 2012 Deviation (+,-) 2012 by 2010 Availability of own working capital (net current assets), thousand rubles 41328560736275521427 Share in the formation of current assets, %: equity capital 80,583,072.1-8.4 borrowed capital 19,517,027.98.4 Percentage of inventory coverage with equity capital, % 93,399, 9119.526.2 Ratio of accounts receivable and accounts payable 0.911.421.900.99

Appendix 8

Table 9

Enterprise risk assessment

Indicators 2010 2011 2012 Deviation (+,-) 2012 to 2010 Production leverage ratio 3.9141.1480.972-2.942 Financial leverage ratio 0.8510.9970.264-0.587 Financial leverage effect 2.4662, 4492.425-0.041 Production and financial leverage ratio 3.3311.1450.257-3.074

Tutoring

Need help studying a topic?

Our specialists will advise or provide tutoring services on topics that interest you.
Submit your application indicating the topic right now to find out about the possibility of obtaining a consultation.

Economic essence, goals and assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise. Analysis of profit from sales of commercial products, balance sheet profit. Methodology for analyzing and forecasting the financial condition of an organization based on financial reporting data.

Send your good work in the knowledge base is simple. Use the form below

Students, graduate students, young scientists who use the knowledge base in their studies and work will be very grateful to you.

Posted on http://www.allbest.ru/

Introduction

Chapter 1. Theoretical foundations of analysis and forecasting of the financial condition of an enterprise

1.1 Economic essence, goals and assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise

1.2 Methodology for analyzing and forecasting the financial condition of an organization based on financial statements

Chapter 2. Analysis of the financial condition of Gezler LLC

2.1 Brief description of the Limited Liability Company "Gezler"

2.2 Analysis of the organization's profit

2.3 Analysis of profit from sales of commercial products

2.4 Analysis of balance sheet profit

Chapter 3. Forecasting and analysis of reserves for improving the financial position of Gezler LLC

Conclusion

Bibliography

Vveating

In market relations, analysis of the financial condition of an enterprise is especially necessary and should be aimed at further economic development of the enterprise, its strengthening, and increasing the efficiency of using its economic potential.

With the advent of new economic relations, old concepts appeared in a new sense: competition, demand, supply, market conditions. The market is an economic system and, like every system, a market economy has its own laws. Their reflection is economic analysis. The analysis tells us about the profitability of products, reserves for reducing costs, the importance of factors influencing the production process, makes us think about the structure of the production cycle, competition, solvency of the organization, allows us to “see” the business activity of the enterprise, market structure, economic development potential, and most importantly allows the management of the economic subject to make correct and timely decisions to improve the financial and economic activities of the organization.

The independence of enterprises and their economic and legal responsibility are increasing. The values ​​of financial stability and business entities are increasing sharply. All this significantly increases the role of analysis of their financial condition, availability, placement and use of funds. In these times of unstable economy, when there is a recession industrial production and investments in production are significantly reduced, for effective work it is necessary to be able to analyze your past activities (in order not to repeat mistakes and use positive aspects) and plan future activities.

To assess the financial stability of an enterprise, an analysis of its financial condition is necessary. Financial condition is a set of indicators reflecting the availability, placement and use of financial resources, especially the analysis of profit and profitability.

Activity manufacturing enterprise carried out at the expense of profits. Therefore, in the system of economic analysis, the study of the patterns of formation of the main source of income of an enterprise - profit - is of great importance.

If compared with other cost indicators, profit is most suitable for assessing the production and economic activities of an enterprise, since it expresses the result of this activity in monetary form. When assessing profit, the growth in the volume of marketable products and products sold, the efficiency of the enterprise's use of fixed production assets and other material, financial and labor resources are also assessed.

The main goal of this work is to investigate the financial condition of the enterprise GEZLER LLC, identify the main problems of financial activity and give recommendations on financial management.

Based on your goals, you can formulate tasks:

Characteristics of the enterprise’s property: fixed and working capital and their turnover, identification of problems;

Characteristics of the enterprise’s sources of funds: own and borrowed;

Analysis of profit from sales of commercial products;

Analysis of balance sheet profit;

Financial stability assessment;

Development of measures to improve financial and economic activities.

Methodological basis for analyzing the financial condition of an enterprise.

To solve the above problems, the annual financial statements of GEZLER LLC for 2010 - 2014 were used, namely:

Balance sheet (Form No. 1 according to OKUD),

Appendix to the balance sheet (Form No. 5 according to OKUD)

Cash flow statement (Form No. 4 according to OKUD)

Profit and loss statement (Form No. 2 according to OKUD)

The object of the study is the limited liability company "GEZLER". The subject of analysis is the financial processes of the enterprise and the final production and economic results of its activities.

Chapter 1. Theoretical foundations of analysis and forecasting of the financial condition of an enterprise

1.1 Economic essence, goals and assessment of financialfinancial status of the enterprise

The assessment of the financial condition of an enterprise is determined primarily by the transition of our economy to market relations.

Financial condition refers to the ability of an enterprise to finance its activities. It is characterized by: the provision of financial resources necessary for the normal functioning of the enterprise, the feasibility of their placement and efficiency of use, financial relationships with other legal entities and individuals, solvency and financial stability.

Assessment of financial condition is a way to reveal the financial well-being and dynamics of development of an economic entity.

An assessment of the financial condition of an enterprise is carried out in the following cases:

1. Reorganization, restructuring, liquidation of the company.

2. Concluding a transaction of purchase and sale or lease of a business (both individual parts and all property).

3. Revaluation of financial assets.

4. Obtaining various loans and investments.

5. Insurance of company property.

6. Bankruptcy procedure with forced sale of an enterprise or part of it.

The main goals of the financial condition of the enterprise are:

1. Assessment of the dynamics of movement and the state of the composition and structure of assets.

2. Assessment of the dynamics of movement, composition, condition and structure of sources of equity and borrowed capital.

3. Analysis of calculated and absolute indicators of the company’s financial stability, assessment of changes in level and identification of changing trends.

4. Analysis of the company’s solvency, the liquidity of its balance sheet assets.

The result of assessing the financial condition of the enterprise is:

1. Established indicators financial situation.

2. Identified changes in the financial condition of the company in space and time.

3. Identified main factors that cause changes in financial condition.

4. Conclusions and forecast on the main trends in changes in the financial condition of the company.

In the domestic literature, the following main groups of tasks of internal analysis of the financial condition of an enterprise are distinguished:

1. Identification of financial position.

2. Identification of changes in financial condition in space and time.

3. Identification of the main factors that caused changes in financial condition.

4. Timely identification and elimination of deficiencies in financial activities and the search for reserves for improving the financial condition of the enterprise and its solvency.

5. Forecasting possible financial results, economic profitability based on the actual conditions of economic activity and the availability of own and borrowed resources, developing models of financial condition for various options for using resources.

6. Development of specific activities aimed at more efficient use financial resources and strengthening the financial condition of the enterprise. The content of an external assessment of financial condition is largely determined by the sphere of economic interests of users.

Assessment of financial condition can be carried out using various types models that allow structuring and identifying relationships between key indicators. There are three main types of models: descriptive, predicative and normative.

Predictive models are models of a predictive, predictive nature. They are used to forecast a company's income and its future financial condition. The most common of them are: calculating the point of critical sales volume, constructing predictive financial reports, dynamic analysis models (strictly determined factor models and regression models), situation analysis models.

Regulatory models allow you to compare the actual results of enterprises with the expected ones calculated according to the budget. These models are used primarily in internal financial analysis. Their essence boils down to the establishment of standards for each item of expenditure for technological processes, types of products, responsibility centers and to the analysis of deviations of actual data from these standards. The analysis is largely based on the use of strictly deterministic factor models.

Analysis of the financial stability of an enterprise includes two areas:

analysis of the availability and adequacy of real equity capital;

analysis of the provision of reserves with sources of their formation.

To assess financial stability joint stock companies The main role is played by the net assets indicator, defined as the difference between the amount of assets accepted for calculation and the amount of liabilities accepted for calculation. Net assets coincide for joint stock companies with the indicator of real equity capital. During the analysis of the difference between real equity capital and authorized capital the adequacy of real equity capital is established.

When analyzing the provision of reserves with sources of their formation, certain indicators are used:

availability of own working capital;

availability of long-term sources of reserve formation;

the total value of the main sources of reserve formation.

Three indicators of the availability of sources for the formation of reserves correspond to three indicators of the provision of reserves with sources of their formation, on the basis of which four types of financial situations are distinguished, a schematic representation of which is presented in Figure 1.

Along with absolute indicators, financial stability is also characterized by the financial ratios presented in Table 1.

Figure 1 - Algorithm for identifying the type of financial situation

Profitability indicators characterize the profitability of the organization and are calculated as the ratio of profit indicators to the average assets of the enterprise for the reporting period. Profit indicators can include gross profit, sales profit, profit before tax, profit from ordinary activities, and net profit.

table 2

Relative coefficients of financial stability of an enterprise

As an indicator of assets, the values ​​of all assets of the enterprise, non-current assets, current assets, individual components of non-current and current assets can be used. In the analysis of the profitability of an enterprise, carried out in the second chapter, the net profit of the enterprise is considered as an indicator of profit, and the average value of all assets of the enterprise, non-current and current assets, and net assets for the reporting period is considered as an indicator of assets.

The main goal of an organization's financial activities is to decide how, where and when to use funds to ensure efficient production and maximum profits.

In a market economy, when the rights of an organization in the field of financial and economic activities are significantly expanded, the role of a qualitative analysis of the financial condition of the organization, assessment of its solvency, liquidity, creditworthiness and financial stability increases noticeably. It is important to objectively assess the financial condition of the organization, since no manager should miss the potential opportunities to increase the organization’s profits, which can only be identified on the basis of an analysis of the financial condition. A competent analysis of the financial condition of an organization, its solvency, liquidity, creditworthiness and financial stability is also necessary because the profitability of any organization and the size of its profit largely depend on its solvency.

1.2 Methodology for analyzing and forecasting the financial condition of an organization based on financial statements

There is a special technique for analyzing the financial condition of an enterprise. Its content is to forecast and evaluate the organization on a given problem in accordance with accounting and reporting data.

The financial condition of the enterprise in this case should be considered from the following positions:

It is necessary to evaluate the organization from the point of view of its economic content;

There should be regular forecasting of the company's condition;

Analysis and assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise should take place in two directions:

Internal analysis will necessarily be carried out by employees of this organization in accordance with the approved plan;

An audit (external analysis) should be determined by the interests of other users and conducted according to official accounting data.

The financial condition of an enterprise will be successful if it is able to exist, develop, and also maintain balance in its assets and liabilities in a situation of changing external and internal reality.

The fact is that even with high income, an organization may experience difficulties if it uses its financial resources irrationally. For example, if a decision was made to invest them in excess reserves or to allow a large debt on loans.

Among the positive factors of economic stability, one can highlight the presence of sources and reserves for the formation of cash reserves, and among the negative ones, their size.

In accordance with various economic characteristics, all reporting information is grouped into separate consolidated items, which in international practice are called elements of financial statements. The main elements of financial statements are assets, liabilities, equity, income, expenses, profit and loss. The first three elements characterize the enterprise's funds and the sources of these funds as of a certain date; the remaining elements reflect transactions and economic events that affected the financial position of the enterprise during the reporting period and caused changes in the first three elements. All elements of financial statements are reflected in reporting forms, the main ones being the Balance Sheet and the Profit and Loss Statement.

Among the main methods of financial analysis are the following:

1) preliminary reading of accounting (financial) statements;

2) horizontal analysis;

3) vertical analysis;

4) trend analysis;

5) method of financial ratios;

6) factor analysis;

7) comparative analysis;

8) calculation of cash flow;

9) specific analysis.

An initial familiarization with an enterprise’s reporting allows one to study absolute values, draw conclusions about the main sources of raising funds, the directions of their investment, the main sources of profit received, the accounting methods used and changes in them, the organizational structure of the enterprise, and so on. The information obtained during the preliminary reading gives a general idea of ​​the financial condition of the enterprise, but it is not enough for making management decisions.

Horizontal analysis - comparison of each reporting item with the previous period. This method allows you to identify trends in changes in reporting items or their groups and, based on this, calculate the basic growth rates. Horizontal and vertical analysis complement each other.

Vertical (time) analysis - determining the structure of the final financial indicators with identifying the impact of each reporting item on the result as a whole, that is, calculating the share of individual reporting items in the overall final indicator and assessing its impact.

Vertical analysis allows you to:

study the results of economic activity on the basis of relative indicators, smoothing out the influence of subjective external factors, which occurs when working with absolute indicators and makes it difficult to compare them over time;

conduct inter-farm comparisons of various organizations that differ in the amount of resources used and other volume indicators.

Trend analysis is a type of horizontal analysis; it is used in cases where comparisons of indicators are made over more than three years. However, long-term comparisons are usually made using indices. Each reporting item is compared with a number of previous periods to determine the trend. Trend is the main tendency of the indicator. Calculating a series of index numbers requires choosing a base year for all indicators.

Analysis of relative indicators (coefficients) - calculation of relationships between reporting data, determination of the relationship between indicators. These coefficients are of great interest because, firstly, they allow us to determine the range of information that is important for users of financial statements from the point of view of decision-making; secondly, they provide an opportunity to more deeply assess the position of a given reporting unit in the economic system and trends in its change. A great advantage of the ratios is also that they smooth out the negative impact of inflationary processes, which can significantly distort the absolute indicators of financial statements and thereby complicate their comparison over time. This method is the most convenient due to its simplicity and efficiency. Its essence lies in comparing the coefficients calculated from reporting data with generally accepted standard coefficients, industry average norms or corresponding coefficients, and with numerical ones based on the data of the enterprise’s activities for previous years.

Comparative analysis is both an intra-company comparison of individual indicators of a company, subsidiaries, divisions, workshops, and an inter-company comparison of the indicators of a given company with the indicators of competitors, with industry averages and average general economic data.

The method of financial ratios is based on the existence of certain relationships between individual reporting items. The coefficients make it possible to determine the range of information that is important for users of information about the financial condition of the enterprise from the point of view of decision-making. The big advantage of the coefficients is that they smooth out the negative impact of inflation, which significantly distorts the absolute indicators of financial statements, thereby making it difficult to compare them over time.

Analysis of the financial condition of an enterprise is based on a system of financial ratios. The indicators most often used in analyzing the financial condition of an enterprise can be divided into four groups.

Factor analysis is used to study and measure the impact of factors on the value of the performance indicator. Factor analysis can be direct, when an effective indicator is divided into its component parts, and backward, when individual elements are combined into a common effective indicator.

An important tool of financial analysis is the calculation of cash flow. Presented in the form of an annual financial forecast, it shows how you are expected to receive cash each month and make monthly payments to pay off your debt. This calculation allows us to estimate the peak of the enterprise's need for additional funds and its ability to earn enough cash to pay off short-term debt during the operating cycle.

It may be noted that different authors the methodology for analyzing the financial condition of an enterprise, based on the data of its financial statements, includes great amount various financial indicators. There is no universal analysis method.

Chapter 2.Financial analysisnew condition at Gez LLCler"

2.1 Brief description of the Limited Liability Company "Gezler"

The company was registered on November 22, 1999 by the registrar of the Inspectorate of the Ministry of Taxes and Taxes of Russia for the Pervomaisky district of Rostov-on-Don. The director of the organization is Nelya Petrovna Ivanchenko. The company "GEZLER" LLC is located at 344065, ROSTOV-ON-DON, ST. ORSKAYA, 31, MERCURY MARKET, STORE N 89, the main activity is “Retail trade in men's, women's and children's clothing.”

The company is also registered in such categories as: “Retail trade of hats”, “Retail trade of clothing accessories: gloves, ties, scarves, belts, suspenders, etc.” The main industry of the company is Retail Trade. The organization was assigned TIN 6166040471, OGRN 1036166003323. The company LIMITED LIABILITY COMPANY "GEZLER" was liquidated on December 31, 2012.

Organizational and legal form (OPF) - limited liability companies. Type of property - property of foreign citizens and stateless persons.

LIMITED LIABILITY COMPANY "GEZLER", Rostov-on-Don, Rostov region.

Legal address: 344065, ROSTOV-ON-DON, st. ORSKAYA, 31, MERCURY MARKET, STORE No. 89.

Founders of LLC "GEZLER"

The founders of the company according to Statregister data as of September 2006:

§ * CITIZENS;

The founders of the company according to Statregister data as of August 2012:

§ * CITIZENS OF TURKEY;

The founders of the company according to Statregister data as of October 2012:

§ * Citizens of Turkey;

The founders of the company according to the Unified State Register of Legal Entities as of February 2012:

§ * Gezler Forhat - (participation share - 100%);

Mini-extract from the Unified State Register of Legal Entities:

§ Initial registration

January 8, 2003

§ Registrar

Inspectorate of the Ministry of Taxes and Taxes of Russia for the PERVOMAISKY district of ROSTOV-ON-DON

§ Director

Ivanchenko Nelya Petrovna

§ Authorized capital

8,400 rub.

§ Organizational and legal form

Limited Liability Companies

§ Type of ownership

Property of foreign citizens and stateless persons

§ OGRN

1036166003323

§ INN

6166040471

§ Checkpoint

616601001

§ OKPO

51599323

§ OKATO

60401378000

Main activity:

* Retail trade of men's, women's and children's clothing;

Additional activities of the company:

* Retail trade of hats;

* Retail trade in clothing accessories (gloves, ties, scarves, belts, suspenders, etc.);

All-Russian classifier of products by type of economic activity:

* Services for retail trade in women's fur clothing;

* Retail trade services for women's underwear;

* Retail trade services for men's sportswear;

* Services for retail trade in children's hats;

* Services for retail trade in women's hosiery;

* Clothing retail services;

* Retail trade services for men's leather clothing;

* Retail trade services for men's hosiery;

The company GEZLER LLC carries out the following types of activities (in accordance with OKVED codes specified during registration):

§ Retail trade of clothing

§ Retail trade in men's, women's and children's clothing (Main activity)

· Retail trade, except trade in motor vehicles and motorcycles; repair of household products and personal items

o Other retail trade in specialized stores

§ Retail trade of clothing

§ Retail sale of hats (Additional activity)

· Retail trade, except trade in motor vehicles and motorcycles; repair of household products and personal items

o Other retail trade in specialized stores

§ Retail trade of clothing

§ Retail trade in clothing accessories: gloves, ties, scarves, belts, suspenders, etc. (Additional activity)

The company operates in the following industries (in accordance with the OKONH classifier):

· Trade and catering

o Domestic trade

§ Retail trade

Retail turnover includes:

· revenue from the sale of goods in retail trading network for cash and on credit;

· release of products from catering establishments own production and purchased goods;

· revenue from the sale of clothing, shoes, hats, and linen from sewing workshops based on individual orders from consumers;

· revenue from the sale of printed materials (newspapers, magazines, books, posters) in the retail trade network and by subscription to the public, organizations, and enterprises;

· revenue from workshops for dry cleaning and dyeing of clothes;

· revenue from repairs of clothing, shoes, hats, watches, television, video, radio equipment, furniture and other items performed by consumer service enterprises;

revenue from repairs and Maintenance cars, motorcycles, including the cost of spare parts sold by specialized enterprises;

· revenue from the sale by gas stations of fuels and lubricants, spare parts, and other care products for cars and motorcycles;

· revenue from the sale of agricultural products, livestock and poultry directly by agricultural enterprises, subsidiary plots;

· other revenue (for cutting fabrics for sale, delivery of goods to your home, from sales of relevant goods by trading organizations to rental shops, etc.).

The main tasks of “analysis of retail turnover can be reduced to the following:

· checking the implementation of plans (forecasts) for trade turnover, meeting consumer demand for individual goods, mastering long-term standards for indicators trading activities; identifying economic and social development enterprises retail; establishing the validity, tension, optimality of plans;

· study, quantitative measurement and generalization of the influence of factors on the implementation of the plan and the dynamics of retail turnover; comprehensive assessment of the trading activities of the enterprise;

· identifying ways, opportunities and reserves for increasing trade turnover, improving the quality of customer service, efficient use of the material and technical base of trade, commodity and labor resources;

· development of optimal, strategic and tactical management decisions for the development of retail turnover of a trading enterprise.

General Director - manages all activities of the enterprise. Organizes the work and effective interaction of production units, workshops and other structural divisions of the enterprise, directs their activities to achieve high rates of development and improve production; increasing labor productivity, production efficiency and product quality based on widespread implementation new technology, scientific organization of labor, production and management.

Table 3 shows the main performance indicators of GEZLER LLC for 2010-2014.

Table 3 - Main performance indicators of GEZLER LLC for 2010-2014

According to the table. 3 compared to 2010, in 2014 property decreased by 758 thousand rubles, and compared to 2011 by 2739 thousand rubles. The cost of fixed assets in 20 was 24 thousand rubles. which is 12 thousand rubles. less than in 2006, and by 17 thousand rubles. less than in 2012

The value of current assets also decreased in the analyzed period. If in 2010 their cost was 9,110 thousand rubles, then in 2014 it decreased to 8,364 thousand rubles. Compared to 2010, in 2014 the value of current assets decreased by 746 thousand rubles, and compared to 2012 by 2722 thousand rubles.

The company's equity capital tends to grow and amounted to 3514 thousand rubles in 2014, which is 1773 thousand rubles. more than in 2012. Short-term liabilities, on the contrary, decreased, which is assessed on the positive side.

Revenue from sales of products (works, services) in 2014 increased compared to 2010 by 20,706 thousand rubles, compared to 2012 by 4,907 thousand rubles. The cost of products (works, services) also tends to increase. In 2014, compared to 2010, the cost of production increased by 16,783 thousand rubles, and compared to 2012, by 3,524 thousand rubles.

In 2014, the company received a gross profit of 8,427 thousand rubles. The company's net profit tends to increase. Thus, in 2014, net profit amounted to 3173 thousand rubles, which is 1449 thousand rubles. more than in 2010 and by 666 thousand rubles. more than in 2012. The increase in net profit is associated with an increase in product sales volumes.

Table 4 - Analysis of the composition and movement of settlements with debtors at GEZLER LLC for 2014

According to Table 4, it can be seen that during 2014, receivables in the amount of 1,455 thousand rubles arose, while receivables were repaid in the amount of only 1,568 thousand rubles. The balance at the end of 2008 was 25 thousand rubles. In the total amount of accounts receivable, overdue debt arose in 2014 in the amount of 101 thousand rubles. or 6.94%, 117 thousand rubles repaid. or 7.46%. Out of this, overdue debt lasting more than 3 months arose in the amount of 29 thousand rubles. or 2%, 32 thousand rubles repaid. or 2.04%.

Forecasting the financial condition of an enterprise is based on a whole system of indicators that characterize the structure of sources of capital formation and its placement, the balance between assets and sources of their formation, the efficiency and intensity of the use of capital, the solvency and creditworthiness of the enterprise, its investment attractiveness, etc. For this purpose, the dynamics of each indicator are studied. In some cases, a projected income statement is prepared.

2.2 Enterprise profit analysis

Profit and profitability are among the most important indicators characterizing the efficiency of the production and economic activities of an enterprise.

More than any other indicator, profit reflects the results of all aspects of the enterprise's activities. Its value is influenced by the volume of products, their range, quality, cost level, fines, penalties and other factors.

Profit affects such general indicators as profitability, the state of own working capital, solvency and the size of incentive funds.

Identification of reserves for growth and profitability can be established through a system of interrelated areas of economic analysis.

The task of economic analysis is to assess the total amount of profit and its composition, check the validity of the plan and its implementation in terms of the amount of profit to the level of profitability, and reveal the influence of a number of factors on the deviation actual value profit from the plan, identify reserves for profit growth and profitability.

2.3 Analysis of profit from salescooked products

Profit from the sale of commercial products is the result of production activities and the circulation process and occupies the largest share in the balance sheet profit of the enterprise. Profit from product sales consists of two parts:

1. Profit from sales of commercial products

2. Profit from other sales

It is defined as the difference between revenue from sales of commercial products (excluding VAT) and the cost of commercial products.

To carry out the analysis, we will use the enterprise’s financial statements and draw up the following analytical table 5.

From the analysis of the data given in the table, it follows that profit from the sale of marketable products increased by 8291 thousand rubles.

The change in profit could be influenced by the following factors:

· changes in prices for sold products;

· change in the volume of products sold;

· shifts in the structure and range of products sold;

· change in production cost of goods sold;

· changes in business expenses;

· increase in production costs and commercial expenses

Table 5

Indicators for analyzing profit from sales of commercial products

Let's consider the influence of each of these factors.

1. Change in profit prices

Ptsen = Qрф - Qрпф;

Ptsen140118-122759=17359 thousand. rub.

Due to the increase in prices for sold products, profit increased by 17,359 thousand. rub.

2. Change in sales volume of commercial products

(Sрпф: Sрп) - Пп;Пр = Пп

Por = 13427*(105747/101334)-13427=585 thousand rubles.

Due to the increase in sales volume in the reporting year, profit increased by 585 thousand. rub.

3. The impact of shifts in the structure and range of products sold.

(Qрпф/ Qрп - Sрпф/ Sрп); Pstr = Пп

Pstr = 13427*(122759/114761-105747/101334)=352 thousand rubles.

Due to the increase in the sales volume of the share of more profitable products, the profit at the enterprise increased by 352 thousand. rub.

4. Change in production cost of goods sold

Pps/s= Sрф- Sрпф

Pps/s = 112515-100843 = 11672 thousand rubles.

The increase in production costs in the reporting year due to increased prices for raw materials and supplies led to a decrease in profit by 11,672 thousand rubles.

5. Change in business expenses

Pkr = Sрф- Sрпф

Pkr = 5885-4904 = 981 thousand rubles.

Due to an increase in commercial expenses in the reporting year, compared to the previous year, profit decreased by 981 thousand rubles.

6. Increase in production costs due to structural changes.

Ppps = Sрпх Qрпф/ Qрп - Sрпф;

Ppps = 97005**122759/114761-100843=2923 thousand. rub.

An increase in the sales volume of the share of products for which production costs have decreased led to an increase in profit by 2923 thousand rubles.

7. Increase in commercial expenses due to structural changes.

Pppkr = Sрпх Qрпф/ Qрп - Sрпф;

Pppkr = 4329*122759/114761-4904=-273 thousand rubles.

Due to an increase in the volume of products sold, for which commercial expenses increased, profit decreased by 273 thousand rubles.

The total influence of all factors influencing the change in profit is equal to the deviation of profit from the sale of marketable products of two adjacent years.

PpkrPpps + Pkr + Pps/s + Pstr + Por + Ptsen + Ptot =

Total = 17359+585+352-11672-981+2923-273=8291 thousand rubles.

2.4 Balance sheet profit analysis

Balance sheet profit characterizes the final results of all production and economic activities and non-industrial economic facilities of the enterprise.

Business profit formula:

Pbal = P real + Ppr real + Posn f + VR

VR - non-operating results - fines, penalties, penalties received or paid by the enterprise in the reporting year.

An analysis of balance sheet profit compared to last year shows the impact of the cost of raw materials, materials, fuel and other material and technical resources, changes in prices for product sales and the methodology for calculating profit. In order to exclude this influence, it is necessary to bring the amount of profit into comparable conditions.

Tables are compiled for analysis. 6 and table 7.

The data in tables 6 and 7 show that in 2013, book profit exceeded profit from sales by 324 thousand. rub.; in 2014, profit from sales was 1041 thousand rubles more than the balance sheet. Such changes occurred as a result of income and losses received from non-operating activities. In 2013, these incomes amounted to 4,444 thousand rubles, and in 2014, 90 thousand. rubles, at the same time, losses in 2014 amounted to 1131 thousand. rub., and in the previous year 115 thousand rubles.

Reducing losses is one of the reserves for increasing the balance sheet profit of a joint-stock company.

Table 6

Table 7. Profits and losses of LLC for 2014

Table 8. Profits and losses of LLC for 2013

Chapter 3.Forecasting and analysis of reserves for improving the financial situationLLC "Gezler"

Analyzing Gese LLC for 2008-2012, we can conclude that the company is not in dire financial condition. But there is still a need to improve the financial condition of the enterprise; for this it is necessary to implement certain measures.

Solving the problems of financial recovery of an enterprise is possible by using universal and standard measures to ensure its recovery from the financial crisis. Systems of these activities, implemented on the basis of appropriate scientific and methodological support and aimed at achieving certain goals, form mechanisms for ensuring financial sustainability. They are divided into internal mechanisms used by the enterprise itself, and external ones, implemented with the help of third-party legal entities or individuals.

The main types of internal mechanisms for the financial recovery of an enterprise are: operational, tactical and strategic. Their purpose and content are schematically presented in Table. 17.

Table 17

Internal mechanisms of financial recovery of the enterprise LLC "Business"

The operational mechanism for financial recovery includes measures aimed at reducing the size of the enterprise's current financial obligations in the short term and increasing the volume of monetary assets that ensure the urgent repayment of these obligations. The essence of this mechanism is to reduce the size of current financial needs and individual species liquid assets. The main content of the operational mechanism of financial recovery is to ensure a balance of monetary assets and short-term financial liabilities of the enterprise.

Conducted analytical work study of the financial condition showed that this enterprise belongs to the category of financially unstable, there are negative aspects in the work of the enterprise.

GEZLER LLC has considerable reserves for improving the implementation process, namely:

It is necessary to strive to improve the quality of products and reduce their costs, although this is not easy in the current situation;

It is necessary not to forget about such an important channel for selling products as selling to your employees, since people will be interested in producing quality products. And despite the fact that the selling price here will be low (lower than the market price), this is beneficial for the economy (money comes in immediately, high-quality products are easier to sell on the market and to the state, and selling prices here will rise in direct proportion to the quality).

To develop an enterprise strategy, it is necessary to conduct an in-depth analysis of both the external and internal environment of the enterprise, assessing the strengths and weak sides enterprises..

The strengths of the company are:

High level of remuneration, ensuring a constant supply of qualified personnel;

Highly educated, qualified and experienced personnel of the enterprise;

Developed production infrastructure of the enterprise;

Introduction of new technologies.

The current state of the enterprise can be represented by the following characteristics:

Stable composition of property;

The business activity of the enterprise is stable;

The financial situation is unstable;

Enterprise profitability indicators tending to decrease.

The main threats to the enterprise are:

General decline in the national economy;

Lack of experience in government management of a market economy;

Weak and undeveloped legal regulation framework;

Excessive tax pressure.

The most important ways to improve your health include:

Improving product quality;

Formation of economically rational production potential of the enterprise;

The current situation requires the development of measures to improve the financial condition of the enterprise. To improve the entire structure of the property and assets of an enterprise, a necessary condition is to find funds for this on the most favorable terms. The main such source is a positive result of activity - profit. The amount of profit received directly depends on the volume of sales, therefore, by increasing it, the financial result of the activity can also be increased.

To reduce accounts receivable, the following measures can be proposed:

Improve contract discipline;

Monitor among buyers the formation and timely repayment of accounts receivable;

Concluding a collection agreement with the bank on the acceptance form of settlements with buyer enterprises for obligatory deliveries, as well as concluding with the bank an agreement on the automatic calculation of a fine for each day of delay in the event of late payment for electricity services with issuing a payment request to the bank serving the buyer;

Conclude agreements with clients who are solvent and financially stable, for which it is advisable to form a financial service at the enterprise, whose responsibilities would include checking the solvency of clients and conducting marketing research;

Strengthen control over the status of accounts receivable settlements, that is, the use of Microsoft Excel spreadsheets, which allow analyzing the quality of debt through the use of aggregate formulas;

Having operational data on overdue debts, send notifications.

To reduce accounts payable, GEZLER LLC can offer the following:

Strengthen control over the status of accounts payable settlements;

It is necessary to repay the resulting debt to suppliers and contractors in a timely manner, for which the financial service of the enterprise needs to monitor financial flows and transfer money from the current account to the accounts of suppliers on time.

Table 9 - Forecast balance of GEZLER LLC for the coming year

Based on the compiled forecast balance, we can conclude that the total balance amount has not changed. Own capital increased by 2434 thousand rubles. by increasing profits.

Short-term liabilities decreased by the same amount due to the repayment of accounts payable, in particular debt to suppliers and contractors by 2,234 thousand rubles, debt to the organization’s personnel by 100 thousand rubles, debt to extra-budgetary funds by 30 thousand rubles. and debts on taxes and fees of 70 thousand rubles.

The proposed measures will help improve the financial condition and state of settlements at GEZLER LLC.

Conclusion

Now the company is reaching a qualitatively new level in its work. Main goal GEZLER LLC sees it as increasing the socio-economic importance of retail trade and creating the preconditions for a new civilized approach to organizing retail distribution for the Russian market, adequate to the current economic conditions. Focus on the consumer and market needs, combined with the constant maintenance and expansion of the range of goods and services offered, is the main objective of the enterprise. GEZLER LLC establishes and maintains close ties with product manufacturers in different regions of the country. The establishment of strong economic relations greatly facilitates the sale of goods and leads to a reduction in production costs for the sale of finished products. The company does a lot of work to stimulate product sales, study consumer demand and market conditions.

Analysis of financial condition is the most important characteristic of business activity and reliability of an enterprise. It determines the competitiveness of the enterprise and its potential in business cooperation, and is a guarantor of the effective implementation of the economic interests of all participants in economic activity, both the enterprise itself and its partners.

The main source of information about the financial activities of an enterprise is the financial statements, which have become public. In a market economy, accounting (financial) reporting of business entities becomes the main means of communication and the most important element of information support for financial analysis. When analyzing the financial condition, it is necessary to identify the reasons unstable situation enterprise and outline ways to improve it.

The ratio of provision with current assets tends to decrease. Working capital ratios in production and accounting also decreased. Return on working capital increased and amounted to 0.379 in 2014, and return on sales amounted to 0.06. Let's calculate the efficiency indicators for the use of non-working capital and investment activity of the organization.

In 2014, the amount of accounts payable amounted to 3,124 thousand rubles. After the events, accounts payable will decrease by only 2,434 thousand rubles. At the same time, debt to suppliers and contractors will decrease by 2,234 thousand rubles, debt to organization personnel by 100 thousand rubles, debt to extra-budgetary funds by 30 thousand rubles. and debt on taxes and fees of 70 thousand rubles.

Bibliography

1.Regulations on accounting. 3rd edition add. - Rostov n/d: publishing house "Phoenix", 2013. - 256 p.

2.Anti-crisis management. Theory and practice for university students studying economics and management / ed. V.Ya. Zakharova. - 2nd ed., revised. and additional - M.: UNITY-DANA, 2011 - 304 p.

3. Bakanov M.I., Sheremet A.D. Theory of economic analysis: textbook, M.: Finance and Statistics, 2011. - 398 p.

4. Accounting: Textbook / P.S. Bezrukikh, V.B. Ivashkevich, N.P. Kondrakov and others; Ed. P.S. Bezrukikh. - 3rd ed., revised. and additional - M.: Accounting, 2009. - 624 s.

Analysis and assessment of the financial condition using the example of Sleeping Impregnation Plant LLC and measures to improve the financial condition of the enterprise

The essence and goals of analyzing the financial condition of an enterprise. Requirements for information presented in reporting, restrictions on its use. Analysis of the financial condition of Sleeping Impregnation Plant LLC, assessment of its solvency and profitability.

thesis, added 07/06/2011

Theoretical foundations of financial reporting and methods for analyzing the financial condition of an enterprise. Economic characteristics enterprise LLC MF Tommedfarm, general assessment of its financial condition. Analysis of solvency and financial stability.

course work, added 06/08/2016

The meaning, essence, goals and objectives of analyzing the financial condition of an enterprise. Structure of financial analysis methodology. Eliminating shortcomings in financial activities, finding reserves for improving the financial condition of the enterprise and solvency.

course work, added 10/26/2014

Goals and objectives of analyzing the financial condition of an organization, the main methods for assessing it. Horizontal-vertical analysis of financial indicators. Assessing the financial condition of an enterprise using the effect of financial leverage and predicting bankruptcy.

course work, added 10/26/2014

The essence and purpose of financial and economic analysis, its methods, tools and significance. Features of financial statements and forecasting the future financial condition of the enterprise. Analysis of financial statements using the example of company ABC.

course work, added 04/21/2015

The meaning, objectives and information support for analyzing the financial condition of an enterprise. The procedure for the formation and efficient use of financial resources. Analysis of the composition, structure and dynamics of the organization’s property. Distribution of enterprise profits.

thesis, added 04/19/2015

The main elements of financial statements and their users. Methodology for analyzing the financial condition of an enterprise. Comprehensive assessment of the financial position of MF Tommedfarm LLC. Analysis of the solvency and financial stability of the organization.

course work, added 06/07/2016

The essence and goals of analyzing financial condition and solvency. Assessment and methodology for analyzing property status, financial stability, liquidity and solvency, business activity. Directions for improving the financial condition of the enterprise.

Recently, in economically developed countries there has been a growing trend in the use of more formalized models of enterprise financial management. Moreover, the degree of formalization directly depends on the size of the enterprise: the larger it is, the more often its management should use these methods in the implementation of financial policy. In honor of the fact that in Ukraine there is a large number large enterprises, problem of choice effective method assessing financial condition is a pressing problem. Despite the fact that there are a large number of assessment methods, the process of modifying them and creating new options continues. The economic literature discusses a fairly large number of methods for assessing the financial condition of an enterprise, which were developed by domestic scientists.

In Western countries, about 60% of large and 20% of small and medium-sized enterprises use formalized quantitative methods in practice to manage financial resources and analyze the financial condition of the enterprise (FSP).

The basis for forecasting FSP is the study of financial and economic activities in the past period, as well as changes in external and internal business conditions in the future. As a rule, the FSP forecast is presented in the form of two alternative directions:

1) a forecast of one or more individual indicators that are of the greatest interest and significance for the analyst, for example: sales revenue, profit, cost of production, etc.;

2) a forecast in the form of enterprise reporting tables in a standard or enlarged nomenclature of articles.

Thus, the first direction uses historical data as the basis for forecasting each line item in the balance sheet and income statement. The main advantage of this direction is that the resulting forecast makes it possible to comprehensively analyze the FSP. Consequently, the enterprise analyst receives maximum information that he can use for various purposes, for example, to calculate the acceptable rate of increase in production activities, the required amount of additional resources from external sources, the calculation of any financial ratios, etc.

The second direction is divided into two trips. In the first approach, each item in the balance sheet and income statement is forecast separately, based on its individual dynamics. In turn, the second approach takes into account the existing relationship between individual items both within one reporting form and from different forms. After all, various reporting lines must change dynamically in a consistent manner, since they characterize the same economic system.

One of the methods for predicting the financial condition of an enterprise is the method of expert assessments. This method involves a multi-stage survey of experts using specially developed schemes, as well as processing the results obtained using economic statistics tools. The application of this experience, as a rule, in practice consists of using the experience and knowledge of commercial, financial and other managers. Typically, this approach ensures that decisions are made in the simplest and fastest way. However, this method has its drawback - high forecasting inaccuracy and lack of personal responsibility for the forecast made. Therefore, expert estimates are most often used to predict revenue, profit and market share.

There are also deterministic methods that assume the presence of functional or strictly determined connections, when each value of a factor characteristic corresponds to a well-defined non-random value of the resultant characteristic.

The next method is the method of proportional dependencies, which is based on identifying the most important indicators that could be used as base ones to determine the forecast values ​​of other indicators. For example, many enterprises use enterprise revenue to determine the cost of products sold.

Let's consider a balance model for forecasting the economic potential of an enterprise. The balance sheet of an enterprise can be described by various balance sheet equations that reflect the relationship between the assets and liabilities of the enterprise. The simplest of them is the basic balance equation, which has the form:

where: A – assets,

E – own capital;

L – obligations of the enterprise.

Thus, the balance sheet model gives management an excellent opportunity to calculate the forecast value of one of the parameters of the equation: total assets, equity capital or borrowed funds, subject to the availability of values ​​for the other two.

Stochastic methods have a probabilistic nature, both for forecasting and for the relationship between the indicators being studied. In this case, the probability of obtaining an accurate forecast increases with the number of empirical data.

The method of simple dynamic analysis is that the predicted indicator (Y) changes directly or inversely over time. Therefore, to determine the predicted values ​​of the Y indicator, the following relationship is often used:

Yt = a + b * t (2)

where: t is the serial number of the period.

As a rule, the regression equation parameters (a, b) are found using the least squares method. By substituting the required t value into formula (2), the required forecast can be calculated. This method is most suitable for forecasting revenue, since changes in this indicator over time most often occur in accordance with a trend built on the basis of data from previous periods.

The method of autoregressive dependencies is that economic processes are characterized by interdependence and a certain inertia. The inertia of processes means that the value of almost any economic indicator at time t depends on the state of this indicator in previous periods. The autoregressive equation in its most general form has the form:

Yt = A0 + A1 * Yt-1 + A2 * Yt-2 +…+ Ak * Yt-k (3)

where: Yt - predicted value of indicator Y at time t;

Yt-i - the value of the Y indicator at time (t-i);

At- i-th coefficient regression.

To build a forecast of any indicator, taking into account existing relationships between it and other indicators, multivariate regression analysis is used. First, as a result of qualitative analysis, the analyst identifies k factors (X1, X2,..., Xk), which, in his opinion, influence the change in the predicted indicator Y, and, as a rule, builds a linear regression relationship of the type:

Y = A0 + A1 * X1 + A2 * X2 +…+ Ak * Xk, (4)

where Ai are regression coefficients, i = 1,2,...,k.

The values ​​of the regression coefficients (A0, A1, A2,..., Ak) are determined using standard statistical computer programs.

As a rule, multifactor regression analysis is used to predict the values ​​of current and non-current assets of an enterprise.

The main criteria when choosing an effective method for assessing the financial condition of an enterprise are the accuracy of the forecast and the completeness of the presentation of the future FSP. From this point of view, of course, the best methods are those that allow the construction of forecast reporting forms. In this case, the future state of the enterprise can be analyzed in no less detail than its current position.

Literature:

1. Bakanov M.I. Sheremet A.D. Theory of economic analysis: Textbook. – 5th ed., revised. and additional / M. I. Bakanov, A. D. Sheremet, - M.: Finance and Statistics, 2008. - 526 p.

2. Kovalev V.V. Introduction to financial management / V.V. Kovalev. – M.: Finance and Statistics, 2009. – 768 p.

3. Efimova O. V. Financial analysis / O. V. Efimova. – M.: Accounting, 2008. – 208 p.

4. Dubrov A. M. Multivariate statistical methods / A. M. Dubrov, V. S. Mkhitaryan, L. I. Troshin. – M.: Finance and Statistics, 2008. – 350 p.

home » Investments » Analysis and forecast of the financial condition of the enterprise. Forecast analysis of the financial condition of the organization. Review of basic forecasting methods