An effective tool for managing company value. Value-based management methods

Introduction

In the conditions of a market economy in Russia, the independence of enterprises in making business decisions, as well as responsibility for the results of their activities, there is a need for continuous strategic development of the enterprise and implementation of the system strategic management enterprise that contributes to the definition effective directions in the implementation of financial economic activity enterprise, orientation in financial opportunities and prospects arising in the current economic system countries.

Mastery of generally accepted financial management tools and the methodology for their construction will allow specialist managers to adapt to any possible change enterprise accounting and statistics systems.

These provisions explain the relevance course work

The purpose of the course work is to learn how to determine the indicators studied in the course " Theoretical basis financial management”, based on reporting data of specific enterprises, analyze the data obtained and draw conclusions.

To achieve the goal, the following tasks were set:

Analyze the main analytical tools for increasing the reliability of financial decisions, assessing calculated and reported values, financial condition specific company;

Perform calculations and analyze the results.

The object of research is the analyzed enterprise.

The subject of the study is the financial processes of the enterprise.

The theoretical and methodological basis of the study consisted of regulatory documents, scientific works of domestic and foreign specialists, materials from periodicals, methodological developments in the field of financial analysis, accounting, auditing and management accounting.

Basic analytical tools for financial solutions

In the management system of a commercial organization, analysis is intended to justify management decisions in financial management. The content of financial management is usually considered in relation to the activities of open joint stock companies, but the universality of the methodology of financial analysis allows it to be used in relation to activities commercial organization any organizational and legal form of the real sector of the economy, financial sector, as well as non-profit organizations.

In Russian science and practice, there is a fairly widespread point of view that financial analysis covers all sections of analytical work included in the financial management system, i.e. related to financial management of a business entity in the context environment including the capital market. At the same time, financial analysis is often understood as an analysis of the accounting (financial) statements of an organization, an analysis of its financial condition, which does not seem entirely correct, since it narrows the goals, content of financial analysis, its information base and the possibility of using the analysis results in management.

If we consider financial analysis as a tool of financial management, then it is first necessary to determine the content of the latter as an applied science, which was formed as a science about the methodology and practice of financial management of a large company. The traditional approach to determining the essence of financial management is that the following are considered as management objects:

Operating assets and capital investment;

Capital structure and attraction of necessary sources of financing.

As, for example, consider J.K. Van Horn and J.M. Wachowicz (Jr.), financial management, or financial management, consists of the activities of acquiring, financing and managing assets aimed at realizing a specific goal. Consequently, managerial decisions in the field of financial management can be attributed to the following main areas of asset transactions: investment, financing and management Van Horn, James K., Wachovich (Jr.), John M. Fundamentals of Financial Management. - 11th ed.: Trans. from English - M.: Publishing house "William", 2004. - p. 20 (992 pp.).

V.V. Kovalev Kovalev V.V. Financial management: theory and practice. - M.: TK Welby, publishing house "Prospekt", 2006. - p. 16 (1016 pp.) uses an object-procedural approach to defining financial management as an independent scientific and practical direction based on two key ideas:

1) financial management is a system of actions to optimize the financial model of the company, or in the narrower sense of its balance sheet, which allows you to highlight all the objects of attention of the financial manager;

2) the dynamic aspect of the financial manager’s activity is determined by the formulation of five key questions that determine the essence of his work:

Is the position of the enterprise in the markets of goods and factors of production favorable and what measures contribute to its non-deterioration;

Do cash flows ensure the rhythm of payment and settlement discipline;

Is the enterprise operating efficiently on average?

Where to invest financial resources with the greatest efficiency;

Where to get the required financial resources.

Viewing balance as financial model company in the context of management decisions of financial management, we will show in the diagram the relationship between the balance sheet and management decisions on investing and raising capital (Fig. 1).

Rice. 1

financial management analytical reporting tool

The need for assets, the size, structure and quality of which allows the company to achieve the strategic goals of the company, is covered by its own and borrowed sources financing. The structure of a business entity's permanent capital can be optimized taking into account the following restrictions. Focusing on the maximum share of equity capital, on the one hand, ensures independence from suppliers of borrowed capital, on the other hand, it reduces the ability to invest capital, does not contribute to the growth of return on invested capital and increases the weighted average cost of capital. The desire to excessively increase the share of borrowed capital and thereby reduce the weighted average cost of capital leads to the risk of loss of financial stability, increases financial costs for debt servicing, reduces profit after tax and the ability to pay dividends.

The optimal size and structure of operating assets, technical and economic parameters reflecting the state and level of use of fixed capital, as well as the turnover of working capital determine the amount of income received. At the same time, investing capital always potentially contains the risk of not receiving the expected income, reducing market value shares (company value), which may be due to incorrect strategic decisions and insufficient efficiency of current activities. Suboptimal management decisions regarding the choice of capital investment options, one way or another, lead to an excess of the weighted average cost of attracted capital compared to the level of return on invested capital.

Profit as capital gain is generated in the process of ongoing activities in the production of goods and is realized after its sale. At the same time, the functioning of assets as invested capital is a factor determining the amount of income. At the same time, the nature of resource consumption and the amount of borrowed sources of financing determine the level of current production costs and financial expenses. Therefore, the scope of management includes not only the costs of acquiring resources (assets), but also income as a result of investing capital, as well as expenses as costs of consuming resources. The excess of income over expenses and the level of return on invested capital ultimately determine the amount of profit from operating activities and the increase in retained earnings, and, consequently, equity capital. Profit is not only the result of the functioning of assets, but also a condition for the further development of the organization, economic justification payment of income to owners on invested capital.

Investing and raising capital, income received and expenses incurred are accompanied by cash flows, the management of which is one of the most important tasks in financial management.

Indicators of profit, return on invested capital, and cash flow are key in justifying management decisions and are considered as factors determining the achievement of the goal of financial management - increasing the wealth of shareholders, and the criterion for the effectiveness of implemented management decisions is cost, the qualitative and quantitative determination of which is a rather difficult task.

The subject of management in financial management is the financial manager senior management(financial director), whose role in the management of a large company is very significant, and whose functions are varied. They are determined by tasks in the field of financial analysis and financial planning as tools for achieving the goals of financial management, taking into account the internal conditions of the organization’s functioning and external environmental factors.

In Russia, the status of the financial director, the general list of his job responsibilities and qualification requirements defined in Qualification directory positions of managers, specialists and other employees. In accordance with this document in job responsibilities the financial director (deputy director for finance) includes determining the financial policy of the organization, developing and implementing measures to ensure its financial stability; management of financial management work based on the strategic goals and development prospects of the organization. In addition to performing other important functions, the financial director takes measures to ensure solvency, a rational structure of assets, ensures the provision of the necessary financial information to internal and external users, organizes work on analysis and evaluation financial results activities of the organization and development of measures to improve the efficiency of financial management. The financial director must know methods of analysis and performance evaluation financial activities organizations, methods and planning procedures financial indicators.

The nature of the requirements for the financial director of an organization is determined by its size and structure, industry, development strategy and other factors. But the general list of responsibilities of the financial director of a medium and large company certainly includes financial analysis, monitoring of financial indicators that allow assessing the achievement of its strategic goals and operational financial management indicators, justification of management decisions in the field of financial management, and general risk assessment.

From this point of view, it seems necessary to determine the subject and content of financial analysis, which is important not only from a scientific but also from a practical point of view - properly organized analytical work is of exceptional importance for the timely adoption of management decisions.

In our opinion, financial analysis should be understood as an analysis of the efficiency of operating activities, methods of raising capital and investing capital in order to maintain constant solvency, generate profits and increase the value of the organization. This definition allows us to link the factors increasing the value of a company with financial indicators, highlight the strategic and operational aspects of financial analysis, as well as its content in the context of operational, investment and financial activities.

In relation to a commercial organization, the tasks of analysis to justify management decisions and evaluate their implementation in the field of operating activities include:

Justification of the strategy for financing current assets;

Analysis of working capital turnover to ensure its normal circulation;

Assessment of liquidity and solvency of the organization;

Analysis of the formation of financial results from the sale of products, assessment of profit growth factors in the short term, assessment of the effectiveness of the current activities of the company as a whole and its individual segments.

Effective management of investment activities is associated with assessing the structure and return of assets and justifying adequate management decisions on the choice of production and financial investment options to ensure the required level of return on invested capital. In turn, management decisions in the field of financial activities should be based on the study of possible ways to attract capital in financial markets, and financial analysis procedures should be aimed at optimizing the structure of sources of financing investment programs and the weighted average cost of capital.

Operational aspects of financial analysis are manifested in monitoring the status of receivables and payables, substantiating the most rational forms of settlements with counterparties, maintaining the balance Money necessary for daily calculations, analysis of the turnover of individual elements of working capital, monitoring indicators of operating and financial cycles, analysis of financial budgets and assessment of their implementation. These tasks are implemented in the process of ongoing financial work, which makes it possible to control the process of implementing management decisions and maintain the financial condition of the organization at a level that ensures the solvency of the organization.

The strategic aspects of financial analysis are associated mainly with the application of the methodology of financial analysis in the development and justification of the organization’s development strategy, which is impossible without the implementation of investment programs, their financial security, the corresponding return on invested capital and the financial stability of the organization. Strategic issues of financial analysis also include the justification of dividend policy and distribution of after-tax profits. Currently, the strengthening of the role of strategic aspects of financial analysis is due to the introduction into management practice of the concept of managing the value of a company and the need to analyze strategic risks.

In addition, decision-making in the field of financial management is based on the study of the external conditions of the organization’s functioning, assessment of the organization’s position in the capital market, as well as external analysis financial condition and business activity current and potential counterparties of the organization from the point of view of the feasibility of establishing and continuing business contacts.

In this context, the analysis of financial (accounting) statements, in the author’s opinion, should be considered as one of the sections of classical financial analysis, mainly external, which has not lost its significance at the present time, but not the only tool for justifying business decisions.

Speaking about the optimality of management decisions in the field of financial management, we mean effective management operating, investment and financial activities in terms of a reasonable balance of costs and benefits, risk and profitability in accordance with the strategic goals of the company.

At the same time, the strategy of an organization (as a subject of market relations) is understood as the concept of its functioning for a given perspective, formulated in the form of goals, priorities in development directions, a system of strategic management decisions and a program of adequate measures, developed taking into account the risks of the external and internal environment that can ensure achievement set goals, the formation of competitive advantages and increasing the value of the organization with an acceptable degree of risk.

Issues of strategy development, its revision and optimization in modern management become inextricably linked with company value management. The ability of company management to find and effectively use opportunities to increase value also forms a fundamentally new area of ​​key competence - the ability to “create” value turns into a source competitive advantage. Cost is considered as an economic criterion that reflects the impact of decisions made on all indicators by which the company's activities are assessed (market share, competitiveness, revenues, investment needs, operational efficiency, cash flows and risk level), allowing to rank options in a choice situation.

The modern concept of Value-Based Management (hereinafter referred to as VBM) is aimed at qualitatively improving strategic and operational decisions at all levels of the organization by concentrating efforts on key value factors to achieve the goal of maximizing the value of the company. The principle of value maximization does not determine the direction of business development and the sources of growth in the value of the company, but sets a single direction for analyzing and evaluating performance results, a coordinate system for managing both individual subsystems and the organization as a whole in the process of implementing the strategy (Fig. 2).

T. Copeland, T. Koller, J. Murrin believe: “The value of a company is the best measure of performance because its assessment requires complete information” Copeland T., Kohler T., Murrin J. The value of companies: valuation and management. - 2nd ed., ster.: Trans. from English - M.: ZAO "Olymp-Business", 2002. - P. 44..

The orientation of the company's strategy to increase its value involves the selection and use in financial analysis of the most informative indicators characterizing aspects of operating, investment and financial activities; achieving company goals and ways to achieve goals as efficiency factors.


Rice. 2

At the same time, it is important to distinguish between strategic indicators and indicators of operational analysis and control of economic activities; lagging (reflecting past events) and leading (reflecting forecast estimates) indicators. The optimal amount of both allows you to reduce the amount of redundant information and largely determines the quality of analysis and management decisions. Endless modeling of derived indicators, their excessive detail, endowment of indicators with characteristics not inherent to them, expansion of the volume of management information leads to increased costs for collecting and processing information, its redundancy and ineffective use.

Despite the variety of value indicators, their strengths and limitations, all models essentially have the same basis: new value is created when companies receive a return on invested capital that exceeds the cost of raising capital. At the same time, a single indicator in a specific cost management model cannot perform informational and evaluation functions, nor can it serve as a tool for making management decisions and a means of motivating personnel at all hierarchical levels.

The problem of forming a system of indicators that best suits management tasks is not new and has long been discussed by specialists in the field of analysis and management. In relation to traditional financial indicators generated in the system accounting and reflected in the accounting (financial) statements, the problematic aspects of their application are associated with their certain limitations:

The value of financial indicators can be changed by accounting methods, methods of asset valuation, and the application of tax legislation for accounting purposes (the latter is typical for Russian accounting practice), which distorts the amount of expenses, profits and indicators derived from them;

Financial indicators reflect past events and current facts of economic life;

Financial indicators are distorted by inflation and are easily veiled and falsified;

Generalizing financial indicators reflected in the accounting (financial) statements and the coefficients derived from them are “too” generalizing and cannot be used at all levels of management of the organization;

Accounting (financial) statements as a source of information for calculating relative financial indicators do not fully reflect the value of assets and do not cover all income-generating factors associated with intellectual capital;

Profit as an accounting performance indicator cannot be a criterion for evaluating long-term management decisions.

For many businesses, it is normal for everyday decisions to be made without regard to the value of the company. This approach is justified by the fact that this indicator depends on factors that cannot be taken into account, which means that the value of the company cannot be controlled, much less planned. In fact, a financial director only needs one report to manage the value of a company.

For company value management you need to understand how current activities affect it, what contribution each manager makes, influencing cash flows in one way or another. These problems can be solved using special report“Forecast of changes in value”, which is successfully used in the Dinal company (see Table 1).

IN report on changes in company value The value of economic value added (EVA) is given as of the current month, as well as its forecast for a year, five years and on an indefinite horizon. It also lists the factors influencing EVA and the personnel responsible for them.

Information structured in this way allows you to answer several important questions:

  • How effective is the company's value management and who is responsible for it;
  • is there room for value growth;
  • what awaits the company in the medium and long term.

Now let’s learn more about how to create a similar report for your company.

Drawing up a report on changes in the value of the company

The first thing you need to do is to highlight the indicators that affect economic added value. For convenience, the relationship between them and the EVA value can be represented in the form of a tree (see diagram). So, the starting point is the formula for economic added value:

EVA = NOPAT – CoC,

Where NOPAT– net operating profit after taxes (net operating profit after tax), rub.;
CoC– cost of capital of the company, rub.

Hence, the cost factors of the first (upper) level are operating profit after taxes (the higher the profit, the greater the EVA, direct relationship and positive impact) and the cost of capital (inverse relationship, negative impact). Next, let’s break these indicators down into their components. In other words, let's define the second level cost factors that affect net operating profit before taxes (NOPAT) and cost of capital (CoC):

NOPAT = EBIT – T,

where EBIT– profit before taxes and accrued interest on loans and borrowings, rub.;
T– income tax, rub.;

CoC = NAWACC,

where N.A.– net assets of the company (total assets – non-interest-bearing current liabilities), rub.;
WACC– weighted average cost of capital, %.

Cost factors of the third, fourth and all subsequent levels are similarly identified. In particular, EBIT can be expressed in terms of revenue, variables and fixed costs, and break the latter down into separate items - rent, wages and depreciation, etc. The same goes for variable costs, where cost and quantity are distinguished products sold. Proceeding in this way, the original EVA formula can be decomposed down to the selling price of the product and the cost of a unit of raw materials.

The tree of cost factors shown in the diagram is presented in an enlarged form. Naturally, in practice, deeper detail will be needed to understand in more detail what will change EVA. By the way, if you analyze the resulting diagram, it is easy to notice that the indicators above (all those that relate to the calculation of NOPAT) are nothing more than articles management report on income and expenses from core activities. The lower group of factors affecting the company's net assets are balance sheet items. That is, when constructing a tree of cost factors, you can use existing items and analytical features of accounting or take as a basis items from the budget of income and expenses and the forecast balance. Then, for each of them, determine how it affects EVA.

Table 1. Forecast of changes in company value (extract)

p/p Factors
stand
bridges /
responsible
veins
Reporting period (month) Year Future
June July contribution to EVA for July, thousand rubles. July deviation from
June level, %*
2014 2015 (forecast) contribution to EVA for 2015,
thousand roubles.
deviation 2015 from
level 2014,
%
2020 deviation 2020 from
level 2015,
%
1 NOPAT, thousand rubles 419 453 +34 8 6438 6661 +223 3 8653 30
1.1 Revenue,
thousand roubles.,
including by
responsible
venous:
5260 4986 –274 –5 55 863 59 303 +3440 6 66 224 12
1.1.1 general
ny
director
1420 1126 –294 –20 10 294 13 507 +3213 0,06
1.1.2 commercial
chesical
director
3840 3860 +20 1 45 569 45 796 +227 0,50
1.2 Change-
new expenses,
thousand roubles.
3478 3100 +378 –11 32 959 36 758 –3799 12 41 048 12
1.3 Rent,
thousand roubles.
200 200 0 0 2160 2400 –240 11 2400 0
1.4 Payment for labor
yes, thousand rubles
958 1020 –62 6 11 496 10 619 +877 –8 10 760 1
1.5 Amorti-
ation,
thousand roubles.
100 100 0 0 1200 1200 0 0 1200 0
1.6 Tax
at the
true story,
thousand roubles.
105 113 –8 8 1610 1665 –56 3 2163 30
2 Clean
assets,
thousand roubles.
21 347 21 449 –2 0,5 21 808 23 169 –313 6 27 395 18
2.1 Extra-bio-
company commanders
assets,
thousand roubles.
18 992 18 892 +2 –1 19 592 18 392 +276 –6 17 192 –7
2.2 Reserves
mother-
alov,
thousand roubles.
1605 1658 –1 3 1387 1765 –87 27 1648 –7
2.3 Debtor-
Skye
owed
ness,
thousand roubles.,
including those responsible:
1315 1475 –3 12 1369 1554 –42 13 1451 –7
2.3.1 commercial
creative director
1315 1475 –3 12 1369 1554 –42 13
2.4 Cash,
thousand roubles.
120 51 +1 –58 50 2223 –500 4347 7819 252
2.5 Short-term liabilities,
thousand roubles.
685 627 –1 –8 590 765 +40 30 715 –7
3 WACC, % 1,92 1,83 +18 –4 23 22,5 +116 –2 20 –11
4 Total
contribution
responsible
of authorized persons in EVA,
thousand roubles.
4.1 Commercial Director +17 +185
5 EVA, thousand rubles 10 60 +50 492 1422 1448 +25 2 3174 119

* Deviation = (reporting period - previous period): last period 100%.

Responsibility for managing the company's value

Once the final indicators that influence EVA are determined (the last ones in the value chain, such as revenue in the diagram), it is necessary to understand who in the company is responsible for each of them. For example, the financial director's sphere of influence is the cost of attracted sources of financing, therefore, he is responsible for the weighted average cost of capital (WACC).

Some cost factors may be influenced by multiple officials. For example, if the CEO is in charge of acquiring new customers and the sales manager is in charge of maintaining ongoing sales, both are considered responsible for revenue. The influence of employees on the value of the company is presented in the form of a matrix of distribution of responsibility (see Table 2).

Table 2. Responsibility distribution matrix

Cost indicators Responsible persons
general
director
commercial
director
financial
director
Production Director manager
on supply
boss
installation department
supervisor
AXO
Revenue +1 +1
Variable expenses –1 –1 –1
Rent –1 –1
Salary –1 –1 –1
Depreciation –1
Income tax –1
Fixed assets –1
Material stocks –1 –1
Accounts receivable –1
Cash –1
Short-term liabilities +1 +1
WACC –1*

* The sign characterizes the influence of the cost indicator on the EVA value (“+” – growth (direct relationship), “–” – decrease (inverse relationship)). If, when calculating EVA, two negative indicators are involved in division or multiplication (such as WACC and net assets), then one of them is taken into account with the opposite sign (WACC).

Data for the report on changes in company value

The report will require accounting and management data - the actual values ​​of those same final cost factors for the current year (with detail by day) and for several recent years(per month). The data is presented in the form of a table (see Table 3). It is not necessary to achieve perfect accuracy in numbers; deviations are acceptable. The main thing is that the collected information has analytics corresponding to those defined by the responsibility distribution matrix. Namely, the final cost factor and the responsible official were indicated.

When a cost factor is assigned to one manager, the data table shows the entire amount for the period. It is more difficult to distribute the value of a factor among several employees. If these are income or expenses, you can clarify who initiated them and what amount was discussed. For example, the company’s revenue for July 2014 was 6,500 thousand rubles: according to accounting data, 2,400 thousand rubles came from a new client attracted general director, and the remaining 4,000 thousand rubles are the result of transactions supervised by the commercial director.

As for balance sheet indicators, you will have to figure out why they changed compared to the previous period. For example, what is the reason for this particular balance of inventory - the supply manager purchased materials for future use or the turnover of raw materials in production decreased.

If it is impossible to break down the amount by responsibility (most likely this will happen in relation to previous years), then it is attributed to the person who is ultimately responsible for the line of business. For example, inventories - for the purchasing manager, variable expenses - for the production director, etc. By the way, the more detailed EVA is decomposed, the easier it will be to distribute amounts between employees.

Table 3. Database for creating a report on changes in company value (extract)

date Factor
cost
you
1st level
Factor
cost
2nd level
Finite
factor
cost
Responsible Influence
indicator on EVA
Amount, thousand rubles
31.01.14 NOPAT EBIT Revenue General
ny
director
+1 2500
31.01.14 NOPAT EBIT Revenue Commerce
creative director
+1 4000
31.01.14 NOPAT EBIT Amorti-
tion
Director
by production
–1 1100
31.07.15 Costs of attracting financing Net assets Fixed assets General
director
–1 18 892

Contents of the report on changes in company value

The structure of the report on changes in the value of the company repeats the structure of the tree of cost factors (see Table 1). The report is generated and analyzed in the following sequence. First, the current state of affairs. Then a forecast for economic value added by the end of the year and for the distant future (five years), implying that the company's growth rate will remain unchanged. Finally, a final assessment of the value of the business is made with the assumption that it will exist for a long, foreseeable period. So, everything in turn.

Reporting period. This section summarizes the results of the month and compares the results obtained with the previous (base) period (in Table 1 these are July and June, respectively). Moreover, the values ​​of indicators are compared not according to the usual “more or less” scheme, but according to their contribution to economic added value. Depending on how exactly a particular indicator affects EVA, the calculation of its impact will vary.

Thus, the contribution of income and expenses (net operating profit after taxes and its components - revenue, variable and fixed expenses, etc.) is determined as the difference between the results of the reporting and base months. Let’s say that in June the company earned 5,260 thousand rubles, and in July – 4,986 rubles, which is 274 thousand rubles less. Consequently, in July sales volume had a negative impact on EVA by exactly this amount. As for operating profit (NOPAT), despite the sales results, it increased by 34 thousand rubles, as did economic added value.

The impact of assets and liabilities is assessed somewhat differently:

Contribution to EVA of assets (or liabilities) = (Assets (or liabilities) at the end of the reporting period - Assets (or liabilities) at the end of the base period) WACC of the base period.

For example, at the end of June the company's net assets amounted to 21,347 thousand rubles, and in July they increased to 21,449 thousand rubles. The weighted average cost of capital in June was 1.92 percent. Accordingly, the increase net assets by 102 thousand rubles led to a decrease in economic added value by 2 thousand rubles. ((21,449 thousand rubles – 21,347 thousand rubles) 1.92%).

The impact on EVA of the weighted average cost of capital can be assessed as follows:

Contribution to EVA of the cost of capital = (WACC in the reporting period - WACC in the base period) x Net assets at the end of the reporting period.

After completing the calculations, it is worth carrying out a control check - the sum of the contributions of the cost factors must coincide with the amount of increase (decrease) in EVA. In the example, everything converges (the report given in Table 1). EVA increased by 50 thousand rubles, which is equal to the sum of the contributions of all final cost factors.

To make the report more convenient to analyze, it can also show relative deviations of the current period from the base period ((current period - base) : base 100%). Such information will help you quickly figure out, for example, why in July (see Table 1), with lower revenue, profit was higher - the reason is that variable costs decreased at a faster pace than sales.

Forecast for the year. The logic for working with the second block of the report (“Forecast for the year”) is similar. The only difference is that all indicators are planned. The main question here is how to predict them. For example, in order to make a forecast broken down by month for a company (the data for which is presented in Table 1), it is first reasonable to highlight fixed expenses (rent, depreciation, etc.). These costs will be repeated month after month, and no measures are planned to reduce them. The forecast for non-current assets was compiled taking into account depreciation charges (calculation formula, see Table 4). As for the weighted average cost of capital, it is expected to decrease from 23 to 22.5 percent, as the financial service was able to restructure the company's loan portfolio in July.

To obtain a revenue forecast, it is enough to build a linear trend (Excel TREND function) based on historical data, for example, for the previous six months. All other report indicators can be calculated through revenue and turnover (see Table 4). And finally, the cash balance at the end of the year is easily determined by the indirect method (balance at the beginning of the period + NOPAT + depreciation - increase in assets + decrease in liabilities + interest on loans and borrowings).

Table 4. Methodology for forecasting cost factors

Projected indicator Calculation formula
Variable expenses Revenue in the forecast period (Sum of actual variable expenses for the last six months: Sum of actual revenue
over the past six months)
Ending inventory Variable expenses in the forecast period: Average inventory turnover for the last six months
Accounts receivable at the end of the period Revenue in the forecast period: Average turnover
accounts receivable for the last six months
Current liabilities at the end of the period Variable expenses in the forecast period: Average accounts payable turnover for the last six months
Non-current assets at the end of the period Non-current assets at the end of the forecast period –
– Depreciation

Forecast for the future. The technique for constructing a forecast for a five-year perspective is similar to that used for planning until the end of the year. The only difference is that the forecast is broken down by year.

In addition to the report, data on the company's value is provided. It is equal to the amount of net assets at the end current year and future values ​​of economic added value discounted by WACC in the forecast (in the example from 2016 to 2020) and in the post-forecast period. The formula is:

where C– company value, rub.;
NAt– net assets at the beginning of the forecast period, rub. (in the example this is 23,169 thousand rubles in 2015);
EVAi– EVA value in i-th year forecast period (total T years, in the example – 5 years from 2016 to 2010), rub.;
EVAt– EVA value at the end of the forecast period (for 2020), rub.;
WACC– weighted average cost of capital, %;
g– estimated average annual growth rate of EVA in the post-forecast period, %.

For the sake of simplicity, assume that in the example the long-run growth rate of economic value added is zero. Hence the sum of discounted values ​​of economic added value for the forecast and post-forecast periods is 10,505 thousand rubles. According to calculations from Table 1, net assets at the end of 2015 will amount to 23,169 thousand rubles. Accordingly, the cost of the company will be 33,674 thousand rubles.

Let us illustrate what conclusions can be drawn from the “Forecast of changes in the value of the company” (see Table 1). The first is that in all periods under consideration, economic added value is above zero, that is, the value of the business is growing. At the end of July, EVA increased by 50 thousand rubles, but over the next five months it will increase only by 25 thousand rubles. The reason is that its growth will be constrained by an increase in inventories and receivables. This is an alarming signal; the July results show that the company can work more efficiently.

In the long-term forecast, EVA will exceed 3 million rubles, but taking into account discounting, its growth compared to 2015 will be nominal. The total value of the business, estimated on the basis of future discounted EVA values, shows that the return on net assets will be 45 percent (RUB 10,505 thousand: RUB 23,169 thousand). This state of affairs will most likely not suit the owners. And now you can take measures to avoid this. Namely, to determine which cost factors need to be influenced, evaluate their acceptable values ​​and develop the necessary program of action. For example, to provide in the budget for the reduction of accounts receivable and inventories to a given level and link the motivation of responsible persons with this - commercial director, production director and supply manager.

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  • An example of automated calculation of a forecast of changes in the value of a company.xls

Theoretical and methodological foundations of company value management

In an established economy, company value management is a method, the implementation of which allows the top management of an enterprise to make only those decisions that strengthen the enterprise's position in the market. This saves time senior managers due to the fact that they concentrate on solving exclusively strategic problems that determine the sustainable development of the enterprise.

All other operational issues are delegated to the lower level of managers, on whom their decisions directly depend. Moreover, senior management easily monitors the results of work at lower levels using a minimum set of indicators.

Cost Management – new approach in strategic management

Scientific interest in the concept of company cost management was initially generated by the need of the business community, stemming primarily from the desire to win in the face of growing competitive pressure.

In practice, the problems of cost management are closely intertwined with the problems corporate governance And financial system. IN general view value is a company's equity or market capitalization.

The value of the company should be considered as an optimal criterion for operating efficiency due to the fact that:

Its assessment requires complete information, taking into account risk factors and time, opportunity costs;

Increasing shareholder value does not conflict with the long-term interests of other stakeholders, since shareholders are residual claimants to the company's cash flows. Residual capital takes on the greatest risk, but it is with it that the right to make management decisions is associated. Powerful incentives encourage shareholders to maximize the (limited) value of their claims;

Companies that operate inefficiently will inevitably experience capital leakage to competitors.

Understanding how value is created requires thinking in long-term terms; manage all cash flows related to the income statement and balance sheet. In order to manage value, it must be measured in some way.

Currently, there are different approaches and methods for assessing the value of a business:

Profitable;

Market;

Costly (property).

There is a close link between sound strategy and value creation, and indeed the link between financial strategy and business strategy is becoming ever closer; corporate strategy, since it is designed to provide advantages in the market corporate control and the financial market, must, by definition, be based on financial considerations.

Analytical value management tools such as discounted cash flow valuation and value driver analysis equip companies to make decisions that create new value.

Although the main final indicator was and remains the market price of shares (or its dynamics), it is convenient to use economic profit.

The target economic profit can be decomposed into the standard indicators that determine it production activities down to the most detailed level that could guide functional and operational managers. This requires, on the one hand, the establishment of effective information and management systems, the development of a cash flow model for each enterprise, and the collection of input data for the forecast. On the other hand, the company has a balanced scorecard, distribution of responsibilities among managers at all levels and other advantages of cost management.

A company's value is determined by its discounted future cash flows, and new value is created only when companies earn a return on invested capital that exceeds the cost of raising capital.

Cost management further deepens these concepts, since in such a management system the entire mechanism for making major strategic and operational decisions is built on them. Properly established value management means that all the company's aspirations, analytical methods and management techniques are aimed at one common goal: to help the company maximize its value by basing the management decision-making process on key value factors.

Cost management is fundamentally different from the planning systems adopted in the 60s of the last century. It has ceased to be a function exclusively of the management apparatus and is designed to improve decision-making at all levels of the organization. It initially assumes that the top-down, command-and-control style of decision-making does not bring the desired results, especially in large multi-industry corporations, which means that lower-level managers need to learn to use cost indicators to make more promising decisions.

Increasing competition between companies and the deepening struggle for limited resources are placing increasingly stringent demands on the quality of financial management and business performance as a whole. In such conditions, special importance is attached to finding a strategic goal and indicators that determine the degree of its achievement and fulfillment of the assigned tasks. Systems aimed at cost management are designed to solve such problems.

Systems aimed at cost management are systems whose main goal is, on the one hand, the formation of a set of assessments of the compliance of the actual state of the company with its strategy and tactics, and on the other, the creation of active feedback from management systems (primarily financial accounting) with data information system. Strong and weak sides current efficiency indicators are presented in table. 2.4.4.1

Table 2.4.4.1.1

Current performance meters

Index

Strengths

Weak sides

Interest of owners and managers. Organization of a simple and effective motivation system. Ease of calculation (according to accounting data).

Prioritizing decisions aimed at short-term financial maximization over decisions of strategic importance.

Market share

An incentive to build effective competition systems.

Complexity of calculation and low reliability (external data). Imbalance of strategies. Does not reflect the relationship between tactics and strategy.

Company size (number of employees, revenue)

An effective system of motivation for hired managers. Simplicity and objectivity of calculation.

Ineffective and non-core businesses are not excluded from the structure. There is no direct link to the long-term prosperity of the company.

The main goal of such systems is to focus on key indicators such as the value of the company and its share capital, economic added value, and cash flow. The difference between these systems and traditional ones is that they perform a service function in relation to financial management systems.

Rice. 2.4.4.1.

In domestic practice, the traditional indicator of business performance is profit, which personifies current successes and which Russian managers pay more attention to. This approach focuses managers at different levels of management on short-term priorities.

Foreign partners usually consider the value of the enterprise as an indicator of business valuation. The difference between these approaches is shown in Fig. 2.4.4.1.1.

Thus, the determining factor that influenced the formation modern systems management accounting is a change in the philosophy of thinking of management personnel and the refusal to consider profit as the main goal of the enterprise and the transition to a multi-purpose individual development function.

Under these conditions, profit becomes not a goal, but a conditional accounting category, the calculation options for which give different meanings; the main measurable indicator, the strategic maximization of which is necessary, is the long-term value (value) of the company.

Consequently, accounting profit and the organization’s performance indicators formed on its basis do not fully reflect the performance of the business, as evidenced by the opinions of individual authors.

Having investigated this issue, I.A. Kanushina, in the article “Strategic Profit Management” revealed limited opportunities indicators calculated using accounting profit values ​​for the adoption of strategic development goals of the company. The author notes that financial statements does not provide the information necessary to calculate the full cost modern company. “A number of resources that generate income are not included in the assets recorded. Such resources include: investments in R&D, personnel training, investments in the creation and promotion trademark, in business reorganization. All these resources are elements of capital, but are not recognized as assets in accordance with accounting standards and do not participate in the calculation of accounting profit. From point of view strategic analysis and strategic management, these resources are important to consider when determining the amount of capital to be used."

According to D. Yangel, “the widespread use of value indicators is caused by differences in estimates of the balance sheet (accounting) and market value of assets and, as a consequence, capital. This discrepancy arises primarily due to the increasing role of intangible assets ( business reputation, intellectual developments) and intangible assets (organization’s image, availability of influence resources, development potential, etc.).”

If existing accounting methods make it possible to evaluate and account for objects of the first category (for example, at fair value adopted in IFRS), then the second category cannot be quantified and valued. It is the assessment of the company by market value that allows you to obtain objective results. The system of cost management indicators becomes basic management paradigm, displacing traditional accounting methods for assessing performance. “At the same time, all management tools are subject to the task of maximizing market value; the process of making management decisions is also based on key value factors.”

The concept of managing a company by value has become the object of research by both foreign and domestic authors. For example, T. Copeland, T. Kohler and J. Murrin in their work “Company Value: Valuation and Management” set out the following principles for managing a company by value (Value-based management - VBM):

  • - the main goal of the company’s activities should be to maximize its value;
  • - the value of a company is a general indicator on the basis of which one can evaluate the effectiveness of its activities, as well as the quality of management decisions made.

Company value - this is its assessment by the market. In general, it reflects the value that the owners could receive by selling the business. The principles of organizing company value management are as follows:

  • - determine the management object - categories leading to value maximization;
  • - determine the result of management and the factors ensuring it;
  • - choose a system of meters for factors and results;
  • - development new system motivation - to do only what leads to maximizing the value of the company;
  • - involve employees and managers of all levels in achieving the company's goals.

The organization of cost management is usually based on key cost factors - factors leading to value maximization (analogue - key performance indicators). Key Performance Indicators are specified in the form of systems of analytical interrelated indicators.

System of analytical indicators is a set of separate, logically interrelated indicators linked in a chain in which each subsequent indicator follows from the previous one and characterizes a certain aspect of the company’s performance.

The advantages of indicator systems over single meters are that they:

  • - reduce the possibility of ambiguous interpretation inherent in single meters;
  • - provides quantitative and qualitative information on the financial and economic situation;
  • - have a pyramidal shape, ensuring aggregation of information when moving from bottom to top;
  • - serve as an effective tool for monitoring and monitoring the achievement of set goals.

The following indicators can be used to assess profitability: EVA (economic value added), ROE (return on equity), ROA (return on assets), ROCE (return on equity capital), ROI (return on investment), operating income, gross profit, net profit .

The most well-known systems of analytical indicators are, in particular, the system of return on invested capital (ROI) and the system of measuring return on equity (ROE).

Table 2.4.4.1.2

Characteristics of the indicators that make up the ROI and ROE systems

Index

Characteristic

Invested capital

Capital invested in assets excluding accounts payable (the portion of a company's assets financed by own funds and long-term borrowed sources).

Return on Sales (ROS)

Shows the share of profit in each ruble of revenue earned.

Clean working capital(NWC)

Shows how effectively the company uses investments in working capital, formally - what part of the current assets is financed by the company’s permanent capital (equity capital and long-term borrowed funds.

Turnover of invested capital

Shows what part of the invested capital in the reporting period is covered by sales revenue.

Return on invested capital (ROI)

Shows what share of profit falls on each ruble of the company's invested capital.

Return on equity (ROE)

Shows what part of the profit falls on each ruble of the company’s equity capital; reflects the efficiency of using invested funds and the ability to optimize the financial structure of the company's capital.

Asset turnover (NTAT)

Characterizes the efficiency of using assets to generate revenue, shows what sales volume can be generated by a given amount of assets (how efficiently assets are used, how many times a year they turn over).

Financial leverage

Indicator characterizing financial structure capital; shows the benefits of borrowing funds. Effective if return on assets is lower than return on equity.

Scorecard ROI characterizes the efficiency of using invested capital, and also allows you to assess the degree of improvement in the efficiency of its use.

Company financial analysis system ROE examines the ability of an enterprise to effectively generate profit, reinvest it, and increase turnover. This system is based on a strictly determined factor model, which illustrates the influence of factors of profitability, turnover, capital structure and resources on return on equity, and also allows you to track changes in indicators over time and calculate the topics of economic growth.

This model allows you to coordinate management goals through a set of requirements for individual indicators and organize the planning of indicators in the system on a top-down basis. The ROE indicator is of interest primarily to the owners of the company, since it allows you to improve the quality of management and demonstrates the ability to manage your own and borrowed capital. These models use the following component indicators (Table 2.4.4.1.2).

The listed indicators have a number of disadvantages, because:

  • - do not take into account the degree of risk of decisions made;
  • - indicators of the lower level may conflict with indicators of the higher levels;
  • - do not take into account intangible assets;
  • - the difficulty of an objective monetary valuation of the company’s assets based on the standard financial statements;
  • - illustrate the contradiction between strategic objectives and current financial results.

The trends in the development of the value management indicator system are illustrated in Table. 2.4.4.1.3. That is why the development of the VBM concept has led to the development of value-oriented indicators, which make it possible to transform disparate business lines, processes and tasks into a single whole by creating an organizational chain of command focused on increasing the value of the company. Value management indicators analyze the following categories of company performance.

  • 1. Strategic efficiency of the company- success of management in achieving the strategic goal of the business - maximizing the value of the company.
  • 2. Operational efficiency- displays the results of the company’s activities in terms of sales growth, cost reduction or productivity growth.
  • 3. Efficiency of investment activities- reflects performance investment projects sold by the company.
  • 4. Financial efficiency- reflects the effectiveness of efforts to attract all possible sources of financing for the company, place free funds on the stock market and manage working capital.

All metrics in a value management system can be based on free cash flow estimates or financial reporting data. The evolution of the VBM concept allows us to identify the following trends characteristic of calculating cost indicators:

Table 2.4.4.1.3

Cost Management Indicators: Evolution

Group

indicators

Kinds

indicators

Purpose,

characteristic

Indicators

Cash Flow - payment flow;

EPS Growth - growth in earnings per share; EBIT Growth - operating profit growth;

Revenue Growth - revenue growth.

Company survival goals. Focused on maximizing accounting profits in the short term, predominantly static estimates are used.

Indicators

return

ROIC - return on invested capital;

RONA - return on equity;

ROCE - return on invested capital;

ROE - return on equity.

Company growth goals. Focused on increasing the efficiency of return on funds invested in the company.

Predominantly static estimates are used, the calculation is carried out according to financial accounting and reporting data, and the efficiency of the company as a whole is assessed.

Stage 3: Indicators characterizing return, growth and residual INCOME

MVA - market value added; RCF (CVA) - residual cash flow (added “cash” value)

SVA - shareholder value added;

EVA - economic value added;

RARORAC/RAROC/RORAC - coefficients for risk analysis and evaluation of investment projects, based on adjusting risks in relation to the income stream, and changing the deduction from capital depending on the expected risks in various types activities

Development goals. Focused on increasing the value of the company. Both financial accounting data and external statistical information are used.

They are dynamic instruments.

  • - assume the payment of not only borrowed but also equity capital;
  • - take into account the state of market and information uncertainty and the associated time and economic risks;
  • - focused on dynamics and forecasting, therefore they use discounting methods;
  • - in calculations, measures are used that characterize the availability of “real” money, and not conditional accounting estimates of profit.