Formation of the sixth technological structure: problems and prospects. The sixth technological structure and the development of the world economy What is the fourth industrial structure
Bulletin of Stavropol State University
SIXTH TECHNOLOGICAL WAY AND PROSPECTS FOR RUSSIA (BRIEF REVIEW)
V. M. Averbukh
THE SIXTH TECHNOLOGICAL SETUP AND PERSPECTIVES OF RUSSIA (ABSTRACT)
The article describes the fragments of the economy and science condition in Russia, technological setups, long-range forecasts of innovative technologies for 2030. The aim is to enter the 6th technological setup in accordance with the materials of the Russian Academy of Science of 2008 .
Key words: economy, export, technological setup, long-range forecast, the forecast period -2030.
The article examines: fragments of the state of the economy and science of Russia; technological structures; long-term forecasts innovative technologies for 2030; the goal is to enter the sixth technological structure, based on materials from the 2008 session of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Key words: economy, export, technological structure, long-term forecast, forecast period 2030.
UDC 681.513.54:681.578.25
Through the works of the outstanding domestic economist N.D. Kondratiev, the concept of cyclicality in the economy was formulated. This theory was further developed in the works of academicians D.S. Lvov and S.Yu. Glazyev under the modern name “Technological structure”. Technological structure (wave) - a set of technologies characteristic of a certain level of production development; In connection with scientific, technical and technological progress, there is a transition from lower structures to higher, progressive ones.
Currently, six technological structures are distinguished (Fig. 1). The world is moving towards the sixth technological order, approaching it, working on it. Russia today is mainly in the third, fourth and first stages of the fifth technological order. The latter includes mainly enterprises of high-tech military- industrial complex.
The third technological structure - (1880-1940) is based on the use of industrial production electrical energy, the development of heavy engineering and electrical industry based on the use of rolled steel, new discoveries in the field of chemistry. Radio communications, telegraphs, and automobiles were introduced. Large firms, cartels, syndicates, and trusts appeared. Monopolies dominated the market. The concentration of banking and financial capital began.
The fourth way (1930-1990) is based on the further development of energy using oil and petroleum products, gas, communications, and new synthetic materials. This is the era of mass production of cars, tractors, airplanes, various types weapons, consumer goods. Computers and software products for them, and radars appeared and became widespread. The atom is used for military and then for peaceful purposes. Mass production was organized based on conveyor technology. Oligopolistic competition dominates the market. Transnational and multinational companies emerged that made direct investments in the markets of various countries.
The fifth way (1985-2035) is based on achievements in the field of microelectronics, computer science, biotechnology, genetic engineering, new types of energy, materials, space exploration, satellite communications, etc. There is a transition from isolated firms to unified network large
and small companies connected by an electronic network based on the Internet, carrying out close interaction in the field of technology, product quality control, and innovation planning.
The sixth technological structure will be characterized by the development of robotics, biotechnologies based on the achievements of molecular biology and genetic engineering, nanotechnology, artificial intelligence systems, global information networks, and integrated high-speed transport systems. Within the framework of the sixth technological order, flexible automation of production, space technologies, production of structural materials with predetermined properties, the nuclear industry, air transportation will be further developed, nuclear energy will grow, the consumption of natural gas will be complemented by the expansion of the use of hydrogen as an environmentally friendly energy carrier, will expand significantly use of renewable energy sources.
Rhythm of the Tsyulogash * way of life” and generations of tinish
Figure 1. Technological structures
Thus, our country faces the most important and most difficult task - to make the transition to the sixth way of life (having not fully mastered the previous fifth) and to catch up with advanced countries in this direction. This stage has already begun and will last 50-60 years. During this time, the world will move further to the seventh or even eighth technological stage. And we need to take this into account in our long-term forecasts.
The future is laid in the past and present. Below are fragments of the current state of Russia's economy and scientific research.
The current standard of living of the majority of the population of the Russian Federation is supported by exports, the share of which in world GDP is less than 2%. Main export items: gas and oil (70%), primary (unprocessed) metals (15%), round (unprocessed) timber (10%). Everything else, including equipment, technology, weapons, is less than 5%. Russia's share in world markets high technology barely reaches 0.2-0.3%.
A breakthrough is possible only through the creation of new high-tech technologies, primarily for export. But it is known that spending on scientific research in the Russian Federation over the previous 18 years has decreased by more than five times and has approached the level of developing countries. Russia today spends seven times less on science than Japan, and 20 times less than the United States. The number of researchers has more than halved; many now work abroad. The number of domestic publications is decreasing slightly, while, for example, in India and Brazil it is increasing sharply. Thus, in general, in terms of the level of development of high technologies, the country has rolled back, according to the most conservative estimates, 10-15 years ago, and in some areas - even 20.
It is possible to make a breakthrough in the development of the latest, competitive technologies by carrying out long-term forecasting and long-term planning of scientific research and subsequent production latest technologies and products.
Figure 2. Share of manufacturers of high-tech products in the world (by job 5)
The impetus for intensifying forecasting developments was given by the President of the Russian Federation D. A. Medvedev, who urgently instructed the Russian Academy of Sciences in 2008 to develop scientific and technical forecasts for the country's development for the long term - until 2030 with the aim of bringing the country's economy out of the deeply unsatisfactory state of almost the entire situation affairs in the country: science, technology, economics. And the main thing is to enter the international market with high-tech developments.
In 2008, at the general meeting of the Russian Academy of Sciences entitled “Scientific and technical forecasting is the most important element of Russia’s development strategy,” in his opening remarks, the President of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Academician Yu. S. Osipov, emphasized: “Our Academy considers carrying out forecasting research as one of the priorities of its activities.. ."
There are two reasons for intensifying scientific forecasting.
The external reason was named by Academician A. Dynkin. According to him, more than 70 countries are engaged in scientific and technical forecasting, including even Malaysia (28 million inhabitants, per capita income 14 thousand dollars). In these countries, the market opportunities of inventions and technologies are studied (i.e., application is predicted), and obstacles to the advancement of development into practice are identified. Our domestic business environment is openly hostile to innovation. Russia has chosen the wrong path - to acquire high technologies abroad, reducing investments in its own science to zero. According to Academician A.D. Nekipelov, the internal reason is the need to move away from the fuel and raw material scenario of the country's development at an increasing pace, and therefore the problem of technological forecasting has come to the fore.
At the session, 9 reports and 8 speeches were made on the topics under consideration. The adopted Resolution of the General Meeting of the Russian Academy of Sciences states: “... consider work in the field of scientific and technical progress as one of the priority areas of activity of the Russian Academy of Sciences; approve the initiative of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences to create an Interdepartmental Coordination Council
RAS on socio-economic and scientific-technological forecasting; will contact the Government of the Russian Federation with a proposal to create a unified system of state forecasting in order to determine the scientific basis country development priorities.
The RAS Coordination Council for Forecasting was created under the leadership of Vice President A.D. Nekipelov. The following 15 thematic sections have been formed:
1. Theories, methods and organizations of forecasting. 2. Modeling and information support. 3. Forecasting economic dynamics. 4. Forecasting the development of science, education and innovation. 5. Forecasting the development of nanotechnologies and new materials. 6. Forecasting biology and medical technologies. 7. Forecasting information and communication technologies. 8. Forecasting the agro-industrial complex. 9. Forecasting social and demographic development. 10. Forecasting environmental management and ecology. 11. Forecasting the energy complex. 12. Forecasting mechanical engineering, defense industry and transport. 13. Forecasting socio-political processes and institutions. 14. Forecasting spatial development. 15. Forecasting the development of the world economy and international relations.
The Academy created the document “Forecast - 2030”. On its basis, Russian President D. A. Medvedev announced the main vectors economic modernization countries for 20 years: 1) Leadership in the efficiency of production, transportation and use of energy. New types of fuel; 2) Development of nuclear technologies; 3) Improving information and global networks. Supercomputers; 4) Space research will bring real benefits in all areas of activity of our citizens from travel to agriculture and industry; 5) Significant breakthrough in medical equipment, diagnostics and medicines. Naturally - weapons and agricultural development.
Bulletin of Stavropol State University [¡vdN
The main task is competitiveness and access to the international market in all directions, to increase the efficiency of products in the domestic market. Possibly mixed forecasts.
According to Yu. S. Osipov, “the forecast itself should be developed by the scientific community under the auspices of the state... it is necessary to create unified system state forecasting, with the help of which the authorities could, on a scientific basis, determine the priorities of the country’s strategic development.”
In his speech in 2009, D. A. Medvedev said: “The country’s transition to a higher level of civilization is possible. And it will be carried out using non-violent methods. Not by coercion, but by persuasion. Not by suppression, but by revealing the creative potential of each individual. Not by intimidation, but by interest. Not by confrontation, but by bringing together the interests of the individual, society and the state...intellectual resources, a “smart” economy that creates unique knowledge, and the export of the latest technologies and products innovation activity».
In our opinion, the interaction between long-term forecasting, business, regions, the state and developers (inventors) should be legislated, defining the degree and form of participation, measures of responsibility, etc. d. The final result should be the introduction of a product or technology to the foreign market. About the need for adoption legislative framework in the field of innovative development and forecasting was discussed at a meeting of the Interdepartmental Group within the framework of the IV National Congress “Priorities for Economic Development. Modernization and technological development of the Russian economy" (Moscow, October 8, 2009).
D. A. Medvedev also spoke about political, economic and social tasks. He believes that “the inventor, innovator, scientist, teacher, entrepreneur will become the most respected people in society. Everyone will get it
necessary for fruitful activity." This program includes the attraction of foreign specialists, benefits for researchers, and legislative and government support.”
Further, D. A. Medvedev said: “We will increase the efficiency social sphere in all areas, paying increased attention to the tasks of material and medical support for veterans and pensioners.” Actually, this is what it is the main objective long-term forecasting in order to create technologies of the sixth technological order.
The successful implementation of scientific and technical forecasts will make it possible to competently develop and then implement social forecasts for the country’s development. After all, this is the main task of the country’s development.
According to B. N. Kuzyka, a number of technologies of the sixth way already have a certain groundwork. In Russia, as of 2008, there is breakthrough research and development in the field of critical technologies in almost all areas of the sixth technological order (Fig. 3).
Thus, research carried out in key areas of the sixth technological order suggests that we have a chance. We need to focus our personnel, financial, and organizational resources on these priorities so as not to waste energy on developing those areas in which other countries have already gone too far relative to our level, and we will have to borrow world achievements.
But in order to successfully fulfill the forecasts and enter the sixth technological structure, it is necessary, in our opinion, to consolidate the order of interaction between the Russian Academy of Sciences and business at the government level. Scientists of the Russian Academy of Sciences determine the vectors (long-term forecasting), and corporations and the business community in the direction justify the general goal of the research, draw up technical task for the development of research, regulatory and organizational forecasts, up to industrial sales of products indicating
I pformatioppo-kommu pika ciop-pye systems 1 software production technologies 1 bioinformation technologies 1 technologies for creating intelligent navigation and control systems 1 technologies for processing, storing, transmitting and protecting information 1 technologies for distributed computing and systems 1 technologies for creating an electronic component base Rational environmental management 1 technologies for monitoring and forecasting the state of the atmosphere and hydrosphere 1 technologies for assessing resources and forecasting the state of the lithosphere and biosphere > technologies for reducing the risk and reducing the consequences of natural and man-made disasters > technologies for processing and recycling of man-made formations and waste > technologies for environmentally safe mining and mining
Nanosystems industry and materials 1 technologies for creating biocompatible materials 1 technologies for creating membranes and catalytic systems 1 technologies for creating and processing polymers and elastomers 1 technologies for creating and processing crystalline materials 1 technologies for creating and processing composite and ceramic materials 1 nanotechnologies and nanomaterials 1 mechatronics technologies and development of microsystem technology
Energy and energy saving 1 nuclear energy technology, nuclear fuel cycle, safe management of radioactive waste and spent waste nuclear fuel> hydrogen energy technologies 1 technologies for creating energy-saving systems for the transportation, distribution and consumption of heat and electricity > technologies for new and renewable energy sources 1 technologies for the production of fuel and energy from organic raw materials
Living systems 1 bioengineering technologies 1 biocatalytic, biosynthetic and biosensor technologies 1 biomedical and veterinary technologies for life support and protection of humans and animals 1 genomic and post-genomic technologies for the maturation of medicinal products 1 technologies for environmentally safe resource-saving production and processing of agricultural raw materials and food products 1 cellular technologies
Transport and aerospace technologies > technologies for creating new generations of rocket, space, aviation and marine technology > technologies for creating and managing new types of transport systems 1 technologies for creating energy-efficient engines and propulsors for transport systems
The level of Russian developments corresponds to the world level, and in certain areas Russia is a leader
Russian developments generally correspond to the world level * Russian developments are generally inferior to the world level and only in certain areas the level is comparable
Figure 3. Status of basic research and development in Russia for 2008 (for work 5)
Bulletin of Stavropol State University [¡vdN
possible deadlines for completing individual stages. Accordingly, firms must, in their financial plans allocate up to 3-5% of the budget for forecasting and development of scientific research, possibly together with the state. And all this work should be under the control of the forecasting sections of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Russian Government. These are not coercion of business, but rules, just like the Rules of the Road, which are mandatory for all participants. And for violations (failure to allocate appropriate funds, failure to meet deadlines, etc.) penalties should be applied. But there should also be incentives.
We should not forget that such large-scale forecasting - from the vectors of the country's development to specific technologies and their parameters requires the effective organization of information support for forecasting activities.
Moreover, when carrying out scientific and technical forecasting, one of the basic principles of forecasting should be observed - the relationship between scientific, technical and social forecasts.
However, in order to avoid distortions - oblivion of the internal development of elements of the 4th and 5th technological structures, it is necessary to
carry out forecasting in these areas as well.
Society, especially business society, must realize that without scientific forecasting, the further development of our country is simply not possible. And for successful forecasting it is necessary to train specialist forecasters. Since forecasting is supposed to be carried out on the development of regions, federal universities simply must create departments of futurology and train forecasters in technical, sociological and other areas, depending on the economy of the region. And in the management structure of regions and cities there should be forecasting units. Issues of scientific forecasting in our country must be resolved at the state level by our entire community.
In conclusion, it should be noted that current schoolchildren will have to predict, create new technologies, and use them in the sixth technological order, therefore, without reorienting the entire education system to new level technological life in everyday life, without a general rise in the cultural level of all layers of our society, technological progress will not give the expected effect.
LITERATURE
1. Averbukh V. M. An integrated approach to forecasting in a research and production association // All-Union scientific and practical conference “Efficiency of associations and improvement of cost accounting. Plenary session of the section “Problems of improving cost accounting in associations”: abstracts of reports. - L., 1979. - P. 138-139.
2. Actual problems innovative development. Selection of innovation priorities: Materials of the meeting of the Interdepartmental Working Group within the framework of the IV National Congress “Priorities of Economic Development, Modernization and Technological Development of the Russian Economy” (Moscow, October 8, 2009): information. newsletter. Vol. 11. - M., 2010. - P. 7-21.
3. Glazyev S. Yu. Choice of the future. - M.: Algorithm, 2005.
4. Kondratiev N. D. Large cycles of conjuncture and the theory of foresight: selected works. - M.: Economics, 2002.
5. Kuzyk B. N. Innovative development of Russia: scenario approach. (Published by KIG on January 5, 2910 - 13:56).
6. Lvov D.S. Efficiency of technical development management. M.: Economics, 1990.
7. Scientific session General meeting Russian Academy of Sciences “Scientific and technological forecast - the most important element of Russia’s development strategy” // Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. - 2009. - T. 79. - No. 3. - P. 195-261
8. Forecast of scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation for the long term
perspective (until 2030) // Conceptual approaches, directions, forecast estimates and implementation conditions. - M.: RAS, 2008.
Averbukh Viktor Mikhailovich, State Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education
"Stavropol State University", doctor technical sciences, senior scientific
employee; Head of the scientific and technical information sector of the research department of SSU. Area of scientific interests: scientific and technical forecasting, scientific and technical information, history of science. [email protected]
INTRODUCTION
1 The concept of technological structures
IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGICAL STRUCTURES ON THE RF ECONOMY
CONCLUSION
LIST OF SOURCES USED
INTRODUCTION
Currently, the problem of transferring the economy of our country to an innovative path of development is relevant and is increasingly attracting the attention of scientific circles. The President of Russia set the task of creating a “smart” economy, which predetermines the need for the development of science and the dynamic implementation of its achievements. Since the task at hand covers many aspects of our lives, a special integrated indicator is required to assess the success of its implementation. Today, the role of such an indicator is increasingly being claimed by the concept of “technological structure”, which was introduced into science by Russian economists D.S. Lvov and S.Yu. Glazyev.
A technological structure is a set of technologies that are used at a certain level of production development. The change in ways of life reflects the pattern of cyclical economic development.
On modern stage In the development of human civilization, it is important to make the transition to the sixth technological order. For this stage Deep, comprehensive integration of technologies, as well as expansion of the technological base, are natural. However, in Russia this process faces numerous difficulties, from which we can highlight the technological diversity of production, the low speed of the innovation cycle, the technical and resource situation, etc.
Thus, the problem of transition to the sixth technological structure is relevant for Russia, since with the introduction of advanced technologies and the formation of key directions of the post-industrial technological structure, prospects for an innovative breakthrough and prospects for the development of an innovative economy appear.
The object of research is technological structures in the modern system of economic and technological relations.
The subject of the study is the role of technological structures in the development of an innovative economy modern Russia.
The purpose of this final qualifying work is to study the problems of the functioning of the innovative economy in the context of the formation and development of new technological structures.
TECHNOLOGICAL STRUCTURES IN THE ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
1 The concept of technological structure
IN last years in world economic thought, an understanding of economic dynamics has developed as an uneven and uncertain process of evolutionary development social production. From this point of view, scientific and technological progress is presented in the form of a complex interaction of various technological alternatives, implemented by competing and cooperating economic entities in the conditions of the appropriate institutional environment. The selection of alternatives and their implementation in the form of structural changes in social production is carried out as a result of complex processes of learning and adaptation of society to new technological opportunities. These processes are mediated by a variety of nonlinear positive and negative feedbacks that determine the dynamics of the interaction of technological and social changes.
Such an unconventional understanding of economic dynamics allows us to take a new approach to the issues of studying the patterns of technical and economic development (TED) and the problems of managing scientific and technological progress. In theory, the greatest relevance is the study of the interaction of technological shifts and changes in economic relations, the problems of long-term forecasting of global economic development, and measuring the socio-economic efficiency of scientific and technical progress areas. Among the practical problems, the most important are: modern institutional changes in order to adapt society to new technological opportunities and compensate for social resistance to organizational and economic changes in production; development of methods for determining the priorities of fuel and energy resources and identifying the most effective ways their implementation, etc.
New approach the study of economic dynamics is also predetermined by a new representation of the economic structure. To study the processes of fuel and energy development, it is important to develop a point of view on economic reality that would ensure the “transparency” of the economic system in the process of technical changes. “Transparency” is ensured by the stability of system elements and the relationships between them. Adequate to the task of studying the patterns of technical development of the economy, the representation of the economic structure presupposes such a choice of its main element, which would not only maintain integrity in the process of technological changes, but would also be a carrier technological changes.
As this element, a set of technologically related industries was proposed, preserving its integrity in the process of its development. Through similar technological chains (TC), such aggregates are combined into a stable, self-reproducing integrity, a conglomerate of related industries - a technological structure (TS). The latter covers a closed reproduction cycle - from the extraction of natural resources and professional training to non-productive consumption. Based on this representation of the technological structure of the economy, its dynamics can be described as a process of development and consistent change of technological structures.
TU has a complex internal structure. Its core is formed by a set of basic technological processes, underlying the corresponding basic technological systems (TS) and coupled through complementary technological processes. The technological chains that make up technical specifications cover technical systems of all levels of resource processing and are closed to the corresponding type of non-productive consumption.
2 Periodization of technological structures
The periodization of technological structures in more detail is as follows.
. The basis of the first technological structure is the mechanization of the textile industry. The basic innovations of this way of life: Kay's shuttle-plane loom (1733), spinning machines by Watt (1735), Hargreave and Arkwright, mechanical looms by Robertson and Horrocks (1760s).
Also, new fabric processing technologies were introduced (dying, fabric printing, etc.). The mechanization of the textile industry is associated with the development of the production of structural materials. In ferrous metallurgy, charcoal was replaced by hard coal. At the same time, innovations appeared in the field of metalworking. The economic recovery ensured the development of transport infrastructure.
However, at the beginning of the 19th century, demand for textile products became saturated, and therefore a search began for new areas of capital investment.
In the first technological structure, energy was used directly without its conversion.
.The basis of the second technological structure is the creation of a steam engine. It served as the basis for the development of heavy industry.
The rapid development of metalworking and the creation of a steam engine are the main conditions for the production of various machines and the mechanization of labor, both in many industries and in construction. There was rapid growth in the ferrous metallurgy, coal industry, and transport engineering.
The second technological order was characterized by large-scale railway construction.
Global mechanization of labor and concentration of production were accompanied by the growth of heavy engineering and mining, the development of metallurgy and machine tool manufacturing.
Over time, the possibilities for improving technology and organizing large-scale production using a steam engine were exhausted. At the same time, the population’s demand was saturated, based mainly on products Agriculture and light industry.
In the second technological mode, there is a single-stage conversion of fuel energy into mechanical energy of the engine, similar to the cause-and-effect relationship (proximate cause).
The basis of the third technological structure is the use of electric motors and the intensive development of electrical engineering. At the same time, the specialization of steam engines took place. Electrical technology ensured further growth in the mechanization of production and labor productivity. Electroplating processes for refining copper and electrolytically extracting oxygen and hydrogen were introduced. With the advent of the electric motor, production machines have become more flexible and mobile. The diversity of engineering production accelerated further progress in iron and steel industry.
During the third cycle, blast furnace technology and steel rolling technologies were introduced.
Rapid mechanical engineering and ferrous metallurgy contributed to technical re-equipment and growth of the mining industry.
Also, in the third technological paradigm, basic technologies of inorganic chemistry were introduced and became widespread: the ammonia process for producing soda; production of sulfuric acid by contact method; production of nitric acid by contact oxidation of ammonia and direct fixation of atmospheric nitrogen, production mineral fertilizers; coke production; petrochemical production; production of synthetic dyes; production explosives; electrochemical technology.
Technological complexes of the third technological order continued to be reproduced until the mid-60s, but the main engine of fuel and energy resources from the mid-30s became the production of a new technological order.
In the third technological paradigm, when using electricity, there is a transformation and distribution of electricity flows in the form of a chain (tree) of cause-and-effect relationships similar to one.
The basis of the fourth technological order is the chemical industry, automotive industry, and production of motorized weapons.
This stage is characterized by comprehensive mechanization of production, automation of many basic technological processes, widespread use of qualified work force, increased specialization of production.
During the life cycle of the fourth technological structure, the rapid development of the electric power industry continued. The main energy carrier was oil, and the mode of land transport was automobiles. A global telecommunications system based on telephone and radio communications was created.
By the mid-70s, the fourth technological order had reached the limits of its expansion in developed countries. The population's demand for durable goods and consumer goods has been satisfied.
In the fourth technological order, electrical appliances for household use appear - not only industrial, but also household use of electricity (an analogue of arbitrary causality).
The basis of the fifth technological order is the intensive development of information and communication technologies.
Microelectronics is a key factor during the unfolding scientific and technological revolution. Another key factor is software.
Among the driving industries that form the core of the fifth technological order, electronic components and devices (including semiconductor and related devices), electronic storage devices, resistors, transformers, connectors, electronic computers, calculating machines, radio and telecommunications equipment can be identified. , laser equipment, software and computer maintenance services.
Among the main supporting industries of the fifth technological order, one should point out the production of automation equipment and telecommunications equipment.
At the 5th technological level, in information systems ah (Internet, etc.) phenomena similar to mass (social causation) are observed.
3 Interaction of technological structures in the economy
technological structure economics production
Economic dynamics in world economic thought is defined as an uneven and uncertain process of the evolutionary development of social production. Whereas NTP is presented in the form of a complex interaction of various technological alternatives, which are implemented by cooperating and competing economic entities in certain conditions of the corresponding institutional environment. As a result of complex processes of learning and adaptation of society to new technological opportunities, these alternatives are selected, as well as their implementation in the form of structural changes in social production. These processes have a variety of nonlinear positive and negative feedbacks that determine the dynamics of the interaction of technological and social changes.
Using such a non-traditional understanding of economic dynamics allows us to take a fresh look at the issues of studying the characteristics and patterns of technical and economic development (TED), identify and try to solve the problems of managing scientific and technological progress. IN economic theory The study of the interaction of technological shifts is becoming increasingly important. also in modern conditions It is very important to study the problems of forecasting global economic development in the long term, measuring the socio-economic efficiency of areas and branches of scientific and technical progress. Among the practical problems, the most important are: adapting society to new technological opportunities with the help of modern institutional and organizational changes, compensating for social resistance to organizational and economic changes in production, determining the priorities of fuel and energy resources and identifying the most effective ways to develop production, including in Russia.
A new approach to the study of economic dynamics involves the emergence of a new representation of economic structure. To study the processes of technical and economic development, it is necessary to develop a certain point of view on economic reality, one that could guarantee the “transparency” of the economic system in the process of technical transformations. The stability of the system elements and the relationships between them provide this “transparency”. The representation of the economic structure is adequate to the task of studying the patterns of technical changes in the economy; it presupposes a choice of its main element that would maintain integrity in the process of technological shifts, and would also be the bearer of technological changes.
This element is a set of technologically related industries that maintains its integrity in the process of its development. With the help of similar technological chains, these aggregates form a stable self-reproducing integrity, a connection of related industries or, in other words, a technological structure, which, in turn, covers a closed reproductive cycle. The beginning of this cycle is the extraction of natural resources and professional training personnel, and the final stage is non-productive consumption. Based on this idea, the dynamics of the technological structure of the economy is nothing more than a process of development and a consistent change of technological structures.
Within the technological structure, a closed macro-level production cycle is carried out, which includes the extraction and receipt of primary resources, as well as their processing and production of final products that satisfy the needs of the corresponding type of public consumption. When a technological structure is considered in the dynamics of functioning, it represents a reproducing integrity or a so-called reproductive circuit. In the case when a technological structure is considered statically, it can be characterized “as a certain set of units that are similar in the qualitative characteristics of resource technologies and manufactured products,” in other words, as an economic level. It is characterized by a single technical level its constituent industries, interconnected by vertical and horizontal flows of qualitatively homogeneous resources and relying on common resources of qualified labor, on common scientific and technical potential, etc.
The technological structure has a complex internal structure. The core of the technological structure is formed by a set of basic technological processes, which are the foundation of the corresponding basic technological systems and are linked through complementary technological processes. The next component of the technological structure is technological chains, covering all technological complexes of all levels of resource processing. Technological chains are closed to the corresponding type of non-productive consumption, which closes the reproductive contour of the technological structure and, at the same time, serves as an integral source of its expansion, ensures reproduction labor resources of appropriate quality.
The economic structure contains integral, reproducing complexes of related industries. Their presence is due to the unevenness of scientific and technical progress. According to a common simplified view, scientific and technological progress is a constant process of modernization of social production through the so-called “washing out” of outdated products and technologies and then the introduction of new ones. In reality, technical and economic development occurs by alternating stages of evolutionary changes and periods of structural restructuring of the economy. In the course of these changes, a set of radically new technologies is being introduced and old ones are being replaced.
In the course of the development of production of the corresponding technological structure, when they are replaced, conditions are created in which structural restructuring of the economy occurs. The successive stages of scientific and technical progress and the corresponding technological structures are interconnected, they are successive. The result of the development of the previous stage is the formation of the material and technical base for the formation of the subsequent stage. Thus, a new technological structure is emerging within the old one. Then, as it develops, it adapts the production that developed within the framework of the previous stage of scientific and technical progress to the needs of the technological processes that form its core.
The formation and change of technological structures is expressed in a market economy in the form of long waves of economic conditions. The life cycle phases of a technological structure - formation, growth, maturity, decline - affect the rate of economic growth and the level of economic activity, changing them. These indicators increase in the formation phase; in the growth phase they reach a maximum. After this, in the phase of decline, they reach a minimum, since the possibilities for improving the industries included in the technological structure are exhausted, and there is a glut of corresponding social needs.
During this phase, there is a sharp drop in the profitability of capital investments in traditional technologies. Under the influence of this factor, radical innovations are being introduced that form the core of a new technological structure. With the spread of innovations, a new cycle of wave-like modernizations of the economic situation begins, which is associated with the expansion of a new technological structure and is capable of replacing the previous one. In addition, the mechanism of market self-organization synchronizes innovations and shifts in various sectors, such as mechanical engineering, production of structural materials, raw materials, energy, construction, and communications. Radical innovations stimulate and complement each other; they are synchronized, and the basis of such synchronization is technological interdependence. Inventions and radical discoveries that appear within one industry may remain unclaimed and unrealized until corresponding innovations are created in other industries, as well as until such conditions are formed in which an integral system of related industries is formed. In turn, the production of one technological structure simultaneously reaches the maturity phase and growth limits, at the moment when the common type of non-productive consumption saturates and the possibilities for technological improvement that unite them in technological chains are exhausted.
NEW TECHNOGICAL WAY OF RUSSIA
1 Development of a new technological structure in Russia
Recently, the attention of many researchers and scientists has been focused on the problem of the formation of a new technological structure. At the present stage of development of human civilization, it is necessary to make a transition to the sixth technological structure. On a global scale, the pattern of this stage lies in the deep, comprehensive integration of technologies and the expansion of the technological base. However, Russia faces numerous difficulties on its way to the sixth technological order.
The presence of one or another technological structure in Russia at present can be characterized as follows. The third technological order is now in a stage of stagnation, and the share of its technologies is about 30%. The fourth technological structure is in the maturity phase with a share of over 50%. The fifth technological structure has reached a phase of intensive growth and its technologies account for 10%. As for the sixth technological structure, its share is still very small and amounts to less than 1%. All this allows us to conclude that Russia is in the fourth technological structure in combination with the third and elements of the fifth technological structure. The sixth technological structure has not yet been formed in Russia.
The emergence of a new technological order in the world began approximately 15 - 20 years ago. So already in the early 1990s, in the depths of the fifth technological structure, new elements began to be more and more clearly visible that cannot be called the core of this structure. Thus, a new sixth technological order is being formed, and the time of dominance of the fifth is shortening. This technological order is already reaching the limits of its growth. The rise and fall of energy prices and the global financial crisis are sure signs that the dominant structure is reaching the final phase of its life cycle and the structural restructuring of the economy on the basis of the next structure is beginning.
The starting point in the formation of the sixth technological order is considered to be the development of nanotechnologies in the transformation of substances and the construction of new material objects, cellular technologies for modifying living organisms, including genetic engineering methods. These key factors, together with the electronics industry, information technology and software, form the core of the new order.
It is obvious that the key areas of its development are biotechnologies, represented by the achievements of molecular biology and genetic engineering, global information networks, artificial intelligence systems and integrated high-speed transport systems. The development of flexible production automation, space technologies, production of structural materials, the nuclear industry, and air transportation will continue. Expanding the use of hydrogen as an environmentally friendly energy carrier will complement the growth of nuclear energy and natural gas consumption. The use of renewable energy sources will expand significantly. In production there will be an even greater intellectualization of processes, in most industries there will be a transition to a continuous innovation process and continuous education in most professions. The “intelligent society” will replace the “consumer society”, placing priority on the requirements for the quality of life and the comfort of the living environment. In the production sector there will be a transition to environmentally friendly and waste-free technologies. Progress in the field of information processing technologies, telecommunications systems, and financial technologies will entail further globalization of the economy and the formation of a single world market for goods, capital and labor.
As part of the formation of the sixth technological order, information technologies play an important role, without which it is difficult to imagine development modern production. Currently is topical issue transition from integrated automated production management systems to systems that would support all stages of the product life cycle from market research to operation and disposal of the finished product. This especially applies to the creation of complex high-tech products. CALS technologies will help solve this problem. (Continuous Acquisition and Life cycle Support) stands for continuous information support of the product life cycle.
The concept of CALS originated in the 1970s. in the US Department of Defense, when there was a need to improve management efficiency and reduce the costs of information interaction in the process of ordering, delivery and operation military equipment and weapons. The concept was a solution to the problem of creating a “single information space” that would ensure prompt exchange of data between the customer ( federal authorities), a manufacturer and consumer of military equipment. Initially, it was based on the ideology of the product life cycle, covering the production and operation phases. At that time, the main focus of CALS was paperless technology for interaction between organizations ordering, producing and operating military equipment.
2 Problems of forming a new technological structure in Russia
Currently, the reproductive system of the sixth technological structure is being formed, the formation and growth of which in the next two to three decades will determine the development of the world economy. In the most developed countries - the USA, Japan, the leading countries of Western Europe, which have a powerful scientific reserve and an active innovation system, the contours of the new way of life can already be recognized.
According to experts, the core of the new structure will be the so-called NBIC technologies: nano- and biotechnologies, including genetic engineering, new generation information and communication technologies (quantum, optical computers), and cognitive technologies. In addition to these, environmentally friendly energy is also considered radical innovation. The results of a number of studies, in particular those conducted in Japan
The transition to a new technological structure cannot be achieved without large-scale investments in the development of new technologies and modernization of the economy based on them. But the need for such investments usually significantly exceeds the capabilities of existing financial institutions. As a result, the role of the state, which has every opportunity to concentrate resources for mastering new technologies and taking investment risks, increases many times over. Therefore, it was quite logical that the governments of a number of countries (both economically developed and developing), despite the crisis, decided to increase spending on research and development.
The United States traditionally takes a leading position in the development and application of many new technologies, but a “gap” in the functional chain at the stage between the receipt of a promising development and its introduction into commercial circulation still exists. This, for example, was pointed out by the Council on Science and Technology of the Presidential Administration in its report “National Strategic Plan in the Field of Advanced Technologies”, announced on February 24, 2012. In order to bridge the gap, an extensive network will be created (based on the implementation of public-private partnership mechanisms) from 15 specialized institutes for production innovation. It is planned to allocate about $1 billion from the federal budget to finance this program.
The United States is taking all measures to maintain its leading position at the stage of formation and development of a new technological order. In Russia, unfortunately, the sixth technological structure has not yet been formed. According to experts, the share of technologies of the fifth mode in our country is about 10% (in the military-industrial complex and in the aerospace industry), the fourth - over 50%, and the third - about 30%.
At the same time, it should be noted that in recent years the Russian leadership has been paying great attention to innovation issues. Government spending on R&D and innovation programs is growing, “Strategy 2020” and “Strategy for Innovative Development” have been adopted, which, by the way, continue to be subject to fair criticism. Currently, almost all elements of the innovation infrastructure in the country have been created by analogy with the best Western models, but it continues to remain fragmented. The ineffectiveness of its work can be explained by the too rapid change of interests on the part of governing structures towards one or another institutional form, and the lack of proper consideration of the issue of how these institutions (technological platforms, innovation clusters, innovation elevators, etc.) can work in Russian practice, and the disinterest of business to invest in R&D.
In addition, a big problem for our country still remains the timely practical development of existing scientific and technical groundwork in key areas of the formation of a new technological structure, which is primarily explained by the lack of a domestic market for products own production. Moreover, the proposed innovative projects are often poorly combined with existing ones. production processes. Therefore, the results of Russian research and development are increasingly in demand abroad, and the function of commercializing scientific achievements is actually performed by foreign companies.
Unfortunately, the expert community still continues to debate about the paths of modernization and the transition to a post-industrial economy. There are two diametrically opposed points of view - either borrowing foreign technologies, or implementing a technological breakthrough in certain areas. However, the borrowing of Western technologies and the introduction of domestic developments is not possible without the presence of a highly developed industry in the country. Without expanding production to the domestic market, innovative development will never acquire the necessary scale and will not turn into a system. Neither the nanoindustry, nor biotechnology, nor a number of other innovative sectors will have dynamic development as long as there is no industrial policy in Russia that defines priorities and preferences for such projects.
IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGICAL STRUCTURES ON THE RF ECONOMY.
1 Prospects for the development of innovative technologies at enterprises in modern Russia
The main problems for Russia are the modernization of the industrial complex and the transition of the economy to an innovative path of development.
The set objectives of innovative development predetermine the need to develop a certain integrated indicator. In modern conditions, such a concept as a technological structure, characterized by a set of technologies that are used at a certain level of production and economic development, can claim its role. Scientific and technological progress is the main driving force behind the process of changing technological structures.
Russia lags significantly behind leading industrialized countries in terms of introducing new technologies. In order to develop high-tech production in the country, based on the use of innovative technologies, it is necessary to comprehensively form and expand the reproduction of technologies of the sixth technological order, which can become the technical and innovative basis of economic development for the long term. Innovative and technological re-equipment of industrial production sectors, development and implementation of advanced technologies at enterprises is the basis for the formation and implementation of an innovative development strategy. All this allows us to increase the competitiveness of the domestic economy and its long-term growth.
Over a long period of transformation of the industrial structure, under the influence of various external and internal factors, the technological component of Russia has changed at a low pace, which causes the current industrial complex to lag behind the level of industrialized countries.
Among the main shortcomings are the low innovative activity of enterprises in the industrial complex, the low rate of renewal of fixed capital, as well as the lack of investment to modernize enterprises of the industrial complex and increase their growth.
These factors directly determine the low share of the sixth technological order in the industrial structure, however, the existing achievements are an important prerequisite for the transition to an innovation-oriented economy based on the achievements of science and technology.
Thus, in terms of the level of development of one of the supporting areas of the fifth technological structure - aerospace technologies - Russia occupies one of the leading places in the world. In particular, the share Russian enterprises reaches a third in the space launch market. Russia also maintains its leading positions in the military aircraft market, although the share of revenues Russian companies in the global space technology market is about 2%.
As for the information sector in the Russian economy, we can say that it is developing quite dynamically. However, with the volume of the global software market at 400-500 billion dollars per year, domestic participation in it is slightly more than 200 million dollars, i.e. 0.04% At the same time, the areas of production of innovative products require the use of the most modern information systems, as the situation on the global market for high-tech products is developing towards a complete transition to computer technologies for design, manufacturing and marketing of products (CALS technologies). Domestic high-tech products that do not have modern computer support for their life cycle will significantly lag behind similar products manufactured abroad in the new system. electronic technologies. Therefore, the use of CALS technologies is necessary for the Russian economy to enter an innovative path of development, to increase the competitiveness of products produced by Russian enterprises. To increase competitiveness, Russian enterprises, especially those that create high-tech products, need to start developing and implementing projects for the use of CALS technologies that would fully cover the product life cycle.
And yet, Russian science has sufficient potential for the development of technologies of the sixth technological order. Knowledge has been gained and very promising achievements have been made, the timely practical development of which can ensure the leading position of Russian enterprises on the crest of a new long wave of economic growth.
Russian scientists have priority in the discovery of technologies for cloning organisms, stem cells and optoelectronic measurements. All this allows us to conclude that Russian scientific and technological potential has the necessary prerequisites for the rapid development of a new technological structure
2 Evolution of technological structure Russian economy
Conducted in intercountry quantitative analysis FER trajectories showed that the technical development of our economy followed the same trajectory as other countries. However, it was significantly slower. The relatively lower pace of technical development of the Soviet economy was explained by its reproducing technological diversity, which made it difficult to timely redistribute resources to the development of new technologies. By the beginning of the 90s. the simultaneous reproduction of the III, IV, and V technological structures, which simultaneously existed in the Soviet economic structure, stabilized.
The growth rate of industries of the fifth technical specification, starting from the 80s of the last century, in developed and newly industrialized countries reached 25-30% per year, 3-4 times higher than the growth rate of industrial production in general, and their contribution to GDP growth reached 80-90s 50%. This indicates that during that period the fifth technological order entered a phase of rapid growth, accompanied by a rapid increase in economic efficiency. For example, the growth rate of labor productivity in the private sector of the American economy increased accordingly from 0.80 in 1990 - 1995. up to 3.05% in 1995 - 2000. According to the identified patterns of long-term technical and economic development, it is possible to predict the further growth of the fifth technical level for about another decade, during which it will determine the development of the world economy. To measure the corresponding technological shifts, along with indicators of the production of goods representing the core of the fifth technological order, we used indicators of market saturation with communications, computer technology, electronics, as well as Internet density. Time series of relevant indicators for Russia and other countries were processed by the method of principal components, the first of which, in contrast to developed capitalist countries, where the V TU was rapidly expanding from the mid-80s, its growth rate in the USSR economy at that time fell sharply. There was a qualitative leap in the accumulation of imbalances caused by the reproducing technological diversity of the Soviet economy. The simultaneous expanded reproduction of three technological structures due to general resource limitations led in the mid-70s to a decrease in the growth rate of each of them, including the new (fifth), as well as the overall rate of economic growth and a sharp slowdown in progressive structural changes. As was shown in, the development of production of the fourth technological structure occurred in the USSR with a delay of three decades in comparison with the global trajectory of fuel and energy resources. The measurement results show a serious lag in our economy in mastering the production of the fifth technological structure even in the embryonic phase of its development.
At the same time, in terms of the level of development of one of the supporting areas of the fifth technical specification - aerospace technologies - Russia occupies one of the leading places in the world. In particular, the share of Russian companies in the space launch market reaches a third; leading positions are maintained in the military aircraft market. True, the share of income of Russian campaigns in the global space technology market is only about 2%.
At the current stage of growth of the fifth technological structure, which has reached the maturity phase, its spread in Russia occurs in supporting industries, while the core remains underdeveloped. In the core industries of the fifth technical specification, such as the production of microelectronics and electronic equipment, radio engineering, optoelectronics, civil aircraft construction, high-grade steel, composite and new materials, industrial equipment For knowledge-intensive industries, precision and electronic instrumentation, instruments and devices for communication systems and modern systems communications, computers and other computing components, compared with the level of 1990-1991. there was a significant decline,” states Academician Fedosov. It is very difficult to overcome the gap from the world level in these technologies, even with impressive investments.”
In the maturity phase of the dominant technical specification, overcoming the technological gap in the field of its key technologies requires enormous investments, while the acquisition of imported equipment allows you to quickly satisfy existing needs. Accordingly, this is what is happening in our country, as evidenced by the growth rates of the personal computer fleet, the number of Internet users, the volume of exports of software services and other indicators of the expansion of the use of technologies of the fifth technological order in its supporting industries at a rate of about 20-50% per year.
It follows from this that the expansion of the fifth technological structure in Russia is of a catch-up imitation nature. This is evidenced by the relative dynamics of the spread of its different components - the closer the technology is to the sphere of final consumption, the higher the rate of its spread. The rapid expansion of the supporting industries of the fifth technological order is taking place on an imported technological base, which deprives the key technologies of its core from adequate development. This means drawing the Russian economy into the trap of unequal exchange with the foreign core of this technological structure, in which the bulk of intellectual rent is generated.
Judging by the analysis of the spread of the new technological structure in different countries, its development in Russia is also lagging behind. But this lag occurs in the embryonic development phase and can be overcome in the growth phase. To do this, before a large-scale structural restructuring of the world economy, it is necessary to master the key production facilities of the core of the new technological structure, the further expansion of which will make it possible to obtain intellectual rent in on a global scale.
CONCLUSION
The main task for Russia today is the transition to an innovative path of development, building an innovative economy. To implement this transition, it is necessary to use the technologies of modern technological structures, as well as introduce new technologies in key areas of the post-industrial (sixth) technological structure.
Today, when the whole world is on the threshold of the sixth technological order, it is important to carry out deep comprehensive integration of technologies, as well as expand the technological base. In the current conditions, our country has the opportunity to abandon the inertial path of development, which is based on raw material exports, and develop technologies and industries of the sixth technological structure.
The study included an analysis of the functioning of industry due to the development of technological structures, as well as their interaction in the economic structure. It was found that the dynamics of the technological structure of the economy is nothing more than a process of development and a consistent change of technological structures. In addition, in the course of the development of production of the corresponding technological structure, when they are replaced, conditions are created in which structural restructuring of the economy occurs.
The features of the development of the sixth technological structure were considered, and its key technologies were highlighted. The main problems that Russia faces during the transition to a new technological structure have been identified. A way to solve these problems is proposed by introducing technologies of the sixth technological order, namely CALS technologies, which help manage the entire life cycle of a product (product).
The work proposed a model of CALS (IIP) technologies - a model of technologies for managing the entire life cycle of a product, the core of which is the integrated information environment (IIS). The necessity of having an information information system in an enterprise that sets itself the goal of increasing competitiveness and making business processes within the enterprise transparent and easy to manage is considered. During the research, the basic technologies and principles of building an integrated information environment of an enterprise were described, such as parallel engineering, analysis and reengineering of business processes, paperless data exchange.
Ultimately, the prospects for the development of innovative technologies in enterprises of modern Russia were assessed and recommendations were proposed for the development of an innovative economy.
Thus, in this graduation qualifying work The theory of technological structures was examined in detail, as well as the impact of changing technological structures on the restructuring of the economy. The technologies of the new sixth technological order and their role in the transition of the Russian economy to an innovative path of development were analyzed.
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The structure of most world powers is built on a market economy. This is not an ideal and rather unstable system. The economy is constantly rising and then undergoing recessions and depressions. This is a cyclical system, where each new cycle brings changes to the existing technological structure. Volumes translate into quality, and production is modernized, moving to the next level. All these aspects greatly affect the economy.
Technological structure is a certain type of production relations with a special system of economic and organizational activities aspects of the way of life.
“Technological structure” - the history of the term
The term was “born” thanks to the Russian scientist-economist Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev. At that time, he held an important post in the provisional government under the leadership of Kerensky, and later headed the famous Moscow Institute of Conjuncture.
He was studying the history of capitalism when he “reached” the idea of the existence of “waves” lasting 50-55 years - economic cycles, which are characterized by a specific level of development of the production mass (“technological structure”). For the most part, they end in a crisis in the world, similar to the recent one, which must necessarily be followed by a transition of production to a new, higher level.
Definition
Technological structure is a set of technologies characteristic of a certain production level. With the help of the development of the scientific and technological base, a transition occurs from older orders to new and progressive ones.
The way of life is characterized by:
- Core;
- The main factor;
- Organizational and economic aspect of control.
The concept of technological divisions implies arrangement, a clear order of organization of any activity.
Cyclic development
A market economy does not develop in a straight ascending line. It is characterized by changes and fluctuations in activity that occur periodically. Within the neoclassical movement, they are defined as cycles around an established long-term trend.
There are 2 opinions about the reasons for this:
- Scholastic - based on the fact that the factors leading to changes in the cycle are considered random. Depression is the result of the influence of internal and external shocks on the national economy.
- Deterministic - implies that cyclicality is caused by specific factors of decline or growth.
These two theories were developed in relation to a market economy, but they quite accurately describe the situation with the way of life.
Obvious reasons for cyclicality
Economics and technology are inextricably linked things. To understand the cyclicity in the second, you need to understand that in the first.
The national economy is the resource sector that leads to increased consumption. During its heyday or upon reaching its peak, it is able to completely cover the needs of its population. But already in times of crisis, most people cross the poverty threshold.
At its peak, investors' profits reach their limit, causing money to become concentrated in the economy. Over time, the standard of profit decreases. Some investors, not wanting to lose income (compared to the previous level), leave the country. This leads to decline. Low investment volumes gradually lead to a reduction in productive processes, and the solvency of the masses tends to decline. The crisis that has developed in one industry gradually spreads to the entire economy as a whole.
In addition to the decline in investment volumes associated with lower profit standards, the reason for the decline is the obsolescence of the technological base. This is what often leads to the peak form of the economy. The term “technological mode” is a similar concept to the “wave of innovation” (the latter is mainly used in foreign sources). It was first used in the work of a scientist on aspects of technological development.
Technological structure of Russia
According to the general theory, six technological segments are distinguished, where the latter is just beginning to develop. In Russia there is no point in talking about it yet.
On the territory of the country, the share of the fifth way of life accounts for only 10% of production, and even then in the most “profitable” industries (military industry, aerospace complex).
More than half of current technologies belong to the fourth clade, and about 1/3 belong to the third. Based on this, it is not difficult to understand all the obstacles and complexity facing Russian science. In just 10 years, she needs to bring the country to the number of states with the sixth technological structure. To do this, you will have to try and jump over the level - through the fifth stage.
Structure of the technological structure
The modern concept’s life cycle is divided into 3 stages of development and is characterized by a time period of 100 years.
The primary phase is the emergence and formation of the previous technological system in the economy. The second stage involves the restructuring of structures with an eye to new production trends corresponding to a period of approximately 50 years. The third phase is the withering away of the current system, during which a new one is born.
The life cycle of N. Kondratiev’s technological structure was slightly different. The theory was improved by S.Yu. Glazyev. The scientist identified 5 technological “booms”. It was he who divided the life cycle not into two phases, as Kondratiev assumed (ascending and declining waves), but into three, characterized by a century-long time period.
Between the 1st and 2nd stages, monopoly time is allocated, when individual enterprises develop a strong monopoly, grow, earning stable income high profits, as they fall under the protection of intellectual and industrial property laws.
Direct changes in technology are considered primary. They are formed in the depths of the economy of the old way. In fact, the emergence of unusual solutions – products – signifies the stage of formation of a technological system. At the same time, its slow development at first is explained by the monopoly situation of individual enterprises, which were the first to introduce innovations into business. They grow quickly and successfully, capturing the market and profit share, while being protected by laws.
Technological progress and growth are strongly linked. The waves lead to the creation of completely new industries and options for investing funds, their development, and also stimulate the overall economic situation. Since the Industrial Revolution, the system has changed five times already. Expert opinions regarding the main ones vary slightly.
The first technological structure
It lasted from 1785 to 1845. Its first stages are associated with invention spinning machine and the construction of a small textile factory.
The Industrial Revolution began because of primary goods, initially clothing. At the same time, maritime technologies were actively developing, which led to the formation of huge colonial empires (British, Spanish, French and others). Inland waterways are being built. Inventions make it possible to reduce costs for the production and transportation of goods.
Lasted from 1845 to 1900. It was caused by a surge in the global coal industry. Coal was used as the main source of energy.
The steam engine was also invented at this time. As a result, the railway transportation system was developed, new markets were formed and people gained access to a huge number of resources.
The steamship greatly influenced maritime transport, further expanding the possibilities of international trade. Cotton was produced in huge volumes, so there was a new impetus for the development of the textile industry.
Third technological order
Started in 1900 and ended in 1950. The main event of this time was the introduction of electricity.
This made it possible to use a number of new equipment and instruments in production and made it possible to develop urban transit systems (trams, metro).
Another important innovation was the internal combustion engine. The entire automotive industry began to be built on it. As a result, the mobility of people and goods increased.
The fourth technological order
Lasted from 1950 to 1990. After World War II, new materials were discovered, such as plastic, and the electronics industry (the development of televisions). There was a leap in the aviation industry thanks to the advent of jet engines. The mobility of transporting goods and people has become as simple as possible.
Fifth technological structure
From 1990 to the present day. The modern wave of the way of life is tied to the large-scale implementation of information developments. They completely changed the communication system ordinary people and business. Information technology has impacted production and logistics processes. Almost all industries use personal computers and other digital equipment in their work. E-commerce and telecommunications have become firmly established in everyday life.
Today the planet is on the verge of transition to the sixth technological order. It is just beginning to appear in developed countries such as the USA, China and Japan. The goal is the use of “high technologies”, for example bio and nano industries, genetic engineering and quantum technologies, thermonuclear energy.
Technological structure is one of the terms of the theory of scientific and technological progress (NTP).
The world owes the appearance of this concept to the scientist-economist Nikolai Kondratiev. He held a responsible post in the Provisional Government of Kerensky, and then headed the famous Moscow Institute of Market Studies. Studying the history of capitalism, Kondratiev came to the idea of the existence of large - 50-55 years long - economic cycles, which are characterized by a certain level of development of the productive forces (“technological structure, cycle”). The beginning of each cycle is characterized by economic growth, while the end is characterized by crises, followed by a stage of transition of productive forces to a higher level of development.
Based on this and other theories, Russian economists developed the concept of technological structures. In the early 1990s, Dmitry Lvov and Sergey Glazyev proposed the concept of “technological structure” as a set of technologies characteristic of a certain level of production development, and identified five already implemented structures. Each such cycle begins when a new set of innovations becomes available to manufacturers. The foundations of the subsequent technological structure arise, as a rule, during the heyday of the previous, and sometimes even the previous one.
The criterion for classifying production as a particular technological structure is the use in this production of technologies inherent in this structure, or technologies that ensure the production of products that, in their technical or physical and chemical characteristics, can correspond to the products of this structure.
The first technological structure (1770-1830) - The first industrial revolution. It was based on new technologies in the textile industry, the use of water energy, which led to the mechanization of labor and the beginning of mass production.
Leading countries: Great Britain, France, Belgium.
Second technological order (1830-1880) is also called the “Age of Steam”.
It was characterized by the accelerated development of railway and water transport based on steam engines, and the widespread introduction of steam engines into industrial production.
Leading countries:Great Britain, France, Belgium, Germany, USA.
Third technological order (1880-1930) was called the “Age of Steel” (Second Industrial Revolution).
It is based on the use of electrical energy in industrial production, the development of heavy mechanical engineering and the electrical industry based on the use of rolled steel. Many discoveries in the field of chemistry. Radio communication and telegraph were introduced. Automobile. Large firms, cartels, syndicates, and trusts appeared. Monopolies dominated the market. The concentration of banking and financial capital began.
Leading countries: Germany, USA, UK, France, Belgium, Switzerland, Netherlands.
The fourth technological order (1930-1970), the so-called “Era of Oil”.
It is characterized by the further development of energy using oil and petroleum products, gas, communications, and new synthetic materials. The period of mass production of cars, tractors, airplanes, various types of weapons, and consumer goods. Widespread use of computers and software products. Use of atomic energy for military and peaceful purposes. Conveyor technologies are becoming the basis for mass production. The formation of transnational and multinational companies that make direct investments in the markets of various countries.
Leading countries: USA, Western Europe, THE USSR
Fifth technological structure (1970-2010). - technologies used in the microelectronics industry, computing, fiber optic technology, software, telecommunications, robotics, gas production and processing, provision of information services; production based on the use of biotechnology, space technology, and the chemistry of new materials with specified properties.
There is a transition from disparate firms to a single network of large and small companies, connected by an electronic network based on the Internet, carrying out close interaction in the field of technology, product quality control, and innovation planning.
Today the world is on the threshold sixth technological order. Its contours are just beginning to take shape in the developed countries of the world.
VItechnological structure- these are nanotechnologies (nanoelectronics, molecular and nanophotonics, nanomaterials and nanostructured coatings, optical nanomaterials, nanoheterogeneous systems, nanobiotechnologies, nanosystem technology, nanoequipment), cellular technologies, technologies used in genetic engineering, hydrogen energy and controlled thermonuclear reactions, as well as for the creation artificial intelligence and global information networks - the synthesis of achievements in these areas should lead to the creation, for example, of a quantum computer, artificial intelligence and ultimately provide access to a fundamentally new level in the management systems of the state, society, and economy.
Forecast experts believe that if the current pace of technical and economic development is maintained, the sixth technological mode in the developed countries of the world will actually arrive in 2014 (!) - 2018, and will enter the maturity phase in the 2040s. At the same time, in 2020-2025 there will be a new scientific, technical and technological revolution, the basis of which will be developments that synthesize the achievements of the above basic areas. There are reasons for such predictions. As of 2010, the share of the productive forces of the fifth technological order in the most developed countries averaged 60%, the fourth - 20%, and the sixth - about 5%. It is obvious that the ratio of the share of technological structures in the country’s economy as a whole determines the degree of its development, internal and external stability. Unfortunately, the initiative in introducing the Sixth Way was definitely seized by the United States. Some advanced work in the post-Soviet countries cannot compete with this array.
Food for thought:
An interesting opinion is that of Vladimir Lepsky, chief researcher of the Russian Academy of Sciences, president of the Innovative Development Club, who believes: “Since you can’t catch up, you need to get ahead...”. He expressed the idea of a transition to the Seventh technological order: “The Sixth order implies the production of technologies, and the Seventh should be understood as the production of people capable of creating technologies, organizing living conditions and forms of consciousness.”
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Technological structure- ...a set of related industries that have a single technical level and develop synchronously. The change in the dominant technological structures in the economy predetermines the uneven progress of scientific and technological progress (author Lopatnikov, 2003)
Theory of periodic development cycles socio-economic formations has been substantiated by a significant number of researchers. Largest quantity supporters has a model developed in the 20s last century, Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratyev. He drew attention to the fact that in long-term dynamics one can observe the cyclical regularity of economic indicators. Kondratiev calculated that the phases of economic growth and phases of decline alternate with a periodicity of 45-60 years. Such fluctuations in the economy were called “Kondratieff cycles” by their followers. The theory has a significant number of opponents and critical reviews, but nevertheless provides the opportunity to substantiate the timing of global crises, as well as the periods and main drivers of active growth.
At the end of the 20th century, using new opportunities, the periods of “Kondratieff cycles” were clarified and a model of technological structures was developed. The key characteristics of the structures are clearly illustrated in the table
“Periodization of technological structures”
|
Way of life |
Main period |
Significant event |
Prevailing technologies |
|
1 |
1772-1825 |
The first industrial revolution. Creation of the “Water frame” spinning machine and textile mill in Cromford by R. Arkwright |
Water engine; Iron smelting; Iron processing; Construction of canals. |
|
2 |
1825-1875 |
The Age of Steam. Steam locomotive "Lokomotion No. 1", Stockton - Darlington Railway |
Steam engine; Coal industry; Mechanical engineering; Ferrous metallurgy; Machine tool industry. |
|
3 |
1875-1908 |
Age of Steel. Second industrial revolution. Creation of the Edgar Thomson Steel Works plant in Pittsburgh based on the Bessemer converter. |
Steel production; Heavy and electrical engineering; Shipbuilding; Heavy weapons; Inorganic chemistry; Standardization; Power lines. |
|
4 |
1908-1971 |
The Age of Oil. Introduction of a belt conveyor at G. Ford's enterprises, start of production of the Ford Model T. |
Automotive industry; Synthetic materials, Organic chemistry; Nuclear power; Electronics industry. |
|
5 |
1971-2006 |
eraI.T. Scientific and technical revolution. Creation of the Intel 4004 microprocessor, First use of the name "Silicon Valley" |
Computer Engineering; Space technology; Telecommunications; Robotics; Artificial intelligence; Biotechnology. |
|
6 |
?? 2007 - 2040 ?? |
Nanotechnology. Intel announced the creation of a processor with structural elements less than 45 nm. |
Technologies virtual reality; Nanoelectronics; Molecular and nanophotonics; Nanobiotechnology Nanosystem technology. |
There is an opinion that Russia can gain significant advantages by “jumping” from the 4th Technological Structure to the 6th Technological Structure at once, without spending resources on catching up with developed countries in the technologies of the 5th Technological Structure.
According to experts, the economies of Russia and the United States are represented by technologies of various structures in the following proportion:
|
Way of life |
III |
IV |
V |
VI |
|
30% |
50% |
10% |
- |
|
|
USA |
- |
20% |
60% |
5% |
Prepared by SAVEUR Consulting consultant I.V. Yanov based on published articles and speeches by participants of the TECHNOPROM 2013 forum
