Types of losses and risk factors. Types of losses and risks Contingent losses are associated with the following factors

The central place in assessing business risk is occupied by the analysis and forecasting of possible losses of resources during the implementation of entrepreneurial activity. We remind you once again that we do not mean the consumption of resources objectively determined by the nature and scale of entrepreneurial actions, but random, unforeseen, but potentially possible losses, arising as a result of deviation of the actual course of entrepreneurship from the planned, calculated scenario.

In order to assess the likelihood of certain losses, to predict the possible damage caused by the development of events according to the non-calculated option, you must first of all know all types of losses associated with business and be able to calculate them in advance or measure them as probable forecast values. At the same time, it is natural to want to evaluate each type of loss in quantitative terms and be able to bring them together, which, unfortunately, is not always possible to do.

When talking about calculating probable losses in the process of forecasting them, one important circumstance must be kept in mind. Random developments that influence the course and results of entrepreneurship can lead not only to losses in the form of increased resource costs and a decrease in the final result. The same random event can cause an increase in the costs of one type of resource and a decrease in the costs of another type, that is, along with increased losses of some resources, savings in others can be observed.

So, if a random event has a double impact on the final results of entrepreneurship, has both unfavorable and favorable consequences, when assessing the risk it is necessary to equally take both into account. In other words, when determining the total possible losses, the accompanying gain should be subtracted from the estimated losses.

Losses that may occur in business activities and are assessed by the magnitude and likelihood of their occurrence should be divided into material, labor, financial, time losses, and special types of losses.

Material types of losses are manifested in additional costs unforeseen by the entrepreneurial project or direct losses of material objects in the form of buildings, structures, equipment, property, products, goods, materials, raw materials, energy. In relation to each individual of the listed types of losses, different units of measurement are applicable. It is most natural to measure material losses in the same units, c. of which the quantity of a given type is measured material resources, that is, in physical units of mass, volume, area, length or in pieces, in objects.

However, it is not possible to bring together losses measured in different units and express them in one value. You cannot add kilograms and meters. Therefore, it is almost inevitable to calculate losses in in value terms, in monetary units. To do this, losses in the physical dimension are converted into a cost dimension by multiplying by the unit price of the corresponding material resource.

For a fairly significant amount of material resources in the form of objects, products, goods, the cost of which is known in advance, loss assessment can be carried out immediately in in monetary terms.

Having estimates of probable losses for each of the individual types of material resources in value terms, it is possible to bring them together, while observing the rules for dealing with random variables and their probabilities.

Labor losses represent the loss of working time caused by random, unforeseen circumstances. In direct measurement, labor losses are expressed in man-hours, man-days or simply hours of working time. The translation of labor losses into value, monetary terms is carried out by multiplying labor hours by the cost (price) of one hour.

Financial losses occur when there is direct monetary damage associated with overspending, unforeseen payments, payment of fines, payment of additional taxes, loss Money And valuable papers. At the same time, financial losses occur when money is not received or not received from the sources from which it should have been received, debts are not repaid, the buyer does not pay for products delivered to him, or a decrease in revenue due to a decrease in prices for products, goods, and services sold. Special types of monetary damage arise in connection with inflation, changes in the exchange rate of the ruble, and in addition to the legalized withdrawal of enterprise funds to the state and local budgets. Along with final, irrevocable losses, there may be temporary financial losses caused by freezing of accounts, untimely disbursement of funds, and deferment of debt payments.

Waste of time occurs when the process of entrepreneurial activity is slower than planned, with a delay. A direct assessment of such losses is carried out in hours, days, weeks, months of delay in obtaining the intended result. To convert the assessment of time losses into a cost measurement, it is necessary to establish what losses of income and profit from business can result from random losses of time.

Special types of losses occur in the event of damage to the health and life of people, environment, the prestige of the entrepreneur, as well as due to other events that have unfavorable social, moral and psychological consequences. Most often, special types of losses are extremely difficult to determine in quantitative and especially in monetary terms.

Naturally, for each type of loss, the initial assessment of the possibility of their occurrence and magnitude should be made over a period of a certain time duration, covering a month, year, period of business or other characteristic period.

When conducting a comprehensive analysis of probable losses for risk assessment, it is important to review the entire possible field of damage so as not to ignore the sources of risk. But it is equally important to identify which sources are prevalent.

When analyzing the types of losses listed above, it is necessary to divide probable losses into decisive and incidental, based on the most general assessment of their magnitude. In the tasks of determining business risk, side, secondary, and minor losses can be excluded when quantifying the level of risk. If among the losses under consideration one type is singled out, which either in magnitude or in probability of occurrence obviously suppresses the others, then when quantitatively assessing the level of risk, only this type of loss can be taken into account.

Let us assume that, as a result of the preliminary analysis, it was possible to filter out the most significant types of losses in terms of magnitude and probability of occurrence. Next, it is necessary to isolate the random components of losses and separate them from the systematic components.

In principle, when talking about losses that lead to risk, it is necessary to take into account only random losses that cannot be directly calculated or directly predicted and therefore not taken into account in the entrepreneurial project. If losses can be foreseen and predicted in advance, then they should be considered not as losses, but as inevitable expenses and included in the calculation calculation. Thus, the entrepreneur must take into account the expected movement of prices, taxes, and their changes in the course of business activities in the main project.

Only due to the imperfection of the methods used for calculating entrepreneurial activity or the entrepreneur’s insufficient study of the initial business project, systematic errors can be considered as losses in the sense that they can change the expected result for the worse. Therefore, before assessing the risk caused by the action of purely random factors, it is highly desirable to separate the systematic component of losses from the random ones. This is also necessary from the standpoint of mathematical correctness, since the procedures for acting with random variables differ significantly from the procedures for acting with deterministic variables.

Let us now consider in more detail the structure of losses depending on the type of business activity, highlighting production, commercial and financial entrepreneurship. At the same time, we note the most important factors that generate risk, and we will indicate what their main manifestations are, that is, the losses that occur in this type of business.

In the course of the subsequent presentation, speaking about probable losses, and bearing in mind that these are random variables, we will understand by the value of losses either the value of a random variable, or its generalized characteristic, for example, the mathematical expectation, the average value. Since the dependence of losses on individual factors is considered, that is, the probability of certain factor values ​​is known, from it it is possible to establish the probability of loss values ​​corresponding to a given factor value.

Before moving on to the analysis of the manifestations of random losses in industrial, commercial, and financial entrepreneurship, we will point out some specific sources, types of losses and factors influencing them.

Random losses include losses caused by the impact of unforeseen political factors. Such losses create political risk. It manifests itself in the form of an unexpected change in economic conditions, depending on political considerations and events. economic activity, creating an unfavorable background for the entrepreneur and thereby capable of leading to increased resource costs and loss of profit. Typical sources of such risk are an increase in tax rates, the introduction of forced deductions, changes in contractual terms, transformation of forms and relations of ownership, alienation of property and funds for political reasons. The magnitude of possible losses and the degree of risk determined by them in this case is very difficult to foresee.

Losses caused by natural disasters* leading to loss of economic resources are quite close in terms of unforeseenness.

Possible losses caused by imperfect methodology and incompetence of persons forming a business plan and calculating profits, income, and revenue are very specific. If, as a result of the action of these factors, the expected, calculated values ​​of profit, income, and proceeds from an entrepreneurial project are overestimated, and the actual results obtained turn out to be lower, then the difference is inevitably perceived as a loss. Although in reality, if the nominal values ​​of profit (income) were determined correctly, then the threat of such conditional losses might not have existed. But if an overestimation of the estimated profit has occurred, then its shortfall will certainly be considered a loss and the risk of such losses exists.

A special place is occupied by the entrepreneur’s losses caused by the dishonesty or insolvency of his partners. The risk of being deceived in a transaction or facing the insolvency of the debtor, the irrevocability of the debt, is, unfortunately, quite high.

Let us now move on to consider more trivial situations of threat of loss and risk in relation to typical types of business. By talking about the causes of losses and the factors that determine them, we thereby gain access to ways to reduce risk and suppress it. Let us emphasize again that it is almost impossible to completely avoid risk. But knowing what causes losses, an entrepreneur is able to weaken their threat, reducing the effect of an unfavorable factor.

So, let us characterize losses, the potential of which gives rise to economic, entrepreneurial risk.

A. Losses in manufacturing entrepreneurship

For production entrepreneurship The following losses are typical:

Decrease in planned volumes and sales of products due to a decrease in labor productivity, equipment downtime or underutilization of production capacity, loss of working time, absence required quantity raw materials, an increase in the percentage of defects leads to a shortfall in the planned revenue. The probable losses of DD in value terms are determined by the following expression:

Where O is the probable total decrease in production volume;

C - selling price per unit of volume. A reduction in prices at which products are planned to be sold due to insufficient quality, unfavorable changes in market conditions, a drop in demand, or price reform leads to probable losses, determined by the formula:

Where dP is the probable decrease in the price per unit of output; O - the total volume of products planned for production and sale.

Increased material costs due to excessive consumption of materials, raw materials, fuel, energy lead to losses determined by the dependence:

LD - dM] - C| + l M2 " Ts +

Where M is the probable overconsumption of material resources;

P is the price of a resource unit.

Other increased costs may arise due to high transportation costs, trade costs, overheads and other incidental costs.

Overspending of the planned amount of the wage fund leads to losses either due to exceeding the planned number, or due to payment of a higher level than planned wages individual employees.

Payment of increased deductions and fees may occur if, during the implementation of an entrepreneurial project, the rates of deductions and taxes change in a direction unfavorable for the entrepreneur.

We should not forget about the possibility of losses in the form of fines, natural loss, as well as those caused by natural disasters and epidemics, although it is not possible to take such losses into account by calculation.

B. Business losses

Let us list and characterize the most important species losses that should be taken into account when assessing commercial risk.

An unfavorable change (increase) in the purchase price of goods during the implementation of a business project, not taken into account in the project and not blocked by the terms of the purchase agreement, leads to probable losses DD:

Where C is the likely increase in the purchase price;

O - volume of purchases of goods in physical terms.

An unexpected decrease in the volume of purchases in comparison with the planned one causes a decrease in the volume of sales, that is, the scale of the entire operation. If, as a result of this reduction in volume, both expenses and income are proportionally reduced, then the loss of profit (income) is calculated as the product of the reduction in purchase volume by the amount of profit (income) per unit of sales volume of goods. However, there is usually a part of the so-called conditionally fixed costs, independent of the scale of the operation. In this case, losses will be higher, since costs per unit of volume of goods sold will increase. If this increase exceeds the estimated profit per unit, there is a tangible risk that the operation will not be profitable at all.

Loss of goods in the process of circulation (transportation, storage) or loss of quality, consumer value of the goods, leading to a decrease in its value, can cause damage, the level of which is estimated by the product of the quantity of lost goods by the purchase price or the product of the damaged quantity by the reduction in the selling price.

Excess of distribution costs in comparison with the planned ones leads to a corresponding decrease in revenue, income, and profit. Possible reasons for increased costs may include unexpected duties, deductions, fines, and additional expenses.

A reduction in the price at which a product is sold in comparison with the project price causes losses in the amount of sales volume multiplied by the price reduction.

A decrease in sales volume, caused by an unpredictable drop in demand or need for a product, its displacement by competing products, or restrictions on sales, can generate losses in revenue, income, and profit, measured by the product of the volume of undersales and the selling price.

B. Losses in financial entrepreneurship

Financial risk refers to the risk that arises when carrying out financial entrepreneurship or financial, monetary transactions.

Essentially it's the same commercial entrepreneurship, but the role of goods is securities or currency. So, when analyzing factors and types of financial risk, you can use the set that was presented when describing commercial risk, adjusted for the specifics of money and securities as goods.

Along with general provisions and approaches characteristic of all types of business risk, when assessing financial risk, it is necessary to take into account such specific factors as the insolvency of one of the agents of a financial transaction, changes in the exchange rate of money, currency, securities, restrictions on foreign exchange transactions, possible withdrawals of a certain part financial resources in the process of carrying out business activities,

When assessing business risk, the time factor plays an important role. It must be borne in mind that the magnitude of probable losses depends on time and this dependence manifests itself in two ways.

Firstly, the risk is associated with the duration of the entrepreneurial project. So, along with a risk assessment covering the entire period for which the implementation of activities and obtaining results is intended, in relation to long-term intentions, a separate assessment should be carried out by months, years or other time periods of the overall period of entrepreneurship.

Secondly, the measure of risk, the probability of losses, may change over time due to changes in the conditions for the implementation of a business plan. The latter circumstance leads to the need to distinguish between the initial (design) and current risk. The initial risk is assessed at the stage of preparation for the implementation of the project, in the process of initial calculations and justification of the feasibility of carrying out a business venture. The current risk is assessed during the implementation of the project, in the process of starting business activities.

Note that a situation cannot be ruled out in which conditions change over time for the worse than expected so much that a revision of the decisions made will be required. In an unfavorable combination of circumstances, the current risk can not only significantly exceed the initial one, but also exceed the maximum limiting values. In such a situation, there is a need to study alternatives associated with the termination of this type of business.

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When planning risk, it is necessary to distinguish between concepts such as resource costs, damages and losses. The economic activity of an enterprise is always associated with the expenditure of resources, while damages and losses occur due to an unfavorable combination of circumstances, miscalculations in planning and represent additional costs beyond those planned. If losses can be foreseen in advance and provided for in the plan, then they should be considered as unavoidable expenses and included in costs. Therefore, risk planning is a predictive assessment of possible losses of resources in the event of unfavorable circumstances and deviations from the planned strategy, as well as lost profits during business operations. In this case, it is necessary to quantify the predicted values ​​of losses.

Risk-related losses may be:

· material,

· labor,

· financial,

· time,

· others.

These types of losses can occur in all areas of economic activity: production, financial, commercial, etc. Knowing everyone's probable losses a separate type resources when planning an enterprise development strategy, you can assess the total risk associated with the chosen strategy option. It should be borne in mind that if one or another element of the strategy has a double impact on the results of production and economic activities, that is, it leads to overexpenditure and savings of resources, then when assessing the total risk, both savings and overexpenditure must be taken into account.

Material losses represent additional costs of raw materials, materials, fuel, energy, equipment and other property not provided for by the plan. When planning a strategy, these losses are assessed both in physical and cost terms.

Labor losses manifest themselves in unplanned costs of working time and can be expressed in physical and cost terms. For example, unforeseen intra-shift downtime of workers can be assessed in man-hours, as well as the amount of additional payments paid to workers for downtime. In addition, it is necessary to estimate the volume of products that the enterprise did not produce due to the stoppage of production.

Financial losses can take the form of direct monetary damage caused to an enterprise by unforeseen circumstances, for example, fines, penalties, penalties, non-repayment of receivables, a decrease in sales volumes due to lower prices for the enterprise's products, non-receipt of dividends on shares owned by the enterprise, etc.

Another group of financial losses includes depreciation of financial resources, such as depreciation and working capital due to inflation, late payments, freezing of accounts, etc.

Time losses are associated with the pace of strategy implementation, when the process of production and economic activity is carried out more slowly than was envisaged in the plan. Such losses are expressed, firstly, in the depletion of resources; secondly, in the delay in receipt financial results(cash flows). They are assessed using discounting.

A special group of losses, which in practice is quite difficult to assess, are losses associated with damage to the prestige of the enterprise, moral and psychological damage to its employees, damage to the environment, etc.

It is impossible to completely avoid risk in business activities, but knowing where and under what circumstances it can arise, management personnel can prevent it, reduce the risk of losses, reducing the effect of unfavorable factors. Therefore, it is important to know where certain losses may occur.

Other in economics

Factor analysis technique
All phenomena and processes of economic activity are interdependent in one way or another, and each event can be considered as a cause and as a consequence. Each performance indicator depends on numerous and varied factors...

When planning risk, it is necessary to distinguish between concepts such as resource costs, damages and losses. The economic activity of an enterprise is always associated with the expenditure of resources, while damages and losses occur due to an unfavorable combination of circumstances, miscalculations in planning and represent additional costs beyond those planned. In this case, it is necessary to quantify the predicted values ​​of losses.

Losses associated with risk can be: material, labor, financial, loss of time, and other losses.

These types of losses can occur in all areas of economic activity: production, financial, commercial, etc. Material losses represent additional costs of raw materials, materials, fuel, energy, equipment and other property not provided for by the plan. When planning a strategy, these losses are assessed both in physical and cost terms. Labor losses manifest themselves in unplanned costs of working time and can be expressed in physical and cost terms. For example, unforeseen intra-shift downtime of workers can be assessed in man-hours, as well as the amount of additional payments paid to workers for downtime. Financial losses may take the form of direct monetary damage caused to the enterprise by unforeseen circumstances, for example, fines, penalties, penalties, non-repayment of receivables, a decrease in sales volumes due to lower prices for the enterprise's products. Another group of financial losses includes depreciation of financial resources, for example, depreciation and working capital due to inflation, late payments, freezing of accounts, etc.

Waste of time are associated with the pace of strategy implementation, when the process of production and economic activity is carried out more slowly than was envisaged in the plan. Such losses are expressed, firstly, in the depletion of resources; secondly, in the delay in the receipt of financial results (cash flows). They are assessed using discounting. A special group of losses, which in practice is quite difficult to estimate, are losses associated with damage to the prestige of the enterprise, moral and psychological damage to its employees, damage to the environment, etc.

The most important tool When analyzing losses, it is necessary to know the reasons for their occurrence. Depending on the causes, risks can be classified. The following are distinguished: risk groups.

1. External risks.

1.1. Unpredictable external risks:

Measures of government influence in the areas of taxation, pricing, land use, financial and credit, etc.;

Natural disasters (earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and other climate disasters);

Criminal and economic crimes (terrorism, sabotage, racketeering);

External effects: environmental (accidents), social (strikes), economic (bankruptcy of partners), political (ban on activities, etc.)

1.2. Predictable external risks:

Market risk (changes in prices, exchange rates, consumer demands, market conditions, competition, inflation);

Operational risk (violation of operating and safety rules, deviation from project goals, etc.);

2. Internal risks.

2.1. Internal organizational risks:

Work disruptions due to shortages work force, materials, delays in deliveries, unsatisfactory conditions,

Cost overruns due to disruption of work plans, ineffective supply and sales strategies, low qualifications of personnel, errors in drawing up estimates and budgets, claims from partners, suppliers and consumers.

2.2. Internal technical risks:

Changes in work technology, errors in project documentation, equipment breakdowns, low quality of supplied materials, raw materials, components, etc.

3. Other risks:

Legal (arising in connection with the acquisition of licenses, patents, copyrights, brands, information protection using these methods);

Transport and customs incidents;

Risks associated with human health (bodily injuries, fatal injuries);

Damage to property during dismantling and relocation, etc. Knowledge of the causes and mechanisms of risk action allows us to find effective means of preventing and reducing them.

The central place in assessing business risk is occupied by the analysis and forecasting of possible losses of resources when carrying out business activities.

Here we're talking about not about the consumption of resources, objectively determined by the nature and scale of entrepreneurial actions, but about random, unforeseen, but potentially possible losses that arise as a result of deviations of the actual course of entrepreneurship from the planned scenario.

To assess the likelihood of losses caused by the development of events in an unforeseen scenario, you should first of all know all types of losses associated with business and be able to calculate them in advance or measure them as probable forecast values. At the same time, it is natural to want to evaluate each type of loss in quantitative terms and be able to bring them together, which, unfortunately, is not always possible to do.

When talking about calculating probable losses in the process of forecasting them, one important circumstance must be kept in mind. Random developments that influence the course and results of entrepreneurship can lead not only to losses in the form of increased resource costs and a decrease in the final result. The same random event can cause an increase in the costs of one type of resource and a decrease in the costs of another type, i.e. Along with the increased costs of some resources, there may be savings in others. So if a random event has a double impact on the final results of business, has unfavorable and favorable consequences, then when assessing risk, both should be taken into account equally. In other words, when determining the total possible losses, the accompanying gain should be subtracted from the estimated losses.

Losses that may occur in business activities should be divided into material, labor, financial, time, and special losses.

Material losses are manifested in additional costs not provided for by the entrepreneurial project or direct losses of equipment, property, products, raw materials, energy, etc. In relation to each individual of the listed types of losses, different units of measurement are applicable. It is most natural to measure material losses in the same units in which the amount of a given type of material resource is measured, i.e. in physical units of weight, volume, area, etc. However, it is not possible to bring together losses measured in different units and express them in one value. You cannot add kilograms and meters. Therefore, it is almost inevitable to calculate losses in monetary terms (in monetary units). To do this, losses in the physical dimension are translated into loads:

• * DDU means that the seller assumes transport risks to the place specified in the contract (most often a warehouse) on the buyer’s territory;
• * DDP means that the seller is responsible for transportation risks to a certain location in the buyer's territory, but the buyer pays for them.

It should be noted that in the domestic economic literature, commercial risk is often identified with entrepreneurial risk, but commercial risk is one of the types of entrepreneurial risk.

By commercial we mean the risk that arises in any type of activity related to the production of products, goods, services, their sale, commodity-monetary and financial transactions, commerce, the implementation of socio-economic and scientific-technical projects.

In the types of activities under consideration, one has to deal with the use and circulation of material, labor, financial, information (intellectual) resources, so the risk is associated with the threat of complete or partial loss of these resources. As a result, business risk is characterized as the danger of a potential, probable loss of resources or loss of income compared to an option designed for the rational use of resources in a given type of business activity. For a significant amount of material resources, the cost of which is known in advance, losses can immediately be assessed in monetary terms by multiplying by the unit price of the corresponding material resource.

Having an assessment of the probable losses for each type of material resource in value terms, it is possible to bring them together, while observing the rules for dealing with random variables and their probabilities.

Labor losses represent losses of working time caused by random, unforeseen circumstances, and are expressed in man-hours, man-days or simply in hours of working time. The conversion of labor losses into value terms is carried out by multiplying labor hours by the cost (price) of one hour.

Financial losses are direct monetary damages associated with unforeseen payments, payment of fines, payment of additional taxes, loss of cash and securities. In addition, financial losses may arise in the event of shortfall or non-receipt of money from the intended sources, non-repayment of debts, non-payment by the buyer for products supplied to him, or a decrease in revenue due to a decrease in prices for products and services sold.

Special types of monetary damage are associated with inflation, changes in the exchange rate of the ruble, and additional to the legalized withdrawal of enterprise funds into the state (republican, local) budget.

Along with final, irrevocable losses, there may also be temporary financial losses caused by the freezing of accounts, untimely disbursement of funds, or deferment of debt payments. Time wastage occurs when the business process is slower than planned. Direct assessment of such losses is carried out in hours, days, weeks, months of delay in obtaining the intended result. To convert the assessment of time losses into a cost measurement, it is necessary to establish what losses of income and profit from business can result from random losses of time.

Special types of losses manifest themselves in the form of damage to the health and life of people, the environment, the prestige of the entrepreneur, as well as due to other adverse social, moral and psychological consequences. Most often, special types of losses are extremely difficult to determine in quantitative, and even more so in value terms. Naturally, for each type of loss, an initial assessment of the possibility of their occurrence and magnitude should be made over a certain period of time, covering a month, a year, or the duration of the business.

When conducting a comprehensive analysis of probable losses to assess risk, it is important not only to identify all sources of risk, but also to identify which sources prevail.

Analyzing the types of losses listed above, it is necessary to divide probable losses into determining and incidental based on the most general assessment of their magnitude. When determining business risk, incidental losses can be excluded in the quantitative assessment of the level of risk. If among the losses under consideration one type is singled out, which either in magnitude or in probability of occurrence obviously suppresses the others, then when quantitatively assessing the level of risk, only this type of loss can be taken into account.

Let us assume that as a result of the preliminary analysis it was possible to “filter out” the most significant types of losses in terms of magnitude and probability of occurrence. Next, it is necessary to isolate the random components of losses and separate them from systematically recurring ones. In principle, it is necessary to take into account only random losses that cannot be directly calculated or directly predicted and therefore not taken into account in the entrepreneurial project. If losses can be foreseen in advance, then they should not be considered as losses, but as unavoidable expenses and included in the cost estimate. Thus, the entrepreneur must take into account the foreseeable movement of prices, taxes, and their changes in the course of business activities in the business plan.

Only due to the imperfection of the methods used for calculating entrepreneurial activity or the entrepreneur’s insufficient development of the business plan, systematic errors can be considered as losses in the sense that they can change the expected result for the worse.

Therefore, before assessing the risk caused by purely random factors, it is highly desirable to separate systematic losses from random ones.

This is also necessary from the standpoint of mathematical correctness, since the procedures for acting with random variables differ significantly from the procedures for acting with deterministic variables.

Let us consider in more detail the structure of losses depending on the type of business activity, i.e. production, commercial and financial entrepreneurship.

At the same time, we will highlight the most important factors that generate risk and indicate what their main manifestations are. Knowledge of risk factors allows you to take early measures to reduce their effect.

Considering random losses, we will point out some of their specific sources and the factors influencing them.

These include losses from the impact of unforeseen political factors. Such losses create political risk. It manifests itself in the form of unexpected changes in the conditions of economic activity caused by political considerations and events, creating an unfavorable background for the entrepreneur and thereby capable of leading to increased resource costs and loss of profit. Typical sources of such risk are an increase in tax rates, the introduction of forced deductions, changes in contractual terms, transformation of forms and relations of ownership, alienation of property and funds for political reasons. The magnitude of possible losses and the degree of risk determined by them in this case is very difficult to foresee.

Losses caused by natural disasters, as well as theft and racketeering are quite close in unpredictability.

Possible losses caused by imperfect methodology and incompetence of persons forming a business plan and calculating profits and income are very specific. If, as a result of the action of these factors, the expected values ​​of profit and income from an entrepreneurial project are overestimated, and the actual results obtained turn out to be lower, then the difference is inevitably perceived as a loss. Although in reality, if the nominal values ​​of profit (income) were determined correctly, then the threat of such conditional losses might not be taken into account. But when an overestimation of the estimated profit has occurred, then its “shortage” will certainly be considered damage, and the risk of such losses exists.

A special place is occupied by the entrepreneur’s losses caused by the dishonesty or insolvency of his partners. The risk of being deceived in a transaction or facing the insolvency of the debtor, the irrevocability of the debt, is, unfortunately, quite real.

Let us characterize losses, the potential of which gives rise to entrepreneurial risk.

Losses in manufacturing entrepreneurship.

• 1. A decrease in the planned volumes of production and sales of products due to a decrease in labor productivity, equipment downtime or underutilization of production capacity, loss of working time, lack of the required amount of raw materials, and an increased percentage of defects leads to a shortfall in the planned revenue.
• 2. A reduction in prices at which products are planned to be sold due to insufficient quality, unfavorable changes in market conditions, a drop in demand, or price inflation leads to probable losses.
• 3. Increased material costs due to excessive consumption of materials, raw materials, fuel, energy per unit of production lead to losses.
• 4. Other increased costs that may arise due to high transportation costs, trade costs, overhead and other incidental expenses.
• 5. Overexpenditure of the planned amount of the wage fund due to exceeding the estimated number or payment of a higher than planned level of wages to individual employees.
• 6. Payment of increased deductions and taxes if, during the implementation of the business plan, the rates of deductions and taxes change in a direction unfavorable for the entrepreneur.
• 7. We should not lose sight of the possibility of losses in the form of fines, natural loss, as well as those caused by natural disasters, although it is not possible to take such losses into account in a calculated way.

Losses in commercial entrepreneurship.

• 1. An unfavorable change (increase) in the purchase price of goods during the implementation of a business project and not blocked by the terms of the purchase agreement leads to probable losses.
• 2. An unexpected decrease in the volume of purchases in comparison with the planned one causes a decrease in the volume of sales, i.e., the scale of the entire operation. The loss of profit (income) is calculated as the product of the reduction in purchase volume by the amount of profit (income) per unit of sales volume. It should be borne in mind that a decrease in the volume of purchases and sales may be accompanied by a decrease in costs, because in addition to the so-called semi-fixed expenses there are costs proportional to the volume of the operation.
• 3. Loss of goods during circulation (transportation, storage) or loss of quality, consumer value of the goods, leading to a decrease in its value.

The level of such damage is established as the product of the quantity of lost goods by the purchase price or the product of the damaged quantity of goods by the reduction in the selling price.

• 4. An increase in distribution costs compared to those planned leads to an adequate decrease in income and profit. Possible reasons for increased costs may include unexpected duties, deductions, fines, and additional expenses.
• 5. A reduction in the price at which a product is sold compared to the project price causes losses in the amount of sales volume multiplied by the price reduction.
• 6. A decrease in sales volume due to an unpredictable drop in demand or need for a product, its displacement by competing products, or restrictions on sales, can cause losses in income and profit, measured by the product of the volume of unsold products times the selling price.

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