Project risk management technology. Management of risks. project risks Project risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, will have a positive outcome. Identification of risk factors and main types of project risks

Project Risk Management

1. Concept and essence of project risks

When analyzing industrial investments, the problem of uncertainty of costs, returns, risk measurement and its impact on investment results arises. It is necessary to distinguish between the concepts of “risk” and “uncertainty”.

Uncertainty presupposes the presence of factors in which the results of an action are not deterministic, and the degree of possible influence of these factors on the results is unknown; this is incompleteness or inaccuracy of information about the conditions for the implementation of the project. Uncertainty factors are divided into external and internal. External factors - legislation, market reaction to manufactured products, actions of competitors; internal - the competence of the enterprise personnel, the error in determining the characteristics of the project, etc.

Risk is the potential, numerically measurable possibility of loss. Project risk is the degree of danger to the successful implementation of the project. The concept of risk characterizes the uncertainty associated with the possibility of adverse situations and consequences arising during the implementation of the project, while cases of objective and subjective probabilities are distinguished.

The concepts of “uncertainty” and “randomness” should also not be confused. The concept of “randomness” is narrower; it is used when there is large statistics and for each of the possible combinations of costs and results of the project, the probabilities of their implementation are determined. The concept of “uncertainty” is broader; in addition to “probabilistic”, there may be other types of uncertainty. Risk occurs when some action can lead to several mutually exclusive outcomes with a known distribution of their probabilities. If such a distribution is unknown, then the corresponding situation is considered as uncertainty.

Uncertainty is not the absence of any information about the conditions of the project, but the incompleteness and inaccuracy of the available information. Uncertainty factors must be taken into account when preparing initial information for project development, when assessing the results of its implementation, and when adjusting implementation based on incoming new information.

The basis of the risk of real investment of an enterprise is the so-called project risks, i.e. risks associated with the implementation of real investment projects enterprises. In the system of indicators for evaluating such projects, the level of risk ranks third in importance, complementing such indicators as the volume of investment costs and the level of net investment profit (net cash flow).

The risk of a real investment project (project risk) is understood as the probability of adverse financial consequences in the form of loss of expected income in situations of uncertainty in its implementation.

The risk of a real investment project is one of the most complex concepts related to the investment activities of the enterprise. This risk has the following main features:

Integrated character. The risk of a real investment project is a collective concept that integrates numerous types of specific investment risks. Only on the basis of an assessment of these specific types of risk can the overall level of risk of an investment project be determined.

Objectivity of manifestation. Project risk is an objective phenomenon in the functioning of any enterprise that makes real investments. It accompanies the implementation of almost all types of real investment projects, no matter in what forms they are implemented. Although a number of parameters of project risk depend on subjective management decisions reflected in the process of preparing specific real investment projects, its objective nature remains unchanged.

Difference in type structure at different stages of implementation of a real investment project. As a rule, each stage of the process of implementing a real investment project has its own specific types of project risks. Therefore, the assessment of the total level of project risk is usually carried out at individual stages of the investment process.

High level connection with commercial risk. Investment income from a completed project is formed, as a rule, in the post-investment phase, i.e. in the course of the operating activities of the enterprise. Accordingly, the formation of a positive cash flow for an investment project occurs directly in the area commodity market, i.e. directly related to effectiveness and risk commercial activities enterprises. This determines the high degree of relationship between project risk and the commercial risk of the enterprise.

Highly dependent on duration life cycle project, the time factor has a significant impact on the overall level of project risk, determining various uncertainty of consequences. For short-term investment projects, the determinism of external and internal factors makes it possible to select parameters for their implementation that generate the lowest level of risk. At the same time, for long-term investment projects, the indeterminism of many factors and, accordingly, the uncertainty of the results of their implementation increases. The dependence of the overall level of project risk on the duration of the project life cycle is direct.

High level of variability in the level of risk for similar projects. The level of project risk inherent in the implementation of even the same type of real investment projects of the same enterprise is not constant. It varies significantly under the influence of numerous objective and subjective factors that are in constant dynamics. Therefore, each real investment project requires an individual assessment of the level of risk in the specific conditions of its implementation.

Lack of sufficient information base to assess the level of risk. The uniqueness of the parameters of each real investment project and the conditions for its implementation does not allow the enterprise to generate a sufficient amount of information that allows the use of economic-statistical, analog and some other methods for assessing the level of project risk in a wide range. The search for the necessary information to calculate this indicator is associated with additional financial costs for the preparation and evaluation of alternative real investment projects.

Lack of reliable market indicators used to assess the level of risk. While in the process of financial investment an enterprise can use a system of stock market indicators (such indicators have been developed in each country and their dynamics are reflected over a fairly long period), there are no such indicators for segments of the investment market associated with real investment. This reduces the possibility of assessing market factors in calculating the level of project risks.

Subjectivity of assessment. Despite the objective nature of project risk as an economic phenomenon, its main assessment indicator - the level of risk - is subjective. This subjectivity, i.e. the unequal assessment of this objective phenomenon at specific enterprises is determined by the difference in the completeness and reliability of the information base used, the qualifications of investment managers, their experience in the field of risk management and other factors.

Thus, investments in any project involve a certain risk, which is reflected in the interest rate: the project may fail, i.e. be unfulfilled, ineffective, or less effective than expected. The risk is associated with the fact that the income from the project is a random and not a deterministic value (i.e., unknown at the time of making the decision to invest), as well as the amount of losses. When analyzing an investment project, you should take into account risk factors, identify as many types of risk as possible and try to minimize the overall risk of the project.

2. Classification of project risks

1.Negative (loss, damage, loss).

2.Zero.

.Positive (gain, benefit, profit).

Depending on the event, risks can be divided into two large groups: pure and speculative. Pure risks mean obtaining a negative or zero result. Speculative risks mean obtaining both positive and negative results.

The risks accompanying investment activities form an extensive risk portfolio of the enterprise, which is defined by the general concept - investment risk. It seems possible to propose the following classification of investment risks (Fig. 1):

Figure 1. - Classification of investment risks

The subject of the analysis of this work is investment project risk (the risk associated with the implementation of a real investment project) associated with investing in innovative activity, which can be defined as the likelihood of adverse financial consequences in the form of loss of all or part of the expected investment income from the implementation of a specific innovative project in a situation of uncertainty of the conditions for its implementation.

Project risks of an enterprise are characterized by great diversity and in order to implement effective management They are classified according to the following main characteristics:

By type. This classification feature of project risks is the main parameter for their differentiation in the management process. The characteristics of a specific type of risk simultaneously give an idea of ​​the factor generating it, which makes it possible to “link” the assessment of the degree of probability of occurrence and possible financial losses for this type of project risk to the dynamics of the corresponding factor. The species diversity of project risks in their classification system is presented in the widest range. It should be noted that the emergence of new design and construction technologies, the use of new investment goods and other innovative factors will, accordingly, give rise to new types of project risks. IN modern conditions The main types of project risks include the following:

· The risk of reducing the financial stability (or the risk of disturbing the balance of financial development) of the enterprise. This risk is generated by the imperfection of the structure of invested capital (excessive share of borrowed funds used), which creates an imbalance in the positive and negative cash flows of the enterprise for the projects being implemented. As part of project risks in terms of the degree of danger (generating the threat of bankruptcy of an enterprise), this type of risk plays a leading role.

· The risk of insolvency (or the risk of unbalanced liquidity) of the enterprise. This risk is generated by a decrease in the level of liquidity of current assets, which creates an imbalance of positive and negative cash flows for an investment project over time. In terms of its financial consequences, this type of risk is also among the most dangerous.

· Design risk. This risk is generated by imperfect preparation of a business plan and design work for the proposed investment object, associated with a lack of information about the external investment environment, incorrect assessment of the parameters of internal investment potential, the use of outdated equipment and technology, which affects the indicators of its future profitability.

· Construction risk. This risk is generated by the selection of insufficiently qualified contractors, the use of outdated construction technologies and materials, as well as other reasons that cause a significant exceeding of the stipulated time frame for construction and installation work on an investment project.

· Marketing risk. It characterizes the possibility of a significant reduction in the volume of product sales envisaged by the investment project, the price level and other factors leading to a decrease in operating income and profit at the project operation stage.

· Project financing risk. This type of risk is associated with an insufficient total amount of investment resources from individual sources; an increase in the weighted average cost of capital attracted for investment; imperfection of the structure of sources of formation of borrowed financial resources.

· Inflation risk. In an inflationary economy, it stands out as an independent type of project risk. This type of risk is characterized by the possibility of depreciation of the real value of capital, as well as the expected income from the implementation of an investment project in conditions of inflation. Since this type of risk in modern conditions is of a constant nature and accompanies almost all financial transactions for the implementation of a real investment project of an enterprise, constant attention is paid to it in investment management.

· Interest rate risk. It consists of an unexpected increase in the interest rate on the financial market, leading to a decrease in the level of net profit for the project. The reason for the emergence of this type of financial risk (if we eliminate the previously discussed inflation component) is a change in the investment market conditions under the influence government regulation, increase or decrease in the supply of free cash resources and other factors.

· Tax risk. This type of project risk has a number of manifestations: the likelihood of introducing new types of taxes and fees for the implementation of certain aspects of investment activity; the possibility of increasing the level of rates of existing taxes and fees; changing the terms and conditions for making certain tax payments; probability of cancellation of existing tax benefits in the field of real investment of the enterprise. Being unpredictable for the enterprise (this is evidenced by modern domestic fiscal policy), it has a significant impact on the results of the project.

· Structural operational risk. This type of risk is generated by ineffective financing of current costs at the project operation stage, causing a high proportion of fixed costs in their total amount. High ratio operating leverage in case of unfavorable changes in the commodity market conditions and a decrease in the gross volume of positive cash flow from operating activities, it generates a significantly higher rate of decline in the amount of net cash flow for the investment project.

· Crime risk. In the sphere of investment activities of enterprises, it manifests itself in the form of its partners declaring fictitious bankruptcy, forgery of documents ensuring the misappropriation by third parties of monetary and other assets related to the implementation of the project, theft of certain types of assets by their own personnel, and others. Significant financial losses that enterprises incur in connection with this modern stage when implementing an investment project, they determine the identification of criminogenic risk as an independent type of project risks.

· Other types of risks. The group of other project risks is quite extensive; in terms of the likelihood of occurrence or the level of financial losses, it is not as significant for enterprises as those discussed above. These include the risks of natural disasters and other similar “force majeure risks”, which can lead not only to the loss of expected income, but also part of the enterprise’s assets (fixed assets, inventories), the risk of untimely implementation of settlement and cash transactions project financing (related to the unsuccessful choice of a servicing commercial bank) and others.

According to the stages of project implementation, the following groups of project risks are distinguished:

· Project risks of the pre-investment stage. These risks are associated with the choice of an investment idea, the preparation of business plans recommended for the use of investment goods, and the validity of assessing the main performance indicators of the project.

· Project risks of the investment stage. This group includes the risks of untimely implementation of construction and installation work on the project, ineffective control over the quality of this work; ineffective financing of the project at the stages of its construction; low resource support for work performed.

· Design work post-investment (operational) stage. This group of risks is associated with untimely production reaching the planned design capacity, insufficient supply of production with the necessary raw materials and supplies, irregular supply of raw materials and materials, low qualifications of operating personnel; shortcomings in marketing policy and so on.

Based on the complexity of the study, the following risk groups are distinguished:

· Simple project risk. It characterizes a type of project risk that is not divided into its individual subtypes. An example of a simple project risk is inflation risk.

· Complex financial risk. It characterizes the type of project risk, which consists of a complex of its subtypes under consideration. An example of a complex project risk is the risk of the investment stage of a project.

Based on their sources, the following groups of project risks are distinguished:

· External, systematic or market risk (all these terms define this risk as independent of the activities of the enterprise). This type of risk is typical for all participants in investment activities and all types of real investment operations. It occurs when individual stages change economic cycle, changes in investment market conditions and in a number of other similar cases that the enterprise cannot influence in the course of its activities. This group of risks may include inflation risk, interest rate risk, and tax risk.

· Internal, unsystematic or specific risk (all terms define this project risk as depending on the activities of a particular enterprise). It may be associated with unqualified investment management, ineffective asset and capital structure, excessive commitment to risky (aggressive) investment operations with high rates of return, underestimation of business partners and other similar factors, the negative consequences of which can be largely prevented through effective project management risks.

The division of project risks into systematic and non-systematic is one of the important initial premises of the theory of risk management.

According to financial consequences, all risks are divided into the following groups:

· A risk that entails only economic losses. With this type of risk, the financial consequences can only be negative (loss of income or capital).

· A risk that entails lost profits. It characterizes a situation when an enterprise, due to existing objective and subjective reasons, cannot carry out a planned investment operation (for example, if its credit rating is reduced, the enterprise cannot obtain the necessary loan to generate investment resources).

· A risk that entails both economic losses and additional income. In the economic literature, this type of financial risk is often called “speculative”, since it is associated with the implementation of speculative (aggressive) investment operations (for example, the risk of implementing a real investment project, the profitability of which in the operational stage may be lower or higher than the calculated level).

Based on the nature of their manifestation over time, two groups of project risks are distinguished:

· Constant project risk. It is typical for the entire period of the investment operation and is associated with the action of constant factors. An example of such investment risk is interest rate risk.

· Temporary project risk. It characterizes risk that is permanent in nature, arising only at certain stages of the investment project. An example of this type of financial risk is the risk of insolvency of an effectively functioning enterprise.

Based on the level of financial losses, project risks are divided into the following groups:

· Acceptable project risk. It characterizes the risk for which financial losses do not exceed the estimated amount of profit for the ongoing investment project.

· Critical project risk. It characterizes the risk for which financial losses do not exceed the estimated amount of gross income for the ongoing investment project.

· Catastrophic project risk. It characterizes the risk for which financial losses are determined by the partial or complete loss of equity capital (this type of risk may be accompanied by the loss of borrowed capital).

If foreseeable, project risks are divided into the following two groups:

· Forecasted project risk. It characterizes those types of risks that are associated with the cyclical development of the economy, changing stages of financial market conditions, predictable development of competition, etc. The predictability of project risks is relative, since forecasting with a 100% result excludes the phenomenon under consideration from the category of risks. An example of predicted project risks are inflation risk, interest rate risk and some other types of them (naturally, we are talking about forecasting risk in the short term).

· Unpredictable project risk. It characterizes types of project risks characterized by complete unpredictability of manifestation. An example of such risks are the risks of force majeure, tax risk and some others.

According to this classification criterion, project risks are also divided into regulated and unregulated within the enterprise.

If insurance is possible, project risks are also divided into two groups:

· Insurable project risk. These include risks that can be transferred through external insurance to the relevant insurance organizations (in accordance with the range of project risks accepted by them for insurance).

· Uninsurable project risk. These include those types for which there is no supply of appropriate insurance products on the insurance market.

It should be noted that the above classifications cannot be comprehensive. They are determined by the purpose formulated by the classification criterion. Draw a clear line between certain types project risks is quite difficult. A number of risks are interconnected (these risks are correlated), changes in one of them cause changes in the other. In such cases, the analyst should use common sense and his or her understanding of the problem.

3. Analysis and assessment of project risks

Risk analysis (in investment design) is a process of studying the external and internal environment of the investment process, carried out with the aim of identifying risks, assessing their parameters, as well as predicting the state of an enterprise operating under risk conditions after a certain point in time by assessing key performance indicators as random quantities The results of the analysis are used to make decisions and to develop measures to protect against possible losses.

Project risk analysis can be divided into two mutually complementary types: qualitative and quantitative.

Qualitative analysis can be relatively simple and the main task- identify risk factors, work stages during which risk arises, i.e. identify potential risk areas and then identify all possible risks.

Qualitative analysis involves identifying the risks inherent in the project, describing and grouping them. Typically, specific risks are identified that are directly related to the implementation of the project (project), as well as force majeure, management, and legal. For the convenience of further tracking, project risks should be taken into account by stages: initial (pre-investment), investment (construction) and operational. The result of the qualitative risk analysis stage should be a project risk map.

The description of risks at the stage of qualitative analysis does not provide information about possible losses or their likelihood; it serves as the basis for quantitative risk analysis.

The following methods of qualitative risk analysis exist:

· expert assessment method - a set of procedures aimed at identifying, ranking and qualitatively assessing probable risks for a project based on the expert opinions of people with significant experience in project activities;

· SWOT analysis - allows you to clearly contrast the strengths and weak sides the project, its opportunities and threats based on a qualitative risk assessment;

· spiral (“rose”) of risks - illustrated ranking of risks based on qualitative assessments of risk factors;

· method of analogies or conservative forecasts - a study of accumulated experience on projects in order to calculate the probabilities of losses.

It is necessary to note one important specific feature of the qualitative analysis of project risks, which consists in its quantitative result: the process of conducting a qualitative analysis of project risks must include not only a purely descriptive, “inventory” aspect of determining certain specific types of risks of this project, identification of possible causes of occurrence, analysis of the expected consequences of their implementation and proposals for minimizing identified risks, but also a cost assessment of all these risk-minimizing measures for a specific project.

Conducting a quantitative analysis of project risks is a continuation of qualitative research and assumes the presence of a certain basic option (expected profitability, cash flow calculations for the project, equipment operating time, etc.), which can change as a result of the implementation of each of the noted risks. The task of quantitative analysis is to numerically measure the degree of influence of risky factors of the project on the behavior of the efficiency criteria of the entire investment project. Thus, quantitative risk assessment is a numerical determination of the impact of individual project risks.

The quantitative risk analysis process includes the following stages:

· creating a predictive model;

· identification of risk variables;

· determining the probability distribution of selected variables and determining the range of possible values ​​for each of them;

· establishing the presence or absence of correlations among risk variables;

· model runs (determining the characteristics of the resulting variables as random variables);

· analysis of results (construction of risk levels).

Risk variables are those that are critical to the viability of the project, i.e. even small deviations from its intended value have a negative impact on the project. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is used to select variables. Sensitivity analysis measures the response of project results to changes in a particular project variable. The disadvantage of this analysis is that it does not take into account whether the expected changes in the value of the analyzed variables are realistic or unrealistic. In order for the results obtained from a sensitivity analysis to be meaningful, the effect of uncertainty surrounding the variables being tested must be taken into account.

For example, a small deviation in the purchase price of a certain type of equipment per year Xhas a very large impact on project revenue, but the likelihood of this variation may be small if the supplier is bound by certain contract terms. Therefore, the risk associated with this variable is negligible.

To assess the degree of acceptability of project risk, risk zones should be identified depending on the expected magnitude of losses.

Table 1. Characteristics of risk areas

Project risk zoneCharacteristicsRisk-free zoneGuaranteed financial results in the amount of the estimated amount of profit Acceptable risk zone Possible financial losses in the amount of the estimated amount of profit Critical risk zone Possible financial losses in the amount of the estimated amount of income Catastrophic risk zone Possible financial losses in the amount of equity capital

The accepted assumptions are to a certain extent controversial and are not always valid for all types of risks, but in general they fairly accurately reflect the most general patterns changes in project risk and make it possible to construct a distribution curve for the probability of loss of profit, which is called the risk curve (Fig. 1.4).

The main thing in the quantitative assessment of project risk is the ability to construct a risk curve and determine zones and indicators of acceptable, critical and catastrophic risks.

Figure 2. - Risk curve

Currently, the most common risk analysis methods are:

1) statistical;

2)expert assessments;

)sensitivity analysis;

)assessment of financial stability and solvency;

)assessing the feasibility of costs;

)analysis of the consequences of risk accumulations;

)method of using analogues;

)combined method.

The statistical method consists of studying the statistics of losses and profits that occurred at a given or similar enterprise in order to determine the likelihood of an event and establish the amount of risk. Probability means the possibility of obtaining a certain result. For example, the probability of successful promotion of a new product on the market during the year is 3/4, and failure is 1/4. The magnitude, or degree of risk, is measured by two indicators: the average expected value and the variability (variability) of the possible result. The average expected value is associated with the uncertainty of the situation. It is expressed as a weighted average of all possible outcomes E(x), where is the probability of each outcome Aused as a frequency, or weight, corresponding to a value X.

Probabilistic risk assessment has been sufficiently developed mathematically, but relying only on mathematical calculations when analyzing project risks is not always sufficient, since the accuracy of the calculations largely depends on the initial information.

The method of expert assessments differs from the statistical method only in the method of collecting information to construct a risk curve. This method involves collecting and studying assessments made by various specialists ( of this enterprise) concerning the probability of occurrence of different levels of losses. Expert assessment is the opinion of experts on a specific issue identified using a special technique.

A variation of the expert method is the Delphi method. It is characterized by anonymity and controlled feedback. The anonymity of the commission members is ensured by their physical separation, which does not give them the opportunity to discuss answers to the questions posed. The purpose of this division is to avoid the “traps” of group decision-making and the dominance of the leader’s opinion. After processing the result through controlled feedback, the generalized result is communicated to each member of the commission. The main purpose of such an action is to allow one to become familiar with the assessments of other members of the commission without being subject to pressure due to knowledge of who specifically gave this or that assessment. After this, the assessment can be repeated.

Project sensitivity analysis consists of the following steps:

· selection of a key indicator relative to which sensitivity is assessed (net present value NPV, internal rate of return IRR and so on.);

· choice of factors (inflation level, state of the economy, etc.);

· calculation of the values ​​of the key indicator at different stages of the project (purchase of raw materials, production, sales, transportation, capital construction and so on.);

Sensitivity analysis is based on a sequential unit change in the variables tested for riskiness. At each step, only one of the variables changes its value by the predicted percentage (±5%, ±10%, ±15%, etc.), which leads to a recalculation of the final values ​​for the project. Sequences of costs and revenues generated in this way financial resources make it possible to determine fund flows Money for each moment (or period of time), i.e. determine performance indicators. Diagrams are constructed that reflect the dependence of the selected resulting indicators on the value of the initial parameters. By comparing the resulting diagrams with each other, it is possible to determine the so-called key indicators that have the greatest impact on the assessment of the project’s profitability.

Sensitivity analysis involves the following procedures:

1)A project justification model is formed in the form of a set of budgets using MS Excel, Project Expertany other specialized software.

2)Consider a model such as a “black box”, a system whose input is the initial data of the project (for example, the price of the product, the volume of expected sales, the discount rate, the loan rate, the expected inflation rate, etc.), and the output is “ black box" only one parameter is "removed". Most often they serve the meaning NPV

)The justification for the project is calculated several times using the generated model for different values ​​of the initial data. In this case, a set of initial data is formed as follows: all parameters of the initial data, except one, are left constant without changes, one parameter is considered variable, generating several of its values ​​at once (usually five) with a certain step of relative changes. Changes, for example, can be: - 20%; - 10%; 0%; + 10%; + 20%. The model is calculated several times with different changes in the variable parameter.

)Calculate the relative growth rates of the obtained net present value values ​​in relation to NPVbasic option.

)Compare the obtained values ​​of specific growth NPVwith a specific increase in the variable parameter.

)The procedure set out in paragraphs. 3-5 are repeated for other initial parameters, taking each of them separately as variables and fixing the others.

One of the disadvantages of sensitivity analysis is the assumption that each input parameter changes independently of the others. Scenario analysis helps correct this situation when a group of interdependent indicators changes at once.

Sensitivity analysis has a serious drawback - it is not comprehensive and does not clarify the likelihood of alternative projects being implemented. The sensitivity analysis of an investment project is based on an analysis of changes in one factor, which is a significant limitation of this method. Overcoming this problem is carried out within the framework of the statistical test method and the scenario method, which are a development of the sensitivity analysis technique.

Method of analogies. When analyzing the risk of a new project, data on the consequences of adverse risk factors on other projects can be very useful. When using analogues, databases on the risk of similar projects are used, research work design and survey institutions, surveys of project managers. The data obtained in this way is processed to identify dependencies in completed projects in order to take into account potential risks when implementing new projects.

Some caution should be exercised when using the analogy method. Even in the most correct and well-known cases of unsuccessful completion of projects, it is very difficult to create the preconditions for future analysis, i.e. prepare a comprehensive and realistic set of possible project failure scenarios. The fact is that most negative consequences are characterized by certain features.

Simulation modeling (Monte Carlo method). Recently, a method of statistical testing has become popular - the Monte Carlo method. Simulation modeling is a targeted series of multivariate studies performed on a computer using mathematical models. This direction corresponds to the main idea system analysis- a combination of human capabilities as a carrier of values, a generator of ideas for decision-making with formal methods that provide the possibility of using computers. Its advantage is the ability to analyze and evaluate different “scenarios” for project implementation and take into account different risk factors within one approach. Different types of projects have different vulnerability to risks, which is revealed through modeling.

These parameters are used in simulation modeling, the algorithm of which can be presented in the form of the sequence of steps outlined below:

1)As in the previous case, a project justification model is formed in the form of a set of budgets, using Project Expertor other specialized software.

2)Similar to the corresponding step in the sensitivity analysis algorithm in simulation modeling, a model such as a “black box” is also considered, a system whose input is supplied with the initial project data (for example, product price, expected sales volume, discount interest rate, loan rate, expected level of inflation, etc.). At the output of the black box, only one parameter is “removed”. Most often they serve the meaning NPV, which generates a project with such initial data.

)A variable factor is selected and, if necessary, the rest are fixed, but unlike the previous method, half of the model is calculated as follows. The model is “bombarded” with random numbers with a distribution law characteristic of the behavior of the original variable parameter with other fixed values. A series of random numbers can form sequences consisting of several thousand or even tens of thousands of values ​​simulating changes in a variable parameter, while in a sensitivity analysis such a series consisted of only five values.

)The resulting values ​​of the resulting parameter are processed (for example, NPV) in order to determine the behavior characteristics of the resulting quantity. The asymmetry and kurtosis of the resulting parameter are determined.

)The corresponding laws of behavior of the initial parameters are compared with the law of behavior of the resulting quantity. Changes in the distribution parameters of the resulting parameter in relation to the behavior parameters of the initial factor will indicate the significance, level of risk and tendency to change the resulting project parameter.

)Appropriate conclusions are drawn and a risk factor management plan is drawn up.

The disadvantage of this method is that it uses probabilistic characteristics for assessments and conclusions, which is not very convenient for direct application and does not satisfy project managers. However, despite these shortcomings, this method makes it possible to identify the risk associated with those projects for which the decision made will not change. It should be noted that in general this method is quite labor-intensive, because it involves cyclically repeating the same calculations according to the model many thousands of times in the process of substituting a series of random numbers as the initial data, which is why the method received its second name - the Monte method. Carlo. Practice shows that the use of Monte Carlo simulation is justified, first of all, for large and expensive projects.

Scenario method. Scenario methods include the following steps:

· description of the entire set of possible conditions for the implementation of the project in the form of appropriate scenarios or models, taking into account a system of restrictions on the values ​​of basic technical, economic, etc. project parameters;

· transformation of initial information about uncertainty factors into information about the probabilities of individual implementation conditions and corresponding performance indicators or the intervals of their change;

· determination of performance indicators for the project as a whole, taking into account the uncertainty of the conditions for its implementation.

As a result of the scenario analysis, the impact on the indicators is determined economic efficiency investment project of simultaneous changes in all other project variables characterizing its cash flows. The advantage of this method is that the deviations of the parameters are calculated taking into account their interdependencies (correlation).

When building models, it is necessary to actively collect and formalize expert assessments, especially with regard to production and technological risks. The main advantage of using expert assessments is the ability to use the experience of experts in the process of project analysis and taking into account the influence of various qualitative factors.

As a result, it is advisable to construct at least three scenarios: pessimistic, optimistic and the most probable (realistic or average). The main problem in the practical use of the scenario approach is the need to build a model of the investment project and identify the relationship between variables.

The disadvantages of the scenario approach include:

· the need for significant qualitative research into the project model, i.e. creating several models corresponding to each scenario, including extensive preparatory work on the selection and analytical processing of information;

· insufficient uncertainty, blurred boundaries of scenarios. The correctness of their construction depends on the quality of the model construction and initial information, which significantly reduces their predictive value. When constructing estimates of variable values ​​for each scenario, some voluntarism is allowed;

· The effect of a limited number of possible combinations of variables is that the number of scenarios to be worked out in detail is limited, as is the number of variables to be varied, otherwise it is possible to obtain an excessively large amount of information, the predictive power and practical value of which is greatly reduced.

Scenario The project risk examination method has the following features that can be considered as its advantages:

· taking into account the relationship between variables and the influence of this relationship on the values ​​of integral indicators;

· construction of various project implementation options;

In conclusion, it should be noted that the choice of specific methods for assessing the risks of real investment is determined by a number of factors:

1.Type of investment risk.

2.The completeness and reliability of the information base generated to assess the level of probability of various investment risks.

.The level of qualifications of investment managers performing the assessment.

.The technical and software equipment of investment managers, the ability to use modern computer technologies to conduct such an assessment.

.The ability to involve qualified experts in assessing complex investment risks, etc.

4. Methods for reducing project risks

Understanding the nature of project risk and its quantitative assessment do not always allow for effective management of real investments. In this case, methods and methods of directly influencing the level of risk in order to minimize it, increase the safety and financial stability of the project organization acquire special importance.

Actions to reduce project risk are carried out in two directions:

1.Avoidance of possible risks.

2.Reduce exposure to risk.

The first direction is to try to avoid any possible risk for the company. The decision to refuse risk can be made at the decision-making stage, as well as by refusing some type of activity in which the enterprise is already involved. Avoiding possible risks includes refusing to use high volumes borrowed capital (avoidance of financial risk is achieved), refusal of excessive use of investment assets in low-liquidity forms (avoidance of the risk of decreased liquidity). This direction of reducing the level of project risk is the simplest and most radical. It allows you to completely avoid possible losses, but also does not provide the opportunity to receive the amount of profit that is associated with risky activities.

In order to reduce the impact of risks, there are two ways:

1.Take measures to ensure the fulfillment of contractual obligations at the stage of concluding contracts.

2.Exercise control over management decisions during project implementation.

On the first path, there are several options:

·insurance;

· security (in the case of a loan agreement) in the form of a pledge, guarantee, surety, penalty or retention of the debtor’s property;

· a step-by-step breakdown of the project appropriation approval process;

· diversification of investments.

Options for management decisions in order to reduce project risk can be carried out using the following methods:

1.Reserving funds to cover unforeseen expenses.

2.Loan restructuring.

Let's look at some of the ways to reduce project risk.

One of the most important ways to reduce project risk is diversification, for example, distributing the enterprise's efforts between activities whose results are not directly related to each other. Any investment decision related to a specific project requires the person making this decision to consider the project in conjunction with other projects and with the existing activities of the enterprise. To reduce risk, it is advisable to plan the production of goods and services for which demand changes in opposite directions.

The distribution of project risk between project participants is effective way its reduction, it is based on the partial transfer of risks to partners in individual investment situations. It is most logical to make responsible the participant who has the ability to more accurately and efficiently calculate and control risk. Risk distribution is taken into account during development financial plan project and is documented in contract documents.

A possible way to reduce risk is to insure it, which essentially consists of transferring certain risks to an insurance company. When making a decision on external risk insurance, it is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of this method of risk reduction, taking into account the following parameters:

1.The probability of an insured event occurring for a given type of project risk.

2.The degree of insurance protection for risk, determined by the insurance coefficient (the ratio of the insured amount to the size of the insurance valuation of the property).

.The size of the insurance tariff in comparison with its average size in the insurance market for this type of insurance.

.The amount of the insurance premium and the procedure for its payment during the insurance period, etc.

Foreign insurance practice uses full insurance of investment projects. The conditions of Russian reality make it possible so far to only partially insure project risks: buildings, equipment, personnel, and some extreme situations.

Type of costs Change in unforeseen expenses, % Costs / duration of work of Russian contractors + 20 Costs / duration of work of foreign contractors + 10 Increase in direct production costs+ 20 Decrease in production - 20 Increase in interest on loans + 20

In addition to reserving for force majeure circumstances, it is necessary to create a system of reserves at the enterprise for optimal control cash flows. It's about on the formation of a reserve fund, a fund for repaying bad receivables, maintaining an optimal level of inventories and the standard balance of cash and cash equivalents. Reserving funds is, in essence, self-insurance (internal insurance) of the enterprise. It should be borne in mind that insurance reserves in all their forms, although they allow you to quickly compensate for losses incurred, however, “freeze” the use of a fairly significant amount of investment resources. As a result, the efficiency of using the enterprise's own capital decreases and its dependence on external sources of financing increases.

Limitation as a way to reduce risks involves the enterprise establishing a maximum permissible amount of funds for performing certain operations (or project stages), in the event of the loss of which this will not significantly affect financial condition enterprises. Limitation is used by banks when issuing loans, industrial enterprises- when selling goods on credit, determining the amount of capital investment, determining the amount of borrowed funds, as well as in other situations.

Acquiring additional information plays an important role in reducing project risks. The purpose of such an acquisition is to clarify some project parameters, increase the level of reliability and reliability of the initial information, which will reduce the likelihood of making an ineffective decision. Ways to obtain additional information include purchasing it from other organizations, conducting an additional experiment, etc. Complete and reliable information is a special kind of commodity for which you have to pay, but this expense is recouped by receiving significant benefits from a less risky investment.

Concluding the review of the main aspects of the theory of project risk management, it is necessary to note the following. Identification of project risks, their accounting and analysis is part of common system ensuring the economic reliability of an economic entity.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the following main aspects should be noted.

Risk in a market economy accompanies everyone management decision. This especially applies to investment decisions, the consequences of which affect the activities of the enterprise over a long period of time.

Bibliography

1.Afonasova, A.M. Design analysis. Lectures [ Electronic resource] / A.M. Afonasova. Access mode: #"justify">2. Blank, I.A. Investment management [Text]: training course/ I.A. Form. - 2nd ed., rev. and additional - K.: Elga-N, Nika-Center, 2007. - 448 p.

.Kalmykova, T.S. Investment analysis[Text] / T.S. Kalmykova. - M.: INFRA-M, 2009. - 240 p.

.Kovalev V.V. Introduction to financial management[Text] / V.V. Kovalev. - M.: Finance and Statistics, 2008. - 786 p.: ill.

.Osipova, L.M. Economic assessment investments [Text]: guidelines/ L.M. Osipova. - Kemerovo: Printing house of KuzGTU, 2011. - 40 p.

.Kharlamenko, E.V. Quantitative Analysis risks of an investment project [Text] // E.V. Kharlamenko. - Russian entrepreneurship. - 2009. - No. 5 (1).

.Tsarev, V.V. Economic efficiency assessment [Text] / V.V. Tsarev. - St. Petersburg: Peter, 2007. - 464 p.

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Risks arise from the uncertainties that exist in every project. Risks can be “known” - those that are identified, assessed, and for which planning is possible. “Unknown” risks are those that are not identified and cannot be predicted. Although the specific risks and conditions under which they arise are not defined, project managers know from past experience that most risks can be anticipated.

When implementing projects that have a high degree of uncertainty in such elements as goals and technologies for achieving them, many companies pay attention to the development and application of corporate risk management methods. These methods take into account both the specifics of projects and corporate management methods.

The American Project Management Institute (PMI), which develops and publishes standards in the field of project management, has significantly revised the sections regulating risk management procedures. IN new version The PMBOK (expected to be adopted in 2000) outlines six risk management procedures. In this article we provide a brief overview of risk management procedures (without commentary).

Management of risks- these are processes associated with identification, risk analysis and decision-making, which include maximizing the positive and minimizing the negative consequences of the occurrence of risk events.

The project risk management process typically includes the following procedures:

1. - selection of approaches and planning of project risk management activities.
2. Risk identification- identifying risks that could affect the project and documenting their characteristics.
3. Qualitative risk assessment- qualitative analysis of risks and conditions of their occurrence in order to determine their impact on the success of the project.
4. Quantification- quantitative analysis of the probability of occurrence and the impact of risk consequences on the project.
5. - determination of procedures and methods to mitigate the negative consequences of risk events and use possible benefits.
6. Risk monitoring and control- monitoring risks, identifying remaining risks, implementing the project risk management plan and assessing the effectiveness of actions to minimize risks.

All of these procedures interact with each other, as well as with other procedures. Each procedure is performed at least once in each project. Although the procedures presented here are considered discrete elements with clearly defined characteristics, in practice they may overlap and interact.

Risk management planning

Risk management planning- the decision-making process for applying and planning risk management for a specific project. This process may include decisions about the organization, staffing project risk management procedures, selection of the preferred methodology, data sources for risk identification, time interval for situation analysis. It is important to plan risk management appropriate to both the level and type of risk and the importance of the project to the organization.

Risk identification

Risk identification Determines which risks may affect the project and documents the characteristics of those risks. Risk identification will not be effective unless it is carried out regularly throughout the project.

Risk identification should involve as many participants as possible: project managers, customers, users, independent specialists.

Risk identification is an iterative process. Initially, risk identification may be performed by part of the project managers or by a group of risk analysts. Identification can then be handled by the core group of project managers. To form an objective assessment, independent specialists can participate in the final stage of the process. Possible responses can be determined during the risk identification process.

Qualitative risk assessment

Qualitative risk assessment- the process of presenting a qualitative analysis of risk identification and identification of risks requiring rapid response. This risk assessment determines the severity of the risk and selects a response method. The availability of accompanying information makes it easier to prioritize different risk categories.

Qualitative risk assessment is an assessment of the conditions for the occurrence of risks and determination of their impact on the project using standard methods and means. The use of these tools helps to partially avoid the uncertainties that often occur in a project. Risks must be continually reassessed throughout the project life cycle.

Quantitative risk assessment

Quantitative risk assessment determines the likelihood of risks occurring and the impact of risk consequences on the project, which helps the project management team make correct decisions and avoid uncertainties.

Quantitative risk assessment allows you to determine:

• probability of achieving ultimate goal project;
• the degree of risk impact on the project and the amount of unforeseen costs and materials that may be needed;
• risks that require prompt response and greater attention, as well as the impact of their consequences on the project;
• actual costs, estimated completion dates.

Quantitative risk assessment often accompanies qualitative assessment and also requires a risk identification process. Quantitative and quantitative risk assessment can be used separately or together, depending on the time and budget available and the need for quantitative or qualitative risk assessment.

Risk response planning

Risk response planning is the development of methods and technologies to reduce the negative impact of risks on a project.

Takes responsibility for the effectiveness of protecting the project from exposure to risks. Planning involves identifying and categorizing each risk. The effectiveness of the response design will directly determine whether the impact of the risk on the project will be positive or negative.

The response planning strategy must be tailored to the types of risks, cost-benefit of resources, and timing. Issues discussed during meetings must be adequate to the tasks at each stage of the project, and agreed upon by all members of the project management team. Typically, multiple risk response strategies are required.

Monitoring and control

Monitoring and control monitor the identification of risks, determine residual risks, ensure implementation of the risk plan and evaluate its effectiveness, taking into account risk reduction. Risk indicators associated with the implementation of the conditions for fulfilling the plan are recorded. Monitoring and control accompanies the process of implementing the project.

Quality project control provides information to help make effective decisions to prevent risks. To provide complete information about project performance, communication between all project managers is necessary.

The purpose of monitoring and control is to find out whether:

1. The risk response system was implemented as planned.
2. The response is sufficiently effective or changes are necessary.
3. Risks have changed compared to the previous value.
4. Onset of risk influence.
5. The necessary measures have been taken.
6. Exposure to risks turned out to be planned or an accidental result.

Control may entail choosing alternative strategies, making adjustments, and redesigning the project to achieve the baseline. There must be constant interaction between project managers and the risk group, and all changes and phenomena must be recorded. Project progress reports should be generated regularly.

There are no projects without risks. Increasing project complexity leads to an increase in the number and scale of associated risks. When we think about project management, we think less about risk assessment, which is an intermediate activity, and more about how to develop a response plan to achieve risk reduction. Project risk management has its own specific features, which will be discussed in this article.

Concept of project risk

By risk in project activities we mean a probable event, as a result of which the subject who made the decision loses the opportunity to achieve the planned results of the project or its individual parameters that have a time, quantitative and cost estimate. Risk is characterized by certain sources or causes and has consequences, i.e. influences the results of the project. The key words in the definition are:

• probability;
• event;
• subject;
• solution;
• losses.

Project risks are always associated with uncertainty. And in this regard, we should be concerned with two points: the degree of uncertainty and its causes. Uncertainty is proposed to be understood as the state of objective conditions in which the project is accepted for execution, which does not allow one to foresee the consequences of decisions due to the inaccuracy and incompleteness of the available information. The degree of uncertainty is significant because we can only manage those risks for which we have at least some meaningful information.

If there is no information, then these types of risks are called unknown, and a special reserve has to be laid down for them without implementing management procedures. The example of the risk of a sudden change in tax legislation is quite suitable for this situation. For threats for which at least minimal information is available, a response plan can already be developed, and risk minimization becomes possible. The following shows a small diagram of the boundaries of risk management from the perspective of its certainty.

Scheme of risk management boundaries from a position of certainty

The next point for understanding the specifics of project risk is the dynamism of the risk map, which changes as the project task is implemented. Pay attention to the diagram below. At the beginning of a project, the likelihood of threats is high, but possible losses are characterized by a low level. But by the end of all work on the project, the amount of losses increases significantly, and the likelihood of threats decreases. Taking this feature into account, two conclusions follow.

1. It is advisable to carry out risk analysis several times during the project implementation. In this case, the risk map is transformed.
2. Risk minimization occurs most optimally at the concept development stage or at the time of development project documentation. This option is much cheaper than at the stage of direct implementation.

Model of the dynamics of risk probability and loss magnitude

Let's look at a small example. If at the very beginning of a project a threat to the quality of its product is identified due to an expensive material that is not suitable for technical specifications, then the costs associated with the correction will be negligible. Changes to the project plan due to material changes will result in a slight delay in schedule. If possible negative consequences are revealed at the stage of order execution, the damage may be significant, and it will not be possible to reduce losses.

Elements of the concept of project risk management

Modern project risk management methodology assumes an active approach to working with the sources and consequences of identified threats and dangers, in contrast to the recent past, when the response was passive. Risk management should be understood as a set of interrelated processes based on the identification, analysis of risks, and the development of measures to reduce the level of negative consequences arising from the occurrence of risk events. The PMBOK identifies six risk management processes. A visual diagram of the sequence of these processes is presented below.

Scheme of project risk management processes according to PMBOK

The main procedures for this type of management are:

• identification;
• grade;
• response planning;
• monitoring and control.

Identification involves identifying risks based on identified factors of their occurrence, documenting their parameters. Qualitative and quantitative analysis of the causes of occurrence and the likelihood of negative consequences form the assessment procedure. Planning a response to identified factors involves developing measures to reduce the adverse impact on the results and parameters of the project. Project activities are characterized by dynamism, unique events and associated risks. Therefore, their monitoring and control occupy a special place in the management system and are carried out throughout the life cycle of the project task. Risk management ensures the following.

1. Project participants’ perception of uncertainties and threats in the environment of its implementation, their sources and probable negative events due to the manifestation of risks.
2. Finding and expanding opportunities for an effective and efficient solution to the design problem, taking into account the identified uncertainty.
3. Development of ways to reduce project risks.
4. Finalization of project plans taking into account identified risks and a set of measures to reduce them.

Project risks are subject to control by the project manager. All participants in the project task are involved in this work to varying degrees. Programming and mathematical apparatus, methods of expert assessments, interviewing, discussion, brainstorming, etc. are used. Before management begins, an information context is formed, including the identification of external and internal conditions in which tasks will be solved. External conditions include political, economic, legal, social, technological, environmental, competitive and other aspects. Possible internal conditions consist of:

• characteristics and goals of the project itself;
• characteristics, structure and goals of the company;
• corporate standards and regulations;
• information about resource support for the project.

Risk management planning

The first process among the general procedures for working with project threats is risk management planning. It allows you to clarify the selected methods, tools and level of management organization in relation to a specific project. The PMI Institute assigns an important role to this process for the purposes of communications with all interested parties. Below is the planning process diagram found in the PMBOK Guide.

Risk management planning data flow diagram. Source: PMBOK Guide (Fifth Edition)

The risk management plan is a document that includes a certain composition of sections. Let's look at an example of the detailed content of such a plan.

1. General provisions.
2. Main characteristics of the company.
3. Statutory characteristics of the project.
4. Goals and objectives of risk management.
5. Methodological section. The methodology includes methods, analysis and evaluation tools, and sources of information that are recommended to be used to manage project risks. Methods and tools are described by stages project implementation.
6. Organizational section. It includes the distribution of roles of project team members, establishing responsibility for the implementation of the procedures provided for in the plan, and the composition of relationships with other components of project management.
7. Budget section. Rules for the formation and enforcement of the risk management budget are included.
8. Regulatory section, including timing, frequency, duration of risk management operations, forms and composition of control documents.
9. Section of metrology (evaluation and recalculation). Evaluation principles, rules for recalculating parameters and reference scales are determined in advance and serve as auxiliary tools for qualitative and quantitative analysis.
10. Risk thresholds. Taking into account the importance and novelty of the project implementation, acceptable values ​​of risk parameters are established at the level of the project and individual threats.
11. The reporting section is devoted to issues of frequency, forms, procedure for filling out, submitting and reviewing reports on this project management block.
12. Monitoring section and documentation support project risk management.
13. Templates section for risk management.

Identification of project risks

The next process of the control unit under consideration is risk identification. During its implementation, project risks are identified and documented. The result should be a list of risks, ranked by their degree of danger. The identification of factors should involve not only team members, but also all project participants. The PMBOK Guide describes this process as follows.

Extract from Section 11 of the PMBOK Guide.

Identification is made based on the results of a study of all identified factors. It should not be forgotten that not all factors are identified and subject to control. During the development and refinement of project plans, new possible sources of threats and hazards often arise. The trend is that as a project progresses toward completion, the number of likely risk events increases. Good identification depends on having a detailed risk classification at hand. One of the useful classification features is their level of controllability.

Classification of risks by level of controllability

Classification of project risks based on the sign of controllability is useful in determining which uncontrollable factors reserves should be made for. Unfortunately, controllability of risks often does not guarantee success in managing them, so other methods of division are also important. It is worth noting that there is no universal classification. This is due to the fact that all projects are unique and are accompanied by a lot of specific risks. In addition, it is often difficult to draw boundaries between similar types of risks.

Typical classification features are:

• sources;
• consequences;
• ways to reduce threats.

The first sign is actively used precisely at the identification stage. The last two are useful when analyzing risk factors. Let us consider the types of project risks in connection with the uniqueness of their factors.

1. Specific threats from the perspective of a local project. For example, risks tied to a specific technology being introduced.
2. Specific threats from the perspective of the type of project implementation. Factors for construction, innovation, IT projects, etc. are specific.
3. General risks for any projects. You can give an example of mismatched plans or a low level of budget elaboration.

For identification, the correct formulation of the risk is important; the source, consequences and the risk itself must not be confused. The wording should be two-part and include an indication of the source from which the risk arises and the threatening event itself. For example, “the risk of funding failure due to discrepancies in the project budget.” As noted, types of project risks are often divided according to their main sources. The following is an example of the most common version of this classification.

Classification of project risks by sources

Analysis and assessment of project risks

Risk analysis and assessment are carried out with the aim of transforming information obtained during identification into information that allows making responsible decisions. During the qualitative analysis process, a series of expert assessments are made of possible adverse consequences due to the identified factors. In the process of quantitative analysis, the values ​​of quantitative indicators of the probability of the occurrence of threatening events are determined and clarified. Quantitative analysis is much more labor-intensive, but also more accurate. It requires quality input data, the use of advanced mathematical models and higher competence from personnel.

There are situations when qualitative analytical research is sufficient. At the exit analytical work The project manager intends to receive:

• list of risks grouped by priority;
• a list of positions requiring additional analysis;
• assessing the riskiness of the project as a whole.

There are expert assessments of the likelihood of adverse events occurring and the level of impact on the project. The main output of the qualitative analysis process is a list of ranked risks with completed assessments or a completed risk map. Both probabilities and influences are broken down into categorical groups within a given range of values. As a result of the assessments, various special matrices are constructed, in the cells of which the results of the product of the probability value and the impact level are placed. The results obtained are divided into segments, which serve as the basis for ranking threats. An example of such a probability/impact matrix can be found in the PMBOK Guide and is presented below.

Example of a probability and impact matrix.

A year before the 2008 economic crisis, one Russian financial magazine Together with a company engaged in corporate finance management, we held a business plan competition. After statistical processing of the submitted work, it turned out that the most vulnerable part of it was the analysis of project risks. This oversight made it possible to make investment mistakes that resulted in significant potential losses. Most of the competitive business plans indicated the existence of potential dangers in the implementation of the project, but no analysis and assessment of risks were carried out.

There are no risk-free projects. Increasing the complexity of a project always directly proportionally increases the scale and number of associated risks. However, assessing the risks of project implementation is, although mandatory, an intermediate process, the result of which is a clear plan for reducing the degree of risk and a response plan in the event of a potential threat.

Possibility is usually understood as the likelihood of unfavorable situations occurring that potentially lead to a deterioration in final and intermediate indicators. Moreover, the event itself may have varying degrees of uncertainty and various causes.

Risk management includes not only the statement of uncertainty and analysis of project risks, but also a set of methods for influencing risk factors to neutralize damage. The methods that are combined into a system of planning, tracking (monitoring) and correction (adjustment) include:

• Development of a risk management strategy.
• Compensation methods, which include monitoring the external socio-economic and legal environment in order to predict it, as well as the formation of a system of project reserves.
• Localization methods that are used in high-risk projects in a multi-project system. Such localization involves the creation of special divisions that are engaged in the implementation of particularly risky projects.
• Distribution methods using different parameters(time, composition of participants, etc.).
• Methods for eliminating risks associated with replacing unreliable partners, introducing a guarantor into the process, and insuring risks. Sometimes avoiding risks means abandoning a project.

Uncertain events that occur are not always accompanied by a negative effect. For example, the departure of one team member from the project may lead to the appearance of a more qualified and efficient worker. However, uncertain events with a positive (and “zero”) effect are not always taken into account when assessing project risk. The nature of uncertainty is associated with incurring losses due to internal and external circumstances.

Project specifics are also determined by the dynamism of the risk map with changes in riskiness as we move from one project task to another:

• In the initial stages of a project, there is a high probability of threats with a low level of possible losses.
• At the final stages, the risk of threats being carried out decreases, but the magnitude of potential losses increases.

Taking this into account, it is advisable to carry out project risk analysis repeatedly, transforming the risk map as necessary. Moreover, this process is of particular importance at the stage of forming the concept and carrying out design work - creating design documentation. For example, if an error in the choice of material is discovered in the early stages, this will result in missed deadlines. If this error is discovered during execution, the damage will be much more significant.

Risk assessment by the project team and investors is done based on the importance of the project, its specifics, the availability of sufficient resources for implementation and financing of the likely consequences of the risks. The degree of acceptable risk values ​​depends on the planned level of profitability, the volume and reliability of investments, the familiarity of the project to the company, the complexity of the business model and other factors.

The sequence of activities for assessing and managing project risks fits into a certain management concept, which includes a number of mandatory elements.

Project risk management concept: main elements

Until recently, the norm in risk management methodology was to be passive. In its modern presentation, this methodology involves active work with the sources of threats and the consequences of detected risks. Risk management is an interconnected process, and not only the behavior of each stage is important, but also their sequence. In general, this project management subsystem has the following structure:

• Identification of risks and their identification.
• Analysis of project risks and their assessment.
• Selecting effective methods based on risks.
• The use of these methods in a risk situation and responding directly to the event.
• Development of measures to reduce risks.
• Monitoring the decline and developing solutions.

Since today in project management most managers are guided by the format proposed by the PMBOK framework, it is more appropriate to take a closer look at the 6 risk management processes proposed in PMBOK:

1. Risk management planning.
2. Identification of factors influencing risks. At the same stage, their parameters are documented.
3. Qualitative assessment.
4. Quantitative assessment.
5. Response planning.
6. Monitoring and control.

After which the cycle resumes again from points 2 to 6, since during the course of the project the context of the project’s existence may change.

Project risks are managed by the project manager, but all project participants are involved in solving this problem to one degree or another (for example, during brainstorming, discussion, expert assessments, etc.). This is also important because the information context involves identifying not only external risks (economic, political, legal, technological, environmental, etc.), but also internal ones.

In the future, to illustrate the implementation of the main elements of the management concept, examples from the project will be given, which have the following conditional characteristics. A jewelry factory that brings new gold chains to the market purchases imported equipment for their production, which is installed in premises that have yet to be built. The price of gold as the main raw material is set based on the results of trading on the London Metal Exchange in US dollars. The planned sales volume is 15 kg of products per month, of which 4.5 kg (30%) is expected to be sold through our own chain of stores, and 10.5 kg (70%) through dealers. Sales are subject to seasonal changes with intensification in December and attenuation in April. The optimal period for launching equipment is the eve of the December sales peak. The project implementation period is five years. The main indicator of project efficiency is NPV (net present value), which in the calculation plans is equal to $1,765.

Risk management planning

The entry point to the list of procedures for dealing with project threats is risk management planning. Since the same PMBOK is a framework, and it does not give recommendations for working with a specific project, at this stage the methods and tools that are appropriate to apply in a real starting project and in a real context are clarified. In expanded form, the risk management plan as a document contains the following sections:

According to PMI Institute recommendations, this stage is necessary for communication between all interested parties. At the same time, the company may already have established and proven risk management methods, which, due to their familiarity, are preferable.

Identification of risk factors and main types of project risks

The whole variety of uncertain events that can become risk factors is quite difficult to reduce and describe, so anyone and everyone is involved in this. That is, not only the project manager and the team participate in the process of identifying factors, but also customers, sponsors, investors, users, and specially invited experts.

Moreover, identification is an iterative process (repeated throughout the entire life cycle) and combined with continuous analysis. During the course of a project, new risks are often discovered or information about them is updated. Therefore, the composition of the expert commission may change depending on the specific iteration, the characteristics of which, in turn, change depending on the specific risk situation and type of threat. These types of risks can be classified according to different criteria, but the most practical are considered to be the criteria of controllability, sources of risk, its consequences, and ways to reduce threats.

Not all threats are controlled, and some are also poorly classified as definitely controlled. It is advisable to allocate resource reserves in advance for a number of definitely uncontrollable factors.

In general, external risks are less well controlled than internal ones, and predictable ones are better controlled than unpredictable ones:

• Certainly uncontrollable external risks include interference government agencies, natural phenomena and disasters, deliberate sabotage.
• External predictable but poorly controllable ones include social, marketing, inflation and currency.
• Partially controlled internal risks associated with the organization of the project, availability of financing and other resources.
• Controlled risks include internal technical risks (related to technology) and contractual and legal risks (patent, licensing, etc.).

The threat source criterion is especially important at the initial stages of identification. Criteria for consequences and methods for eliminating threats - at the stage of factor analysis. At the same time, it is important not only to identify, but also to correctly formulate the risk factor so as not to confuse the source of the risk with its consequences. Therefore, the formulation of the risk itself should be two-part: “the source of the risk + the threatening event.”

To classify by risk sources, correct standardized pairs are made:

• Technical factors – emergency situations and erroneous forecast as a type of risk.
• Financial factors – unstable currency correlations.
• Political – coups and revolutions, religious and cultural threats.
• Social – strikes, terrorist threats.
• Environmental – man-made disasters, etc.

But below, using the example already mentioned, not all are considered, but only the main types of controlled or partially controlled project risks.

Marketing risk

This threat is associated with a loss of profit, which is caused by a decrease in product price or sales volume due to consumer non-acceptance of the new product or an overestimation of the actual sales volume. For investment projects this risk is of particular importance.

The risk is called marketing, as it often arises due to shortcomings of marketers:

• insufficient study of consumer preferences,
• incorrect positioning of the product,
• errors in assessing market competitiveness,
• incorrect pricing,
• incorrect way to promote a product, etc.

In the example with the sale of gold chains, an error in the planned distribution of sales volume in the ratio of 30% to 70% leads to the fact that selling the product through dealers in 80% of cases reduces the amount of profit received, since dealers purchase goods from the supplier at a higher price. low prices than the retail consumer. An external factor in this example could be a situation in which the activity of visiting new stores in shopping centers depends on the “promotion” and popularity of the shopping centers. Ways to reduce risk in this situation would be a detailed preliminary analysis and a lease agreement with the introduction of a number of popularizing parameters: convenient parking, transport communication systems, additional entertainment centers on the territory, etc.

General economic risks

Poorly controlled external risks associated with changes in the exchange rate, inflation processes, an increase in the number of industry competitors, etc. pose a threat not only to the current project, but also to the company as a whole. In the case of the described example, the main one from this group is currency risk. If the final price of a product in rubles for the consumer does not change, but the purchase is made in dollars, then when the dollar exchange rate increases, there is an actual shortfall in profit in relation to the calculated values. It is potentially possible that after selling the chain in rubles and transferring funds into dollars, for which gold is purchased, the actual amount of proceeds will be less than the amount necessary to at least renew the commodity supply.

Risks associated with project management

These are not only threats associated with management errors, but also external risks, the causes of which may be, for example, changes in customs legislation and cargo delays. Violation of the project schedule increases its payback period by both lengthening the calendar period and lost benefits. In the example of gold chains, the delay is especially dangerous, since the product has a pronounced seasonality - after the peak of December, it will be much more difficult to sell gold jewelry. This also includes the risk of budget increases.

In practice project management exist simple ways determining the real line (and cost) of the project. For example, PERT analysis, in which three terms (or costs) are specified: optimistic (X), pessimistic (Y) and most realistic (Z). The expected values ​​are entered into the formula: (X +4x Z + Y) /6 = planned period (or cost). In this scheme, the coefficients (4 and 6) are the result of a large array of statistical data, but this proven formula only works if all three estimates can be correctly justified.

When collaborating with external contractors, to minimize risks, it is agreed special conditions. So, in the example of the launch of a new jewelry line, it is necessary to build new cases, the cost of which is determined at 500 thousand dollars, after which it is planned to receive total profit in the amount of 120 thousand dollars per month with a profitability of 25%. If due to the fault of the contractor there is a delay of a month, then the lost profit is easily calculated (120x25% = 30 thousand) and can be included in the contract as compensation for missed deadlines. This compensation can also be “tied” to the cost of construction. Then 30 thousand dollars will be 6% of the cost of work of 500 thousand.

The result of this entire stage should be a hierarchical (ranked by degree of danger and magnitude) list of risks.

That is, the description must provide the ability to compare the relative impact on the progress of the project of all identified risks. Identification is made based on the totality of all studies and risk factors identified on their basis.

Project risk analysis transforms the information collected during identification into guidance that allows responsible decisions to be made even at the planning stage. In some cases, qualitative analysis is sufficient. The result of such an analysis should be a description of the uncertainties (and their causes) inherent in the project. To facilitate the procedure for identifying risks, special logical maps are used for analysis:

• In Group " Market and consumers» questions are collected about the presence of unmet consumer needs, about market development trends and whether the market will develop at all.
• In Group " Competitors» the ability of competitors to influence the situation is assessed.
• In Group " Company capabilities» questions are asked about marketing and sales competence, etc.

As a result of collecting responses, potential risks associated with failure to achieve the sales plan are identified due to:

• incorrect assessment of consumer needs and market size,
• lack of a sufficient product promotion system,
• underestimating the capabilities of competitors.

As a result, a ranked list of risks is formed with a hierarchy based on the importance of threats and the magnitude of potential losses. So, in the example with jewelry, the main group of risks included, in addition to failure to achieve the number of sales and a decrease in financial volume due to a lower price, also a decrease in the rate of profit due to an increase in prices for raw materials (gold).

Quantitative risk analysis

Quantitative analysis is used to determine how the most significant risk factors can affect the effectiveness of the project. For example, it is analyzed whether a small (10-50%) change in sales volume will entail significant losses in profit, making the project unprofitable, or whether the project will remain profitable even if, for example, only half of the planned sales volume is sold. There are a number of techniques for performing quantitative analysis.

Sensitivity Analysis

This standard method consists of substituting various hypothetical values ​​of critical parameters into the financial model of the project and then calculating them. In the example of launching a jewelry line, the critical parameters are the physical volume of sales, cost and selling price. An assumption is made about reducing these parameters by 10-50% and increasing them by 10-40%. After this, the “threshold” beyond which the project will not pay off is calculated mathematically.

The degree of influence of critical factors on the final efficiency can be demonstrated on a graph, which reflects the primary influence on the result of the sales price, then the cost of production, and then the physical volume of sales.

But the significance of the price change factor does not yet indicate the significance of the risk, since the probability of price fluctuation may be low. In order to determine this probability, a “probability tree” is formed step by step:

The total performance risk (NPV) is the sum of the products of the final probability and the value of the risk for each deviation. The risk of changes in the sales price reduces the NPV of the project from the example by 6.63 thousand dollars: 1700 x 3% + 1123 x 9% + 559 x 18% - 550 x 18% - 1092 x 9% - 1626 x 3%. But after recalculating two other critical factors, it turned out that the most dangerous threat should be considered the risk of a decrease in the physical volume of sales (its expected value was $202 thousand). The second most dangerous risk in the example was taken by the risk of changes in cost with an expected value of $123 thousand.

This analysis allows you to simultaneously measure the magnitude of the risk of several critical factors. Based on the results of the sensitivity analysis, 2-3 factors are selected that have a greater influence on the outcome of the project than others. Then, as a rule, 3 development scenarios are considered:

Here, too, relying on expert substantiated assessments, the probability of its implementation is determined for each scenario. The numerical data for each scenario is plugged into an actual financial model of the project, resulting in one comprehensive performance assessment. In the example with the jewelry project, the expected NPV value is equal to 1572 thousand dollars (-1637 x 20% + 3390 x 30% + 1765 x 50%).

Simulation modeling (Monte Carlo method)

In cases where experts can name not exact estimates of parameters, but estimated fluctuation intervals, the Monte Carlo method is used. It is more often used when assessing currency risks (within a year), macroeconomic threats, risks of interest rate fluctuations, etc. Calculations should simulate random market processes, so special software or Excel functionality is used for analysis.

Application of the statistical rule of “three sigma” suggests that with a probability of 99.7% NPV will fall within the range of 1725 thousand dollars ± (3 x 142), that is, with a high probability the result of the project in the example will be positive.

Anti-risk measures: planning responses

The result of the risk analysis can be a risk map with visualization of the ratio of probability and degree of impact on indicators. It facilitates the regulated procedure for threat mitigation planning.

The four main types of response include:

1. Acceptance, which presupposes a conscious willingness to take risks with the transfer of efforts not to prevention, but to eliminating the consequences.
2. Minimization that works for controlled risks.
3. Transfer-insurance, when there is a third party ready to take on the risk and its consequences.
4. Avoidance, which involves the complete elimination of sources of risk. A passive and irrational form of avoidance is the refusal of individual elements of the project.

Modern software tools are designed for different levels of project management. For a large company with a large project portfolio, risk management automation tools are often included directly in an integrated ERP-class package. Suitable for small and medium businesses latest versions MS Project, which provides the ability to configure a risk management block for the processes of identification, classification, as well as assessment and qualitative analysis of risks with the construction of a probability matrix. Simulation modeling can be carried out using the Project Expert and Alt-Invest programs.

Projects are carried out in conditions of uncertainty.

Under uncertainty refers to the incompleteness or inaccuracy of information about the prerequisites, conditions or consequences of the project, including the associated costs and results.

Its causes may be: ignorance, accident and opposition.

Uncertainty leads to risks and corresponding consequences.

Risk(as the dictionary defines this concept) is the possibility or likelihood of danger, loss or other adverse consequences.

The project management standard RMBOK and other standards give slightly different definitions.

The risk is:

– an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, will have a positive or negative impact on the project;

– a combination of the likelihood (qualitative or quantitative) that the project will experience undesirable events, such as cost overruns, schedule delays, safety failures, or failure to achieve a required technological breakthrough;

– consequences (impacts or problems) if an undesirable event occurs;

– the possibility of creating a loss.

The main risk characteristics are as follows:

♦ the risk is situational (there is no consensus on how to reduce or avoid the risk);

♦ risks are interconnected (one risk event may lead to others);

♦ the degree of risk is relative (the more significant the final result, the greater the risk is acceptable);

♦ the significance of the risk is subjective:

a) individual attitude to risk;

b) attitude towards risk corporate level;

♦ risk is a function of time (risk always refers to the future), time affects risk assessment;

♦ risk can be controlled.

There are two types of risk – static and dynamic. Static risk corresponds to “pure” uncertainty, therefore it is called “pure risk”, and dynamic risk– “speculative uncertainty” and has another name “speculative risk”.

Pure risk is the probability of irreversible loss of assets due to irreparable damage to an economic entity caused by unforeseen changes in numerous factors of the external and internal environment. Speculative risk is associated with the occurrence of unforeseen changes in the value of the object under consideration under the influence of environmental factors, as well as inadequate management decisions.

According to the area of ​​risk there are:

♦ project risks: factors that can lead to project failure;

♦ business risks: the impact on the organization if the project fails.

Project management involves not only stating the fact of the presence of uncertainty and risk and their analysis, but also risk management.

Project Risk Management– a set of methods for analyzing and neutralizing risk factors, including processes that ensure identification, analysis, planning of risks, development of responses and control throughout the entire life cycle of the project.

The goals of project risk management are to increase the likelihood and impact of positive events and reduce the likelihood and impact of negative events on project results and goals.

The main stages of the risk management process are presented in Fig. 5.5.

Rice. 5.5 Stages of the risk management process

Let's take a closer look at the stages of the risk management process.

1. In progress risk management planning a common approach to risk management for the entire team is developed and fixed.

Risk Management Plan must describe the procedures that will be used to manage risk during the project.

In addition to documenting the results of risk identification processes, the plan should cover:

– responsibility for management in various risk areas;

– procedures for monitoring project risks;

– distribution of the probability and impact of risks over the project life cycle;

– strategy for “containing” risks;

– strategy costs;

– schedule of events.

Risk Management Plan can be formal or informal, detailed or general according to the needs of the project, i.e. this plan is part general plan project.

Thus, the result of the process is risk management plan, which does not yet list specific risks and actions to manage them, but only specifies the rules that will be applied in other risk management processes.

2. Purpose of the process risk identification – identify risks , that may affect the project and document their characteristics.

As a result, a risk register appears, which is not only a list of risks, but also additional information on them (about the magnitude of the risk, risk owners, possible response measures, etc.).

The composition of parameters characterizing risk and reflected in the register is determined in the Risk Management Plan.

Risk identification– not a one-time action, it must be performed periodically throughout the project.

There are various methods and tools to identify project risks:

Review and analysis of all existing documentation;

Collection of additional data;

Brainstorm;

Interviewing based on a (non)standard questionnaire;

SWOT analysis;

Graphical methods – for example, “Ishikawa diagram”.

As a result of the process risk identification project team should get:

List of risks;

List of alarm signals (“triggers”).

3. A process is used to prioritize identified risks. qualitative risk analysis .

The list of risks, grouped by priority, is further used for quantitative risk analysis and to identify risks that require the development of a response plan.

The result of the entire risk management process is a risk register, which is updated with qualitative risk analysis data.

A qualitative risk analysis should ultimately lead to the following results (Fig. 5.6).

Rice. 5.6 Correlation between levels of expected profit and project risk

4. Quantitative Analysis considers risks that, through a qualitative risk analysis process, have been identified as potentially or currently having a significant impact to achieve the project's goals.

Quantitative risk analysis is performed:

· for determining possible options the end of the project and the degree of their likelihood;

· assessing the likelihood of achieving specific project goals;

· identifying the risks that require the most attention by quantifying their relative contribution to the overall project risk;

· defining realistic and achievable goals for cost, schedule or scope, taking into account project risks;

· definitions best solution on project management in a situation where some conditions or outputs remain uncertain.

5. After assessing the importance of risks, it is necessary to develop response methods on them. One method is risk response planning Its goal is to develop measures that need to be taken to increase the likelihood and impact of positive risks on the project and reduce the likelihood and impact of negative risks on the project.

The main result is a risk register, supplemented by selected risk responses.

For each risk, a responsible person is appointed who will carry out the planned activities.

Monitoring the implementation of the risk response plan and assessing its effectiveness should be carried out throughout the project life cycle.

6. Risk monitoring and control (control) after them .

After choosing a response method, it is important to control its implementation through monitoring, as well as monitor the emergence of new risks. If a risk occurs, the project team must identify this event And apply the planned impact. Risk management strategies are developed to reduce or prevent risks.

Risk Management Strategies:

risk aversion is the choice of a design solution from possible alternatives that almost completely eliminates the occurrence of a risk event. This strategy includes actions to change technical solutions or an alternative way to implement the project that does not have this risk;

transfer of risk. Risks are transferred to another party (usually for a fee). They are reflected in the contract documentation (to assign liability associated with the risk to the customer or other party involved in the project) or transferred to a third party not involved in the project (insurance);

risk reduction (reducing impact and/or consequences). To reduce risk, measures are taken to reduce the likelihood and/or unpleasant consequences of the occurrence of a risk event to an acceptable level. Such activities include drawing up alternative work plans, additional testing, duplication of suppliers, inviting experts, additional training of project participants, etc.;

risk taking – this is the recognition of the existence of risk and the refusal of active countermeasures due to their impossibility or inappropriateness. The adoption of this strategy involves in the future only monitoring the situation for timely detection of changes in the threat level (based on “triggers”). When choosing this strategy, it is necessary to prepare a “RE-active plan”.

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